This week we take on two short-priced favourites that both appear severely over-bet and come up as excellent risks in their respective races.
Early in the day at Eagle Farm a high-priced colt appears to be under plenty of pressure to perform and this may be a “forced run” to satisfy the high expectations of owners.
Whilst at Ballarat, a last start Maiden winner must leap up in grade to take on the more seasoned horses now.
Avoid these mug money munchers at all costs.
Jimmy Beeson continues to nail his lays at a good rate.
Looking for more of his tips? His Early Market Movers drop Friday.
Eagle Farm Race 1 #1 Lockyer $2.00
The pressure is right on here to have this high-priced $800,000 colt perform. This is often a recipe for disaster when a yard pushes a horse early, when possibly not ready.
The instructions from the ownership group would be to get him going early and get him to Magic Millions Day.
That is certainly easier said than done and I expect this is the forced run to get him there.
He was good on debut when placing 2nd of 9 here over 1000m however that was against nothing, and the market drift did indicate he wasn’t ready.
While the step up here to 1200m may suit with some additional fitness, diving into the poison odds of $2 looks pure madness.
Throw in the widest draw in the field and this looks a huge lay opportunity.
Ballarat Race 2 #3 Dream All Day $2.00
Was an impressive (3 Length) winner here first-up when ticking off the Maiden tag.
However she is now forced to climb in grade, where she appears over-bet here due to the nature of the last start win.
Her natural racing profile is to get back in the field, hence she is likely to need a well-timed run to come home over the top.
There is no way some of these more seasoned horses will allow her to get it so easily.
If she was truly flying at home I’d expect the stable would have booked a leading rider, especially as she races for the high-profile Waikato Stud.
The booking of a lesser-quality jockey here indicates she may not be going as well as the market predicts.
She will be charging home late however may find one or two better here, especially now she is up in grade.
Avoid.
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