12/10/19 Caulfield Guineas tips and best bets 2019

The Caulfield Guineas always provides a robust debate around which city's form will prevail.

Typically the Sydney lead up races are much stronger, however this year the market suggests Melbourne's Guineas Prelude holds more weight. 

I am with one out of the Prelude who should race close to speed and be in the ideal striking position as they turn for home.  

 Caulfield Track Traits

The Caulfield surface is currently rated a Good 4, with the rail in the true position the entire circuit and fine conditions predicted for Saturday.

With this set-up, punters should expect the track to play fair with both on and off speed profiles to have their chance. 

As always, a close watch is advised early to determine any fast lanes or bias.

 Racing Market Movers

Alligator Blood is the early mover in betting, firming from an opening quote of $6.00 to now trade at $4.80.

Race favourite Dalasan has also seen some support, into $3.20 from $3.40.

At longer odds, Roccabasserana has come into $12 from $18 openers.

 Key Runners

#2 Dalasan $3.40 > $3.20

He kept on coming strongly last start in the Guineas Prelude to run 2 of 15, and the extra distance up to 1600m here looks ideal.

If the pace goes on up front, he is the one that will be grabbing them all late. However, the outside draw in gate 18 could pose significant traffic problems.

With any luck weaving through, he will go very close. Leading chance.  

#3 Alligator Blood $6.00 > $4.80

Reports from the mounting yard last start declared that he paraded as one of the fittest horses all day, and that proved spot on when he prevailed in a tough on-speed win in the Prelude.

The big tick is that he has the tactical speed to be close in the run, unlike the favourite. This should hold a significant advantage here around the tight Caulfield circuit. 

Goes on top and could start shorter if he parades well again.  

#4 Kubrick $8.50

The Sydney three-year-old form is normally the strongest and this colt has the best of it, following a 5 of 8 finish in a hot edition of the Golden Rose.

He appears to be crying out for 1600m and did run a close second at Group 1 one level last prep over the same journey.

Looks to have the class edge on most and will be jumping out of the ground late. Yes. 

#5 Super Seth $12 

Finished midfield in the Prelude and did have genuine excuses after being checked and forced to race well back.

He has drawn ideally in gate 5 to get the soft run and suck up in behind the entire trip.

Last start was inconclusive and he could be the big improver here, given more luck in running. Include in wider bets.

#6 The Holy One $20

Won the Stutt Stakes last start at Moonee Valley over this distance, in what appears to be one of the weaker form-lines.

They have found "the cowboy" (Brett Prebble) to ride which is a massive tick, however I doubt he has the class to be going with most of these. No. 

#7 Subedar $15

Is the sole Godolphin hope and did place second last start in the Gloaming, behind the very smart Shadow Hero. 

Although well beaten 3.5 lengths by a potential superstar last start, that could easily be good enough form for this.

Looks good value at the current $15. Include in everything.

#10 Roccabasserana $18 > $12

Led in the Prelude, before puncturing close to home. With the extra distance and pressure here, I doubt he can see out the trip.

Will lead and capitulate inside the final 200m. No.

#15 Soul Patch $17

Won in lowly benchmark 64 grade last start at Flemington and no doubt has some ability, however this looks too hard and far too soon. 

Expect a significant market drift in betting from the current $17. No.   

#16 Express Pass $19

Another of the lightly raced brigade, whose ownership group have only entered here for the mounting yard access on a big day. No.

Of The Others

#18 Groundswell is currently first emergency, however if he gained a run he can be a player.

He was only 1.75 lengths off the winner in the Prelude and they have engaged the services of Kerrin McEvoy. Can win.