Victoria Derby

With rain forecast in the lead-up to Stakes Day, Flemington looks set to be rated as Soft 5, with the rail likely to move out 6m the entire circuit.  As it's the third day of the carnival and with light showers about, the fresh ground towards the middle of the track is likely to be the best going throughout the day.    Mark tipped 3 winners and two-placegetters on Derby Day. Below are three of his top selections for Flemington. Never miss Mark's selections again! Click for your free tip alert so you're always in the know.    Flemington Race 5 Darley Classic 1200m Nature Strip jumps from the widest barrier and will lead them up with ease. The Bostonian and Loving Gaby have both drawn inside, can hold a forward spot in the run, with the favourite Santa Ana Lane likely to settle last.  Santa Ana Lane loves the Flemington straight and won this race last year. It took a brilliant three-year-old to beat him in the Everest. In a small field, Mark Zahra can sit closer in the run. From there, Santa Ana Lane can unleash his enormous turn of foot, to fly over the top of them. Nature Strip was superb in the Everest and also loves Flemington.  Waller has him going better than ever and he poses the greatest threat to the favourite Rock Magic's run behind Loving Gaby in the Manikato was great. He had the fastest sectionals from the 1000m to the finish and is a big watch.     Mark's Race 5 Tips 1st Santa Ana Lane 2nd Nature Strip 3rd Rock Magic   Flemington Race 6 TAB Matriarch Stakes 2000m Amangiri, Rondinella, Greysful Glamour and Miss Siska will all look to go forward from the gates.  Girl Tuesday meets Amangiri 8.5kg better for finishing 1.15L behind her last time out at the Valley and has been racing against the A-grade horses in Sydney. Spanish Reef continues to fly under punter's radar each start. Her win in the Ladies Day Vase two starts back at Caulfield, was terrific.   Rondinella comes in very well at the weights here. She has very good form finishing close behind Spanish Reef and Princess Jenni of late and looks primed for a strong run here.     Mark's Race 6 Tips 1st Girl Tuesday 2nd Spanish Reef 3rd Rondinella   Flemington Race 9 MSS Security Sprint 1200m Gailo Chop, Aristia, Hartnell and Harlem can all press forward, setting up a fast tempo.  The Kiwi, Melody Belle was dominant in the Empire Rose and comes into this rich Group One in career best form.  She's two from two at the distance and will relish any of the predicted rain Flemington is set to receive. Hartnell lines-up for his last career-run here. He'll be ridden positively from the wide gate and given his great record at the top-level, there is little doubt that he'll once again be fighting out the finish.  Humidor is a track and distance specialist and if he bounces back to form, he can fight out the finish at attractive odds.       Mark's Race 9 Tips 1st Melody Belle 2nd Hartnell 3rd Humidor   Only take tips from winning punters and to know if they are, check their profit stats listed with all free horse racing tips in our Tip Market.

Distance 2500m Grade Group 1 Track Rating Good 4  Prizemoney $2,000,000 Class 3yo Set Weights  2018 winner Extra Brut ($10) Whilst some owners choose to dodge the VRC Derby due to the perceived toll it takes on an expensive young three-year-old horse, most are addicted to winning it at all costs. This year's edition like all others, poses the fascinating question of each runner's ability to run the brutal 2500m journey right out. Lungs will burn and the winner will be the horse who is a superior staying athlete.        Flemington Track Traits The Flemington surface is currently rated a Good 4, with the rail in the true position for the entire circuit. There are light showers predicted to fall in Melbourne on both Friday and Saturday, however the surface should cope due to Flemington's excellent drainage. With the rail positioned true, there may be a slight preference for horses who travel up the inside and on-speed.  As always, a close watch is advised early to determine any fast lanes or bias.      Racing Market Movers Soul Patch is the early market mover and after opening at $6.50, he's been very well supported all the way into $4.40. The other well fancied runner is Thought Of That, who has plenty of admirers and is $4.20 to $3.60. Race favourite Shadow Hero has drifted early out to $3.40 from 3.00 openers.    Key Runners #1 Shadow Hero $3.00 > $3.40 Has been dominant at his past two, where he showed well above average staying ability on both occasions. He has Castelvecchio form, where he beat the Cox Plate runner-up with ease in the Spring Champion Stakes last start. The horse is clearly very well found in the market and just needs to hold the current good form to be fighting out the finish. Top hope.    #2  Soul Patch $6.50 > $4.40 Is on a steep upward trajectory after finishing midfield in the Caulfield Guineas, before braining them over 2040m in the traditional lead up race, the Moonee Valley Vase. Looks a genuine stayer with a high value turn of foot. I love the timing of his racing program, where he's emerged as a contender here late.  Well exposed now in betting ($4.40) following the last start win, yet must be considered a leading contender in this. Yes.     #3 Thought Of That $3.60 Is the subject of controversy after the "greenhorn" owner sacked regular rider Linda Meech in favour of Mark Zahra. He is the likely leader and if left alone out in front, will give a great kick as they run for home.   Expect plenty to be cheering this horse to lose given the negative publicity, however you can't deny his claims following back-to-back wins. Leading chance.   #4 Warning $9.00   Was the victim of a slowly run race in the Caulfield Classic last start, where he got well back in the field and had no chance to run down the leader Thought Of That. Given more tempo here and ridden closer, I suspect that he can bounce back and win. He appears a horse that the mug punters will drop off due to his last start losing margin of 3.75 lengths.  The current $9 price looks an absolute spoil. Goes on top.   #8 Long Jack $18 Kiwi raider who has shown enough in all Australian starts to suggest he is up to this.  The Baker/Forsman stable are the best in the business when it comes to preparing young stayers and they will have this colt ready to fire. Although the last start win was against "B graders" in the Geelong Classic, he can take improvement from that and be much better here. Very wary and he is a must include in wider exotic bet types.    #10 Southern Moon $14 Led and was run down right on the line in the Geelong Classic to finish 2 of 16. Again that looks the weaker form-line and I suspect that he would need to improve significantly to feature here.  The stable are flying and the rider Billy Egan is winning as he likes. Both of these factors will help, and the great unknown of 2500m could suit.  Can surprise a few at odds.    #11 Relucent $19 The Waller factor is always hard to ignore and whilst the form leading into this race ooks second rate, he is still hard to ignore. As is the case for all runners here, the 2500m is a complete mystery and anything could happen over the brutal trip. A significant push in betting late would create plenty of interest. Watch markets.   Of The Others #5 Huntly Castle comes via the stronger form-lines of the Caulfield Classic and Super Impose. Although he was beaten in each, he wasn't too far off the winners. He has to be considered a good hope to be one of the stronger ones close to home and we will receive cricket score odds to find out. Could surprise.     Best Racing Tips 1st  Warning 2nd  Shadow Hero   3rd  Soul Patch 4th  Long Jack  We identify the track experts for Saturday's Victoria Derby by listing tipsters posting Flemington tips in order of their profitability. 

All eyes turn to Flemington on Saturday, as Derby Day marks the start of the Melbourne Cup carnival and the home stretch of this year's Spring carnival.    The track is currently rated a Good 4, with the rail in the true position. With 5-8mm of rain forecast to fall in Melbourne on Saturday, there is a chance of a minor downgrade to a Soft track.  Despite the chance of showers, punters should expect the track to play fair and give all runners their chance.    Mark tipped 4 winners and 3 place-getters on the Cox Plate card last Saturday. Below are three of his top selections for Flemington. Never miss Mark's selections again! Get your free tip alerts here so you're always in the know.    Flemington Race 5 Tips: Empire Rose Stakes 1600m (Group 1) Savatiano and Miss Siska will lead here, with Spanish Reef and Baccarat Baby to settle behind them. Melody Belle is a multiple group one winner in New Zealand and she looks the testing material. She has drawn wide in barrier 13, but that won’t worry her. Expect her to take a sit just off the fence and when the whips start cracking, she can make a sustained run from the 400m mark and prove too strong. Spanish Reef (6) is an under-rated mare and has had four wins from six starts at the track. She will get the run of the race up front and is a clear second pick. Princess Jenni (10) is a quality mare and should be forgiven for her Toorak Handicap run and assessed on her second-up performance. If she can sit mid-field in the run here, there is no reason she can't run a place.    Mark's Race 5 Tips 1st Melody Belle 2nd Spanish Reef 3rd Princess Jenni   Flemington Race 6 Tips: Coolmore Stud Stakes 1200m (Group 1) Plenty of speed engaged here with Bivouac, Cosmic Force, Cardiff and Sartorial Splendor all front runners. Microphone (2) was a little plain first-up but loves the Flemington straight and from barrier two, he can lead or take a sit. He'll be flying late and with even luck along the inside, he can get back in the winner’s circle. Bivouac (3) was the unlucky runner in the Manikato Stakes. He has built a terrific record after beating the likes of Yes Yes Yes and Exceedance in previous runs. He has an incredible turn of foot and will definitely be in the mix. Exceedance (11) has been set for this race and is capable of running some incredible sectionals. The blinkers go on for the first-time, which could spark significant improvement.   Mark's Race 6 Tips 1st Microphone 2nd Bivouac 3rd Exceedance   Flemington Race 7 Tips: Victoria Derby 2500M (Group 1) Thought Of That looks set to jump to the front and you can expect him to string them out.  Shadow Hero from barrier ten should be able to sit mid-field with cover. Shadow Hero could not have been more impressive last start, beating Castelvecchio in the Spring Champion Stakes over 2000m at Randwick. He is a big striding horse and the Flemington track should suit him. Look for him to take off after the leader 400m from home and charge over the top to win convincingly. Warning (11) was impressive over the 1800m at Flemington, before he was forced to do all the hard work at Caulfield last start. He will grow a leg stepping out to the 2500m here and is well suited back at headquarters. The blinkers worked a treat for Soul Patch (2) last start.  He proved far too good over the 2040m at the Valley. The inside barrier doesn't suit his racing pattern, so he'll need some luck. He is a very strong place chance.   Mark's Race 9 Tips 1st Shadow Hero (Best Bet) 2nd Warning 3rd Soul Patch For more selections at Melbourne's Head Quarters of racing this Saturday go to the Flemington Tips market where hundreds of punters and media form experts post their tips and best bets.

It’s Christmas time for punters as this year’s Spring racing season enters the final straight, culminating with the four-day Melbourne Cup carnival. We kick things off on Saturday with Australia’s most prestigious day of racing, Derby Day, which features nine Group races headlined by the $2M Group One Victoria Derby. Derby Day often separates the men from the boys as the deep and competitive fields cause plenty of headaches, with punters hard pressed to stand out a single runner to carry their hard-earned. It is for this reason that we suggest betting wide, playing safe and opting for a Quadrella.  If you’re going to pull off a Quaddie there is no better day to do it than Derby Day, with some thumping pay-outs in recent years. The 2016 Quaddie pool was just over $32K, whilst the year before totalled $12.5K.  This week we have set out to navigate the minefield of the Derby Day Quaddie in an attempt to give you the best chance of getting a slice of this year’s pie. We're confident that we've found the right form lines this year and have narrowed our selections to 54 combinations- with a $50 bet that will give you a 92.5% stake of the pool.   Leg 1 R6 - Empire Rose Stakes #2 Invincibella $10 Was dominant two starts back at Flemington and then got too far out of her ground at Caulfield last start, before powering home late to run second. Well suited back to Flemington and is one of two Chris Waller trained runners who looks to have the race at their mercy. #3 Shillelagh $8 Her last victory was in WFA company in the Kennedy Mile (Cantala Stakes) one-year ago. That win came third-up into her preparation, with Chris Waller again opting for the same formula leading into this.  Her two runs this preparation have been huge, expect her to be peaking for this run and prove too good for her rivals.    Leg 2 R7 - VRC Derby #1 Thinkin' Big $3.10  Returned to the winner's stall last start when he led all the way. He is rock hard fit, and with his expected forward position running them along, should prove hard to run down.  #4 Stars of Currum $9  Relished the rise in distance when he broke his maiden in Group 3 company at Moonee Valley last start. Can't see any reason why he won't enjoy the extra 500m and is a genuine contender. #5 Home Ground $21  Impressed with a strong win in the Geelong Classic over 2200m and is another who will relish the step up to 2500m. Not the roughest and must include at a price.    Leg 3 R8 - Kennedy Mile #1 Hartnell $7 A multiple Group 1 winner who is in career best form. Drawn perfectly in barrier nine, Hugh Bowman will follow the pace across and sit mid-field with cover. Clear top pick! #2 Le Romain #13  Impressed with a strong effort in The Everest, beating home some of the world's highest-rated sprinters. Two starts ago he ran second to Winx over 1600m. Saves his best for the wet tracks, but is effective on top of the ground.  #4 Land of Plenty $4.80 Was an impressive winner last start when defeating Hartnell in the Toorak Handicap. Meets Hartnell 2.5kg worse at the weights, which will even the gap. Must include.    Leg 4 R9 - Multiplier Stakes #5 Jorda $26  Gets back to the scene of her last win and is well suited by the Flemington straight. The inside draw is a concern, however it's likely they'll come down the middle of the track which should allow her every chance.  #6 Resin $6  The stablemate to Jorda, who is in career best form and taking all before her. She'll be ridden in the top half of the field and should get every chance to continue her winning ways.  #14 Za Zi Ba $67 This is a huge rise in class, but the Widdup stable wouldn't be sending her down to Melbourne if she wasn't flying. She defeated She Knows three starts back, who has opened $12. There was a huge difference in weights that day, however the price gap is too significant. She's the blow out we want to bring us home! 

SandGroper is a punter who records his bets at theGreatTipOff.com. Over the past 12 months he has averaged about ten horse racing bets per day, yielding over $1,000 profit per month from $100 win bets. Remaining profitable for 365 days over a sustained period isn't easy. Sandgroper has agreed to share his best insights every Friday for the weekend's racing with his remaining selections posted in his racing tip package on the racing tip market. Check-out his page here and if there are no tips available at the time click his FOLLOW button and follow the prompts to get alerted when he bets next.    Friday Tips Bookbuild - Moonee Valley R6 No.4 The son of Choisir put in a couple of fair efforts in his last campaign. He was then gelded and followed with a comfortable Cranbourne trial win on September 18. He returned to racing at Ararat with an emphatic win in impressive fashion having too much pace for his opposition early to find the lead comfortably from barrier 10 and remained in control to the home turn. Bookbuild quickened well under jockey Daniel Moor and maintained his speed to score by 2 ¾ lengths. Ran a solid third in open company at his latest. He’ll only improve so stick with him.   Saturday Tips Octabello - Flemington R1 No.11- he only beat two runners home last start but the run was a complete and utter forgive job. The Price colt was slow out from barrier four and settled in the last couple in a race where the front three travelled in those positions throughout the race. Dunn found himself behind a wall of runners rounding the home bend and prayed for luck in between horses. The breaks never came for Octabello and he went to the line under a firm hold. He would have given the placegetters a scare if a gap opened up for him over the final furlong.    Houtzen - Flemington R5 No.15- get on for the ride of your life, tighten your girth and hold the reins as Jeff Lloyd gives you a run from pillar to post in under 1min 9 sec. Lloyd was impressed with the way she hit the line when she won the Group Three Scarborough Stakes (1200m) at Moonee Valley and should be able to do it again. Trainer Edmonds was privately furious at her McEwen Stakes run when he queried how Williams handled the horse from barrier 1 to finish-up three wide. She started well in the Everest but raced too keenly which took its toll in the latter stages of the race. This Saturday Lloyd needs to jump we11 from barrier 5 and bore straight to the front to give her the best chance of winning and resist seeking cover as she will start reefing and pulling.   Cruachan - Ascot R5 No.5- this Godolphin castoff was a winner of two races when trained in New South Wales and looks set for a profitable career in the west after a strong performance on Saturday. Already a winner at Pinjarra since landing in the care of astute trainer Simon Miller late last season, Cruachan was unlucky not to add to his record when steaming home at his first start in three months to finish a close second after being held-up for much of the straight. Everything points to a mile being within scope for Cruachan.   Cosmic Storm - Ascot R6 No.2- looks on track to add to her already imposing career record after a strong first-up effort. Settling back near last against some of the best sprinter-milers in the west, Cosmic Storm struggled to secure clear running for the majority of the straight with the field sticking hard against the inside, eventually seeing daylight late to drive through the ruck and finish a close fourth. She won three of the four feature races for mares over the summer carnival last season although it won't surprise if owner Bob Peters has set his sights even higher with Cosmic Storm this time in work. Either way, she is a mare that can be followed with confidence.   Express mail  - the run of Qewy  to win  the Bendigo Cup was a tremendous run from a fresh horse and should be cherry ripe for a start in the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday.