This week we focus on two last-start winners that both appear over-bet due to the associated recency bias.
At Randwick, a last start winner steps back up to Stakes grade and finds a deep filed and tricky speed map.
While at headquarters, another last-start winner is having his first look at the unique Flemington straight and presents as a 2YO high-risk proposition.
Jimmy Beeson continues to correctly highlight the dud favourites in feature races.
Looking for more of his tips? His Early Market Movers drop Friday.
Rosehill Race 8 #11 War Eternal $3.10
He won well last start at Randwick and is now rising to Stakes grade, where he appears over-bet due to the recency bias of his effort last time out.
His barrier manners have never been the best and he faces a sticky low draw here.
Any hesitation when the gates open and he is likely to land 3 back the rail or worse, needing plenty of luck to get out or weave a passage.
The rider switch from Jason Collett to Rachel King is also a significant downgrade, whereby he is likely to need a strong rider to extricate and drive him home aggressively over the concluding stages.
This field has plenty of stakes grade experience elsewhere and this looks like a tough assignment.
Avoid.
Flemington Race 3 #2 First Settler $2.20
Above average 2YO who had a dominant debut win at Caulfield, and arrives here for his first look at the unique Flemington straight.
The completely different set-up appears an excellent opportunity to take him on and the wide draw doesn't seem to be as good as some are making out.
Several horses are expected to settle forward of him in the run, who should hold an advantage as per the typically close-to-speed favours for Flemington straight racing.
I can see him charging late however running out of runway to reel in those forward of him, over the 1000m scamper.
Lay
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