This week’s lay selections on Cup Day included two favourites that appear severely over-bet and should drift in the market as we approach start time.

Early in the day at Randwick, a popular last-start winner faces a tricky speed map in a race that lacks tempo, where the leaders could be off and gone.

While at Flemington a false favourite arrives after rece nt racing in Queensland, where his recent runs in the sunshine state represent weak form and provide an excellent opportunity for punters to take him on.

Horse Racing Lays on Saturday

Randwick Race 1 #1 Flying Bandit $1.80

Lightly raced last start winner who looks smart, however is now forced to take a few established hard-heads here for the first time.

He is also likely to get back in this field where at this early stage of the day the Randwick surface does tend to favour on-speed profiles.

He is steadily creeping up in the weights now after being penalised for last start and has to carry 59.5kg here.

He may be reaching a weight mark now where the addition impost should be telling late.

With a lack of speed in the race expect a few of these to race away off the front and with the top weight I expect he will struggle to pick up those in the premier positions, forward of mid-field.

Avoid.

Flemington Race 3 #4 Cloudland $2.30

Comes up poison odds here following several moderate Queensland performances, which fail to justify the short quote on a big day at Flemington.

He had every opportunity in his last start as the favourite at Eagle Farm, where, despite an ideal run close to the pace, he was far from dynamic in the late stages and appeared to be racing flat to my eye.

They have found J Mac and whilst he is a positive rider change, he also ensures the price will be over-bet by the recreational customers and mug punters.

I expect a significant market drift toward $3.00 as the professionals gap him late.

Come start time there should be a much better price available with most operators.

Lay.

Access more betting tips for Saturday racing here.