This week, we have identified two excellent risks at Pakenham that come up as poison prices for favourites and face significant challenges to overcome.
Early in the day, a mare steps up in grade to Benchmark 78 level where she is likely to find the better-quality opposition harder to beat.
Midway through the card, another mare returns from a short let-up, raising alarm bells about a possible setback.
Avoid both runners at their current short quotes in betting.
Jimmy Beeson continues to nail his lays at a good rate.
Looking for more of his tips? His Early Market Movers drop Friday.
This last-start winner is stepping up sharply in grade to Benchmark 78 class, where she will face stronger and more experienced opposition.
While she possesses tactical speed, several runners drawn to her outside also have early pace and are likely to apply pressure within the first 200 metres.
To maintain the lead, she will need to jump very cleanly.
If she faces pressure from the outside, there is a high risk she could end up buried along the inside rail.
This is a position that does not suit her usual racing pattern and could create significant difficulties.
I anticipate a notable market drift here, with $3+ likely to be widely available closer to start time.
Avoid.
A quality mare who strikes a good race here but may be disadvantaged by a six-week let-up, raising questions about her fitness.
The short break could indicate a potential issue and diving into the current short odds seems high-risk.
Her last win at Flemington came after an ideal run, where she was “blessed” with all the favours.
However, from gate 7 in this high-pressure race, it’s unlikely she will enjoy the same fortune.
The rider change to S Osbourne is a downgrade compared to her recent jockeys, and in a race where elite guidance may be critical, a lack of local experience could prove costly.
There are several factors working against her on this occasion, and the current price represents pure poison.
Lay.
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