It’s Friday night racing under the lights at Moonee Valley, setting the stage for an exciting Black Caviar Lightning Stakes weekend.
With the rail out 7m, expect the track to favour on-speed runners and those positioned on the rail, while those coming from the back could struggle.
However, tempo will play a crucial role, and if the leaders overdo it up front, it could set the race up for swoopers late.
Let’s get straight into the bet for the night.
Jack continues to nail his best bets at a good rate!
Ethan Brown takes the ride and he is in exceptional form, striking at 21% from his last 100 rides and showing a 24.2% profit on turnover (POT) when backing him flat stake.
The map looks ideal, as there isn’t a lot of early speed drawn inside this filly.
Look for Brown to be positive out of the gates, roll across without too much effort and land in a winning position.
Last start at Pakenham, Dreams had no luck, covering extra ground three-wide without cover, yet still closed off with the 7th fastest last 200m and 5th fastest last 100m of the night.
Stepping up to 1200m around The Valley, where speed plays a big factor, sets up perfectly for her to win.
I think this horse should be sub $2.50, and I’m keen to kick off the weekend with a winner.
There are loads of tips for today's racing in our Horse Racing Tips market at theGreatTipOff.com.