Once again we nailed our two lays of the day last Saturday with both I Found You and Iknowastar going under at poison odds.
This week we focus on two Randwick runners that appear severely over-bet due to their last start win profiles, with several factors against both.
Early in the day, a hype 2yo for Gai/Bott arrives following a flattering Canterbury debut win. He must now face the starter with a completely different set-up on the bigger Randwick track.
While later in the day all betting operators can’t believe their luck. Mug punters are happy to take any price about an import who sets up beautifully to regress off his debut Australian win.
Jimmy Beeson continues to correctly highlight the dud favourites in feature races.
Looking for more of his tips? His Early Market Movers drop Friday.
Randwick Race 1 #1 I Wanaruah $2.20
He won well at Canterbury on debut, however faces a much deeper field here and switches to the bigger Randwick track which is a completely different set-up.
He led last time out and simply booted away in a run which was flattered by on-pace favours.
A more forgiving circle and longer straight at Randwick will allow a number of his rivals here the opportunity to settle and run on.
The outside draw (gate 11) is also of some concern.
If any runner to his inside decides to kick up, he will be forced to do some work if they want to lead at all costs.
He looks unsuited on this occasion with plenty against, in a field that has talent elsewhere.
Avoid.
Randwick Race 8 #9 Bear On The Loose $2.00
He has to be the most well-found horse nationwide on Saturday!
This is following his debut Australian win last time out, when impressive in Benchmark 78 grade at Rosehill.
Now every man and his dog wants to be with him and the price is severely over-bet, with all operators aware they can lay any price they choose to the mugs.
He comes up an excellent risk in this as he is forced to step up to Benchmark 88 grade after beating up on a very weak field last start.
I find these imports can often regress off a big debut run and I’m expecting that could be the case here, with a horse that fits that profile perfectly.
Lay.
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