Caulfield Guineas

This year's editions of the Caulfield Guineas and Thousand Guineas are packed full of great quality, and both shape as highly competitive affairs when compared to recent runnings. In both races the fields hold plenty of intrigue for punters, and there is sure to be a number of strong betting moves between now and start time. I expect the gun filly who was ultra dominant in the Thousand Guineas Prelude to continue her winning way in the girls feature. Whilst in the boys' Guineas event, the Sydney form looks far too strong this year. We are set to witness the crowning of a champion colt who can go right on with it.   Track Conditions The Caulfield track is currently rated a Good 4, with the rail in the True position for the entire circuit. With rain predicted over the next 48 hours in Melbourne, we could receive a track downgrade come race day. In recent meetings at Caulfield, plenty of winning horses have come from sitting three wide in the moving line. Expect that pattern to continue on Saturday.    Caulfield Race 7 - Thousand Guineas 1600m (G1) The Map Expect genuine speed here, with Vangelic (10) and Night Raid (12) the most likely to carve across from their wide draws to take it up. The moving line with cover could be the ideal pattern of the day, and that is the running position Instant Celebrity (9) will be aiming for. I am against those drawn towards the inside barriers (1-4), including favourite Hungry Heart (3) who faces an ugly speed map and could struggle to extricate off the fence Expect mid to wide draws to hold an advantage in this clash.   The Favourite Hungry Heart ($3.40) has a huge SP profile after being crunched into $1.90 last start, and was clearly expected to win against the A graders in Sydney. There is no doubt she is loaded with ability, however on this occasion she has a number of significant challenges to overcome. She will need to travel well from Sydney and is having her first look at Caulfield, which is much tighter and a completely different set up when compared to her recent Randwick hit-outs. From an inside draw in gate 3, there is a high risk she gets buried back along the inside and struggles for clear running. I am very wary and expect her to be storming home late, although I'd prefer to be with others at the price and believe she is far too short here.    Best Racing Tips Instant Celebrity ($3.40)  maps beautifully from a mid draw and with a touch of luck, can find an ideal position three-wide with cover before unleashing hell on them as she pleases. She was excellent last start when winning the prelude here with plenty of arrogance, and I expect her to improve off that run. Rock My Wand ($17) comes up big odds and is a great value play for punters. She was excellent last start here when she charged from a midfield position to only just miss. If the rain did come forcing a track downgrade, expect her to start much shorter. The value runner. If the track is playing leaderish, Vangelic ($11) is a must include as she will ride the speed and has been racing in strong Sydney company. Given any cheap mid-race sectional, expect her to give a good kick. Hungry Heart ($3.40) is a must include in broader plays, although at the price represents poor value for win bettors. She is likely to be storming home to fill the first four, when it is all over.   1st  Instant Celebrity  2nd  Rock My Wand 3rd  Vangelic 4th  Hungry Heart   Caulfield Race 8 - Caulfield Guineas 1600m (Group 1) The Map Crosshaven (11) has no choice but to carve across from the outside gate, as I doubt they will risk being caught wide with no cover. There is speed hunting up from the inside and they could fly along early over the first 200m, as they sort out running positions. Expect Tagaloa (3) and Lunar Fox (4) to use their good draws and they should both race close to speed. Others who can be up there challenging for the premier spots are Poland (9) and Grandslam (6), who are likely to take hold and race just in behind. Again, those who race well back on the fence often find it difficult to extricate at Caulfield.   The Favourite  Ole Kirk ($3.40) brings what appears to be superior form out of the Golden Rose where he stormed late to get up on the line. He should relish getting out to 1600m and may even be more dynamic than last start, when he still had time to cruise up over the Rosehill 1400m. Maps to be in a gun running position three-wide with cover and is likely to collar them all late. Clear on top pick.    Best Racing Tips I'm happy to be with Ole Kirk ($3.20) and with even luck, expect him to peel from the moving line as he likes before storming home over the top. Mo'unga ($14) has shown enormous ability and is still untapped to a degree. Expect him to be another who travels in the ideal three-wide with cover lane and will certainly have his chance to sprint hard. King's Legacy ($6.50)  finally gets out to his more suitable trip of 1600m here and has shown enough in the lead up runs to suggest he is now ready. Throw in Cambourne ($14) who showed enough in the Prelude and is lightly raced (3:2-0-0) with plenty of upside.   1st  Ole Kirk  2nd  Mo'unga 3rd  Kings Legacy 4th  Cambourne

Distance 1600m Grade Group 1 Track Rating Good 4  Prizemoney $2,000,000 Class 3YO Set Weights  2018 winner The Autumn Sun ($1.70) The Caulfield Guineas always provides a robust debate around which city's form will prevail. Typically the Sydney lead up races are much stronger, however this year the market suggests Melbourne's Guineas Prelude holds more weight.  I am with one out of the Prelude who should race close to speed and be in the ideal striking position as they turn for home.      Caulfield Track Traits The Caulfield surface is currently rated a Good 4, with the rail in the true position the entire circuit and fine conditions predicted for Saturday. With this set-up, punters should expect the track to play fair with both on and off speed profiles to have their chance.  As always, a close watch is advised early to determine any fast lanes or bias.     Racing Market Movers Alligator Blood is the early mover in betting, firming from an opening quote of $6.00 to now trade at $4.80. Race favourite Dalasan has also seen some support, into $3.20 from $3.40. At longer odds, Roccabasserana has come into $12 from $18 openers.    Key Runners #2 Dalasan $3.40 > $3.20 He kept on coming strongly last start in the Guineas Prelude to run 2 of 15, and the extra distance up to 1600m here looks ideal. If the pace goes on up front, he is the one that will be grabbing them all late. However, the outside draw in gate 18 could pose significant traffic problems. With any luck weaving through, he will go very close. Leading chance.     #3 Alligator Blood $6.00 > $4.80 Reports from the mounting yard last start declared that he paraded as one of the fittest horses all day, and that proved spot on when he prevailed in a tough on-speed win in the Prelude. The big tick is that he has the tactical speed to be close in the run, unlike the favourite. This should hold a significant advantage here around the tight Caulfield circuit.  Goes on top and could start shorter if he parades well again.     #4 Kubrick $8.50 The Sydney three-year-old form is normally the strongest and this colt has the best of it, following a 5 of 8 finish in a hot edition of the Golden Rose. He appears to be crying out for 1600m and did run a close second at Group 1 one level last prep over the same journey. Looks to have the class edge on most and will be jumping out of the ground late. Yes.    #5 Super Seth $12  Finished midfield in the Prelude and did have genuine excuses after being checked and forced to race well back. He has drawn ideally in gate 5 to get the soft run and suck up in behind the entire trip. Last start was inconclusive and he could be the big improver here, given more luck in running. Include in wider bets.   #6 The Holy One $20 Won the Stutt Stakes last start at Moonee Valley over this distance, in what appears to be one of the weaker form-lines. They have found "the cowboy" (Brett Prebble) to ride which is a massive tick, however I doubt he has the class to be going with most of these. No.    #7 Subedar $15 Is the sole Godolphin hope and did place second last start in the Gloaming, behind the very smart Shadow Hero.  Although well beaten 3.5 lengths by a potential superstar last start, that could easily be good enough form for this. Looks good value at the current $15. Include in everything.   #10 Roccabasserana $18 > $12 Led in the Prelude, before puncturing close to home. With the extra distance and pressure here, I doubt he can see out the trip. Will lead and capitulate inside the final 200m. No.   #15 Soul Patch $17 Won in lowly benchmark 64 grade last start at Flemington and no doubt has some ability, however this looks too hard and far too soon.  Expect a significant market drift in betting from the current $17. No.      #16 Express Pass $19 Another of the lightly raced brigade, whose ownership group have only entered here for the mounting yard access on a big day. No.   Of The Others #18 Groundswell is currently first emergency, however if he gained a run he can be a player. He was only 1.75 lengths off the winner in the Prelude and they have engaged the services of Kerrin McEvoy. Can win.     Best Racing Tips 1st  Alligator Blood 2nd  Kubrick   3rd  Subedar 4th  Super Seth 

Distance 1,600m Grade Group 1 Track  Caulfield Prizemoney $2,000,000 2018 winner The Autumn Sun ($1.70)   The Caulfield Guineas is highly regarded as a stallion making race and is the major three-year-old mile event of the Spring Carnival.   The most notable winners of the Caulfield Guineas include Starspangledbanner (2009), Whobegotyou (2008), Weekend Hussler (2007) and Lonhro (2001).  The early favourite for the 2109 Guineas is the Leon Macdonald and Andrew Gluyas trained Dalasan. The winner of his first two runs this prep, he was then beaten by Aligator Blood in the Guineas Prelude, prompting a jockey switch from Raquel Clark to Hugh Bowman.  The son of Dalakhani has plenty of ability, but now has the huge task of overcoming the awful draw in barrier 18. Second-favourite Alligator Blood is another who has drawn poorly and will have to overcome barrier 13 if he's to keep his impressive unbeaten record alive,    Caulfield Guineas Race Tip: Express Pass $17.00 (value bet) Was severely checked in running last start, which ensured he'd take no part in the finish. His run prior to that in the Group Two Danehill was strong and suggested he had plenty of upside.  He's drawn perfectly in barrier eight, which will ensure he can find cover mid-field. With even luck in the run, he'll be produced on the home turn and can explode over the top late.    Nominations for the 2019 Caulfield Guineas are below:  Horse Name Weight Barrier Trainer Jockey Odds DALASAN 56.5kg 18 Leon Macdonald & Andrew Gluyas Hugh Bowman $3.00 ALLIGATOR BLOOD 56.5kg 13 David Vandyke Ryan Maloney $6.00 KUBRICK 56.5kg 17 Chris Waller James McDonald $6.50 SUPER SETH 56.5kg 5 Anthony Freedman Mark Zahra $11 EXPRESS PASS 56.5kg 8 Nick Ryan Ben Melham $11 SUBEDAR 56.5kg 7 James Cummings Brad Rawiller $13 SOUL PATCH 56.5kg 14 Ken Keys Dwayne Dunn $15 THE HOLY ONE (NZ) 56.5kg 4 Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young Brett Prebble $18 GROUNDSWELL 56.5kg 12 Anthony Freedman Kerrin McEvoy $21 VEGAS KNIGHT 56.5kg 10 Colin Little Craig Williams $26 SKIDDAW 56.5kg 6 Danny O'Brien Damien Oliver $31 CONQUEROR 56.5kg 2 David & B Hayes & T Dabernig Damian Lane $31 YOURDEEL (NZ) 56.5kg 9 David & B Hayes & T Dabernig Michael Walker $41 ERIC THE EEL 56.5kg 16 Stuart Kendrick Kerrin McEvoy $41 ROCCABASCERANA 56.5kg 1 David Jolly Ms Linda Meech $51 STAND TO ATTENTION 56.5kg 3 Leon & Troy Corstens James Winks $51 SERENGETI 56.5kg 11 Pat Carey   $101 CREATOR 56.5kg 19 Peter & Paul Snowden   $126 EXETER 56.5kg 15 David & B Hayes & T Dabernig Luke Nolen $126