It was another dominant week for our Lays with both Aleppo Pine and the Champ, Mr Brightside going down.
Hopefully you followed us in and didn't do your dough in the first week of Autumn..
This week, we focus on two favourites at Flemington who both appear severely over-bet and represent excellent risks at their current quotes in betting.
In the feature Group 1 of the day (Black Caviar Lightning), the favourite has all the attributes to be rock-bottom odds, coming off a high-profile Coolmore Stud Stakes win and with the leading rider booked.
Later in the day, a Ciaron Maher-trained runner is stepping up in grade and must overcome a tricky speed map.
Jimmy Beeson continues to nail his lays at a good rate.
Looking for more of his tips? His Early Market Movers drop Friday.
This talented three-year-old is now far too exposed in the market following his high-profile win in the Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes last spring.
With J Mac booked to ride, the hype has reached fever pitch and this runner is now severely over-bet.
This is a high-quality field featuring multiple runners who will be fully wound up and targeting a Group 1 victory to enhance their stud prospects.
Switzerland is very good, but this price is pure poison in such a deep race.
I’m more than happy to oppose him at the current quote.
Avoid.
JMac riding Switzerland to victory
Won well last start but now faces the tougher challenge of stepping up to Benchmark 84 level at Flemington.
This is never an easy task on a genuine Saturday metro card.
The eye-catching last-start victory will have casual punters hooked, as will the high-profile trainer, but the current price appears significantly over-bet.
With no early speed drawing gate 1 is far from ideal, as it will likely force her to settle at the rear and require her to circle the entire field to finish off.
If the rail is playing hot and leader bias emerges at Flemington, expect her price to drift to $4+.
Even if the track allows horses to run on, it is still a challenge when she won’t be in the moving line early.
She should be flashing home late, but several others hold a strong advantage from a speed map perspective and are already proven at this level.
Lay.
Access more betting tips for Saturday racing here.