4/4/20 Randwick Tips for the Sires Produce and Australian Derby
-
- Author: Mick GannonApr 02, 2020 12:57 PM
- Photo: AAP
Feature race previews and best bets
Saturday's Randwick meeting is arguably the best day of racing on the NSW calendar.
What a card we have ahead of us for the first day of the Championships, with nine Group races and the rich Country Championship slotted in for good measure.
With up to 30mm of rain predicted to fall in the lead-up, expect the weather gods to play a huge part in the outcome of many races.
Randwick Track Condition
For the latest insight into how the Randwick track is expected to play, read our preview of the TJ Smith Stakes and Doncaster Mile here.
Randwick Race 6 - Sires Produce Stakes (1400m)
The Map 
The speed looks to be moderate in this year's Sires Produce Stakes, with both Cultural Amnesia (11) and Holyfield (6) likely to go forward and contest the lead.
Mamaragan (2) steps up to the 1400m for the first time and can sit behind the leaders for an economical run.
Prague (15) has race fitness on his side and you'd expect Avdulla to be positive from the wide gate.
The Favourite 
Mamaragan has been well supported from $4.40 into $3.40, but looks a huge risk.
His run in the Golden Slipper was good, where he finished 2.8 lengths third. However in what was an on-pace dominated race, he did little work in the run and didn't appear to be savaging the line.
Drawn barrier two here, he could be in the worst part of the track come Race 6 which is a major concern. Given he wasn't strong late last start, there is question marks over his ability to run a strong 1400m on heavy going.
Analysis and Race Tips 
We're looking for runners who will relish a rain-affected 1400m and have settled on two runners who represent value.
Prague $8 had excuses in the Golden Slipper and if you swapped his run with that of Mamaragan, I think Prague would of beat him home.
I do concede that he's now at his sixth run in his first preparation, so there is a risk he's been up too long. However, he is rock hard fit which will be a huge advantage on a testing surface.
Look for jockey Brenton Avdulla to push forward from the wide draw to settle just off the pace, before charging hard to the line.
Cultural Amnesia $18 arrives here via a Kensington maiden win and will be looking to sneak under the radar.
His last start win over the 1400m was arrogant when he was eased down to the post, defeating Rock My Wand by 2.3 lengths.
Rock My Wand has since franked that form with a 4.5 length win at Rosehill on Wednesday.
While this is an obvious rise in grade, he's shown the ability to handle a rain affected track at all three starts and will be ready to peak now fourth-up.
Look for Tim Clark to push forward to lead in an attempt to dictate to his rivals out in front. If Clark can carve out some even sectionals, this galloper will fight out the finish.
Randwick Race 7 - Australian Derby (2400m)
The Map
The Waterhouse/Bott trained Sacramento (3) is the nominated leader for the Australian Derby and will no doubt give a sight out in front. Quick Thinker (6), Warning (10) and Sherwood Forest (12) look the three most likely to go forward and take a sit behind the pace.
The Favourite
Castelvecchio opened $3.50 and has been well supported into $2.90. His Rosehill Guineas win was impressive, with full credit going to Craig Williams who took advantage of the good draw and was able to sit more forward in the run.
From barrier 9, he'll be forced to race back and wide this time and if the track deteriorates late in the day this could be a plus.
He's the classiest horse in the race, which is backed up by a second in last year's Cox Plate.
The major concern is that he's yet to be tested beyond 2040m and could be vulnerable over 2400m on a Heavy surface.
Analysis and Race Tips
This year's edition looks reminiscent of the great 1996 ATC Derby where superstars of the turf, Octagonal, Saintly, Filante and Nothin' Leica Dane went head-to-head.
Warning $5.50 has been set for this run and arrives here fourth-up and ready to peak.
He's one of only two runners in the field (Sherwood Forest) to record a win at 2400m or beyond. That win came in the VRC Derby over 2500m, when he defeated Shadow Hero by 10-lengths.
From barrier 10, look for Tommy Berry to ride positively to ensure his nearest rivals Castelvecchio and Shadow Hero will be spotting him a decent start.
If that unfolds, this could turn out to be a true staying test with those in the chasing pack set to struggle in their pursuit of this genuine stayer.
