30/10/21 Flemington Tips for Victoria Derby & Kennedy Cantala
-
- Author: James BeesonOct 28, 2021 01:00 PM
- Photo: Getty
Brutal 3YO Test
Derby Day at Flemington is considered a day for racing purists, where the brutal 2500m feature contest always presents a fascinating spectacle. Which 3YO's will stay the trip!
In the time honoured classic, I'm with one who has impressed in recent starts and appears to have above average staying ability coupled with a lethal turn of foot.
Whilst later on the card in the Cantala over 1600m, a Danny O'Brien runner has a significant class edge and can account for this field with his quality.
Track Conditions
The Flemington track is currently rated a Good 4, with the rail situated in the True position for the entire circuit.
Showers are predicted for the remainder of the week in Melbourne, however Saturday appears fine.
The wide open spaces of Flemington typically ensure all runners have their chance.
As always refer to the early races for a good guide on track bias.
Flemington Race 6 - Victoria Derby 2500m (G1 3YO)
The Map
Zoumon (13) looks the natural leader here and should jump straight to the front and run along at a genuine tempo.
Commander Harry (15), Tutukaka (12) and El Roko (16) are all likely to roll across in an attempt to race close to speed.
Expect both fancied runners, Gunstock (19) and Forgot You (8), to race back in the field and come with one late rush.
The Favourite
Forgot You ($4.20) clings to favouritism following his last start win the Moonee Valley Vase, where he ground home late to get up.
He comes via the Caulfield Guineas (Anamoe) formline two starts back, which looks rock solid and indicates he has a touch of class.
There is always a risk they don't run the 2500m Derby trip right out, however last start over the 2040m he did appear to have good staying ability.
Best Racing Tips
I'm a with Gunstock in this, who should be well suited with the break between runs and has shown enough to suggest he will run this trip.
He looks to have a genuine turn of foot and given the right run, should be able to sprint better then most.
Forgot You was good at Moonee Valley last week and arrives on the quick back up here, which possibly suits him. However, the two lead up runs going into that outing were only over the mile.
He may be slightly underdone, having only been over 1600m once.
Commander Harry nearly pinched it last week in the Moonee Valley Vase, with an aggressive mid-race move by Linda Meech. Although he was only just collared late, I believe the tough last start run will have him cherry ripe for this.
He looks big odds at $27 and could surprise the favourites.
The Tony Pike trained Tutukaka has a deep Kiwi connection with J Mac booked to ride. I suspect the horse is flying and McDonald would be desperate to win for his good friend Pike.
The profile coming in is excellent, with a win over 2200m last start in the Geelong Classic suggesting he is a more genuine stayer than most of these. Watch betting late.
1st Gunstock
2nd Forgot You
3rd Commander Harry
4th Tutukaka
Flemington Race 8 - Kennedy Cantala 1600m (G1 Qty)
The Map
Expect a genuine speed here early, with both Riodini (10) and Buffalo River (4) looking to take control.
Mr Brightside (6), Quantum Mechanic (9) and Just Folk (2) should all receive the nice tag just in behind.
Icebath (6) typically gets well back and will be charging late.
The Favourite
Mr Brightside ($4.50) has been ultra impressive winning his past 6 starts, and is highly likely to be a star in the making.
He won the Seymour Cup with absolute ease last start, when giving nothing else a chance and very strong through the line.
This is harder, however expect him to be right up to the Group 1 grade.
Best Racing Tips
I'm with Superstorm who comes via the stronger formlines of big Group 1's in the Toorak Handicap and the Underwood Stakes.
He was not far off the winner in both races and looks the class runner in this field. Trust Damien Oliver to get the job done, and we are getting a price ($12)!
Mr Brightside has raced through the grades and clearly has plenty of ability (has won his past 6 starts). He gets no weight (52kg) and has the tactical speed to race handy or take the sit.
This is a big step up in grade from the last start Seymour Cup win, however he does look right up to it.
Just Folk is on the quick back-up from last week after winning the Crystal Mile at Moonee Valley. He continues to be underestimated by the market and will again go around big odds ($34).
The current price represents excellent value and he should go very close late.
King Magnus ran well at Caulfield last start when strong late over the 1400m.
Up to 1600m for this is now perfect, and you can expect the extra ground and big track to give him every chance to run them down.
Include in broader bet types.
1st Superstorm
2nd Mr Brightside
3rd Just Folk
4th King Magnus
