Lay Betting Tips: who to avoid on the punt 11/1/24

This week we have identified two runners that the mug punters are likely to steam into on a huge Magic Millions Day across key major venues.

Midway through the card at Flemington, a short-priced favourite appears severely over-bet and is likely to drift significantly in the market as we approach start time.

Meanwhile at the feature Gold Coast meeting, a Melbourne raider seems to have weaker form lines compared to her Sydney counterparts and faces an unfavourable speed map from gate 10.

Avoid both runners at their current short quotes in betting.

Horse Racing Lays on Saturday

Flemington Race 5 #5 New York Lustre $2.20

This runner has won her past two starts but now appears severely over-bet as she steps up to metro Saturday grade.

At her most recent outing, she was a dominant 5.3-length winner at Seymour in what was effectively a “boat race,” where she simply sat outside the leader and was allowed to kick away without facing any real pressure.

This race marks her first attempt down Flemington’s unique straight course, which is always a notable challenge for debutants.

From the outside barrier of 9, she is likely to push forward.

However with no rail or inside horse to guide her, she may struggle to maintain her focus and rhythm, making this a vastly different experience.

She shapes as an excellent risk here and should start at much longer odds.

Avoid.

Gold Coast Race 5 #6 Miss Roumbini $3.50

This Melbourne raider faces a strong field with plenty of depth from both local and Sydney-trained horses.

Her wide draw in gate 10 poses a significant challenge, particularly over the Gold Coast’s 1300-metre course, where much of the race is run around a tight turning track.

There is a considerable risk she could be caught wide throughout, and if that eventuates, her chances of winning are greatly diminished.

With an unfavourable speed map and the typically stronger Sydney form lines engaged, I see far better value elsewhere in the market.

Lay.

Access more betting tips for Saturday racing here.