Moonee Valley Tips for The Moir Stakes 2023

Author: James Beeson

Sep 27, 2023 05:12 PM
Photo: AAP

Odds-on Look-on

The Moir Stakes at Moonee Valley on Friday night has attracted a small yet high-quality field, sure to showcase their speed over the 1000m scamper.

All eyes will be on the brilliant Imperatriz who retuned stylishly here first-up in the McEwen Stakes, when winning with ease.

I’m against the gun Kiwi mare especially at the poison odds, in a race where she'll be back in the field and could regress off the huge first-up performance.

I’ve found one that is far less exposed to the top two in the market, and represents plenty of value.

Keen to get more tips from proven winning Tipsters?

Head to the racing leaderboard and get Tips! .

Track Conditions

The Moonee Valley surface is currently rated a Good 4. With fine conditions predicted for the remainder of the week, this rating will be maintained unless further irrigation is applied

With the rail in the True position for the entire circuit, expect The Valley to play to its typical on-pace bias.

However given the race club has been under pressure to address this trend, the inside may be over-watered which would see lanes 4-6 preferred.

Watch early races for any guide on fast lanes and on/off speed biases.

Moonee Valley Race 7 – Moir Stakes (1000m)

The Map

Expect the on-pace profiles of Rothfire (1), Asfoora (6), Zoustyle (3) and Uncommon James (7) to all charge forward here and attack for the lead.

I expect Rothfire (1) to be the main “lead at all costs” type, and should be finding the front with Uncommon James (7) siting outside him.

Asfoora (6) may have a brief look for the front, however should land just in behind the leading pair.

The key run-on profiles that will relish a warp speed tempo are Imperatriz (5) and The Inferno (8), who will be charging late if they overdo it up front.

Rothfire

The Favourite

Imperatriz could not have been more impressive winning here first-up, where she unleashed hell late to come home over the top.

No doubt she is all class, however she's very well found at the price for this ($1.70) and I expect there to be a number of professional teams looking to take her on.

This is much deeper race and she has a few “chinks” here with both Asfoora and Uncommon James likely to be in front of her.

She comes up an excellent risk and will be forced to pull out another extraordinary run to gun down a few runners that may be off and gone.

Happy to oppose whilst she’s in red figures.

Best Bet Tips

Uncommon James looks the smart bet here.

Being first-up, he is the least exposed from a market perspective. This means that we can get a price which is less over-bet when compared to the flashing light runs of both Imperatriz and Asfoora.

Being a Group 1 event, expect the stable to have him fully wound up and he has the natural tactical speed to take a position anywhere they choose.

If he gets Imperatriz chasing from a long way out, he can hold on.

Asfoora is absolutely flying and another runner with the tactical speed to be in the first half of this field.

The only knock is that she is well exposed now after the big first-up win at Caulfield. However, I doubt she's reached her ceiling yet and could easily improve off that run.

This would have been her target race all along, to achieve the Group 1 resume tick for her broodmare value.

You can be confident that shrewd trainer Henry Dwyer will have her primed.

Imperatriz could be in for a huge Spring and is on track to be a superstar mare, if she's not already close to that status.

Her win first-up in the Group 2 McEwen Stakes was simply breath-taking. As a result however, the market is all over her and the price is likely to be compressed beyond true value.

She is also some risk to regress and race flat second-up.

Whilst the form suggests she'll win, I have to be against her at an odds-on quote with the value betting propositions to be found elsewhere

Impratriz