Melbourne Cup Tips 2023

Author: Nic Ashman

Nov 06, 2023 07:00 PM
Photo: Getty

Nic Ashman covers the field

The 163rd running of the Melbourne Cup shapes up to be another titanic clash of the best staying thoroughbred talent from around the globe.

Once again this year's edition will pit a small number of Australian horses against a wave of international raiders eager to etch their name into history.

Nic Ashman casts his eye over the bumper 24 horse field to reveal his verdict on who will reign supreme in the time-honoured 3200m contest.

Jockey

1. GOLD TRIP (2)

J: J McDonald / T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace / 58.5kg

Defending champ who came out on top last year two starts after finishing 5th in the Turnbull Stakes.

Won the Turnbull this year, and the last three Aussie Melbourne Cup winners have run in the Turnbull.

Current Odds: $5.50

2. ALENQUER (9)

J: D Oliver / T: Michael Moroney / 56.5kg

Not going well enough, but his best run in Australia was last start and it was the first time he got out to a staying distance.

Improver?.

Current Odds: $51.00

3. WITHOUT A FIGHT (16)

J: Mark Zahra / T: M & S Freedman / 56.5kg

Caulfield Cup winner that hasn’t run a bad race in 2023.

Jockey Mark Zahra chose to ride him over Gold Trip.

Current Odds: $6.00

4. BREAKUP (18)

J: K Matsuyama / T: Tatsuya Yoshioka / 55.5kg

Beaten comfortably in the Caulfield Cup when first-up, but he's a second-up speicalist [4:2-10].

Watch for improvement

Current Odds: $19.00

Vauban 5. VAUBAN (3)

J: Ryan Moore / T: William Mullins / 55kg

Irish raider who won a 2816m race by 7.5L during the Royal Ascot carnival. \

Hasn’t raced since August and yet to win in 3 first-up runs.

Current Odds: $3.90

6. SOULCOMBE (4)

J: J Moreira / T: Chris Waller / 53.5kg

Huge run in the Turnbull Stakes and then bombed the start and charged home in the Caulfield Cup.

Flemington specialist, weighted to win and trained by grand final specialist, Chris Waller.

Current Odds: $10.00

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Absurde 7. ABSURDE (8)

J: Zac Puton / T: William Mullins / 53kg

Ebor Hcp winner and that race has proven a good guide for more than a decade.

Hasn't missed a top 2 finish in 7 starts on dry tracks.

Current Odds: $16.00

8. RIGHT YOU ARE (15)

J: John Allen / T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace / 53kg

Sat on a hot tempo and was gutsy in Caulfield Cup.

He's missed a place just once in 6 starts this track.

The stable won this race last year.

Current Odds: $51

9. VOW AND DECLARE (19)

J: W Egan / T: Danny O'Brien / 53kg

The 2019 Melbourne Cup winner who has returned to form recently, having run 2nd in the Group 1 Caulfield Stakes as well as the Moonee Valley Gold Cup at his past two runs.

Current Odds: $22.50

10. CLEVELAND (23)

J: M Dee / T: Kris Lees / 52kg

Last start winner of the Moonee Valley Gold Cup and wears the colours of Lloyd Williams, who has won more Melbourne Cups (7) than any owner on the planet.

Current Odds: $21.00

Ashrun 11. ASHRUN (11)

J: K McEvoy / T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace / 51.5kg

Good run in the 2020 Meblourne Cup, then sidelined through injury for 3 years.

Returned this Spring and ran a bottler in the Geelong Cup.

Drops in weight, won 4th-up previously and Kerrin McEvoy knows how to win the race having won 3 Cups.

Current Odds: $34.00

D Junior 12. DAQIANSWEET JUNIOR (12)

J: D Stackhouse / T: Phillip Stokes / 51.5kg

Needs racing under the belt to get fit each campaign.

Now five runs in, he has won 5 from 10 when 5th-up or deeper in a preperation.

Proven at the trip.

Current Odds: $81.00

13. OKITA SOUSHI (20)

J: Dylan Gibbons / T: Joseph O'Brien / 51.5kg

Beaten comfortably in the Caulfield Cup and although he's won at the distance, does appear to be up against it .

Current Odds: $91.00

Sheraz 14. SHERAZ (22)

J: Beau Mertens / T: Chris Waller / 51.5kg

Never won on a dry track.

Best to drink the Sheraz and not bet on it.

Current Odds: $101.00

15. LASTOTCHKA (21)

J: Craig Williams / T: M Price & M Kent / 51kg

Has some ability but all her form is on wet tracks.

Hard to form a conclusion.

Perhaps one for the exotic players.

Current Odds: $26.00

16. MAGICAL LAGOON (7)

J: R Du Plessis / T: C Waller / 51kg

Her sectional times suggest this is a stamina horse.

It's no surprise her best run since arriving in Australia was last start at her first go beyond 2000m.

Might improve sharply out to 3200m.

Current Odds: $101.00

Military Mission 17. MILATARY MISSION (5)

J: Rachel King / T: G Waterhouse & A Bott / 51kg

Won the Group 3 Newcastle Gold Cup, Group 2 Herbert Power at last three starts and was close up at Group 1 level in the Metropolitan Handicap.

Hall OF Famer Gai Waterhouse trains.

Current Odds: $31.00

18. SERPENTINE (1)