2/11/19 Flemington tips and best bets: Victoria Derby Preview

Whilst some owners choose to dodge the VRC Derby due to the perceived toll it takes on an expensive young three-year-old horse, most are addicted to winning it at all costs.

This year's edition like all others, poses the fascinating question of each runner's ability to run the brutal 2500m journey right out.

Lungs will burn and the winner will be the horse who is a superior staying athlete.    

 Flemington Track Traits

The Flemington surface is currently rated a Good 4, with the rail in the true position for the entire circuit.

There are light showers predicted to fall in Melbourne on both Friday and Saturday, however the surface should cope due to Flemington's excellent drainage.

With the rail positioned true, there may be a slight preference for horses who travel up the inside and on-speed. 

As always, a close watch is advised early to determine any fast lanes or bias.  

 Racing Market Movers

Soul Patch is the early market mover and after opening at $6.50, he's been very well supported all the way into $4.40.

The other well fancied runner is Thought Of That, who has plenty of admirers and is $4.20 to $3.60.

Race favourite Shadow Hero has drifted early out to $3.40 from 3.00 openers.

 Key Runners

#1 Shadow Hero $3.00 > $3.40

Has been dominant at his past two, where he showed well above average staying ability on both occasions.

He has Castelvecchio form, where he beat the Cox Plate runner-up with ease in the Spring Champion Stakes last start.

The horse is clearly very well found in the market and just needs to hold the current good form to be fighting out the finish. Top hope. 

#2  Soul Patch $6.50 > $4.40

Is on a steep upward trajectory after finishing midfield in the Caulfield Guineas, before braining them over 2040m in the traditional lead up race, the Moonee Valley Vase.

Looks a genuine stayer with a high value turn of foot. I love the timing of his racing program, where he's emerged as a contender here late. 

Well exposed now in betting ($4.40) following the last start win, yet must be considered a leading contender in this. Yes.  

#3 Thought Of That $3.60

Is the subject of controversy after the "greenhorn" owner sacked regular rider Linda Meech in favour of Mark Zahra.

He is the likely leader and if left alone out in front, will give a great kick as they run for home.  

Expect plenty to be cheering this horse to lose given the negative publicity, however you can't deny his claims following back-to-back wins. Leading chance.

#4 Warning $9.00  

Was the victim of a slowly run race in the Caulfield Classic last start, where he got well back in the field and had no chance to run down the leader Thought Of That.

Given more tempo here and ridden closer, I suspect that he can bounce back and win.

He appears a horse that the mug punters will drop off due to his last start losing margin of 3.75 lengths. 

The current $9 price looks an absolute spoil. Goes on top.

#8 Long Jack $18

Kiwi raider who has shown enough in all Australian starts to suggest he is up to this. 

The Baker/Forsman stable are the best in the business when it comes to preparing young stayers and they will have this colt ready to fire.

Although the last start win was against "B graders" in the Geelong Classic, he can take improvement from that and be much better here.

Very wary and he is a must include in wider exotic bet types. 

#10 Southern Moon $14

Led and was run down right on the line in the Geelong Classic to finish 2 of 16. Again that looks the weaker form-line and I suspect that he would need to improve significantly to feature here. 

The stable are flying and the rider Billy Egan is winning as he likes. Both of these factors will help, and the great unknown of 2500m could suit. 

Can surprise a few at odds. 

#11 Relucent $19

The Waller factor is always hard to ignore and whilst the form leading into this race ooks second rate, he is still hard to ignore.

As is the case for all runners here, the 2500m is a complete mystery and anything could happen over the brutal trip.

A significant push in betting late would create plenty of interest. Watch markets.

Of The Others

#5 Huntly Castle comes via the stronger form-lines of the Caulfield Classic and Super Impose. Although he was beaten in each, he wasn't too far off the winners.

He has to be considered a good hope to be one of the stronger ones close to home and we will receive cricket score odds to find out. Could surprise. 

We identify the track experts for Saturday's Victoria Derby by listing tipsters posting Flemington tips in order of their profitability.