This week, we’re focusing on two high-profile horses that seem to be over-bet, riding the wave of past successes and lingering hype.
Midway through the card, a Group 1-winning filly still carries the allure of her 2yo triumphs.
Although she returned well last start, she may now be searching for more ground.
Later in the day, a highly touted horse is making a return but has shown concerning signs with a poor trial leading into this race.
This could trigger a notable market drift, making her one to approach with caution.
Jimmy Beeson continues to nail his Saturday Lays.
Looking for more of his tips? His Early Market Movers drop Friday.
Randwick Race 6 #1 Manaal $3.00
Manaal still carries the hype of her Group 1 2yo heroics and while she returned well in the Silver Shadow, I’m not convinced 1200m is her ideal trip.
She strikes me as a filly who will show her best over more ground.
At this distance she faces sharper fillies and while she’s likely to be finishing strongly, others like Drifting could have skipped away by then.
There’s a chance they’ll try to ride her more forward with fitness on her side, but that could be risky.
Pushing her out of her natural comfort zone in a Group-class race with intense pressure can easily backfire.
In this race, I’d rather side with Ameena and Drifting and wait for Manaal to step up in distance before backing her.
Avoid.
Randwick Race 9 #8 Amelia’s Jewel $3.10
I anticipate the market will drift away from Amelia’s Jewel closer to the race, especially after what seemed like a very average trial.
It’s possible she hasn’t returned at her best.
The pressure is on the new stable to manage this high-profile horse, now under their care after a prominent owner transferred her.
Sometimes, this kind of transition can harm a horse’s performance.
She faces a field with solid depth, far from the soft reintroduction her connections might have hoped for.
With several Group-class veterans in the mix, she’s got a real challenge on her hands.
Her typical racing pattern has her settling back especially this early in her preparation, and she’ll need a lot to go her way to work through the field and catch the leaders.
This could be the race where her hype diminishes, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see her price drift significantly by start time.
Lay.
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