It was another perfect week for our Saturday Lays with both Manaal and See What I See going down by big margins.
This week we focus on two runners that come up as excellent risks in betting at their current prices, and should drift in the market as we approach start time.
At Rosehill a high-profile and expensive 30 million dollar colt returns and is desperate to secure a Group 1 race for his CV.
Therefore I doubt the stable will be out to gas him here and he should have plenty of improvement to come.
While at Caulfield an “off-season” Winter star is forced to take on the genuine Spring horses and looks severely over-bet at the current price.
Jimmy Beeson is 11/12 on lays over the past month.
Looking for more of his tips? His Early Market Movers drop Friday.
Rosehill Race 6 #1 Storm Boy $2.50
Storm Boy returns to racing with Coolmore looking to recoup their massive $30 million plus investment.
The pressure is right on for the yard to get it right with so much value at stake, and I doubt Waterhouse / Bott will be looking to gas him here when a Group 1 target is the main goal of this preparation.
Look for him to be the “flashing light” run coming out of this, however he should be much better suited with a run under his belt and stretching out to 1400m and beyond.
The market should gravitate toward the race-day fit Gatsbys, and as we approach start time I expect $3+ will be widely available for Storm Boy with most operators.
Avoid.
Caulfield Race 5 #2 Recommendation $2.20
Going to pot the popular Ciaron Maher galloper here, who faces a much stronger field than what he has seen in the recent wins.
He will know he is in a proper race here with plenty of class and ability elsewhere, many of which should have the quality to challenge him.
The market appears to be getting carried away with the “off-season” Winter wins, where he was impressive but beat nothing!
This is a completely different set-up in a hot race where I doubt he will get it all his own way.
He is another runner where I expect the market to be heavily against late in betting.
Lay.
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