The Everest Tips: Race Preview 2018

This year's editon of the Everest is a wide open betting affair, where a genuine and reasonable case can be made for all 12 runners.

I've taken the view that the tempo throughout will be red hot and the run-on profiles should hold a slight advantage over those riding the speed up front.

A rain effected surface is also likely to play a big hand, especially late in the day as the inside chops out. This will also favour off-speed horses as riders look to course wider and sligshot to the middle/outer lanes.

There are certainly plenty of angles to take in this one, however it is a swooper that looks most likely to be first past the post in the world's richest race.

 Race Randwick Track Traits

Randwick is currently rated a Heavy 8, with the rail in the true position the entire circuit and rain predicted on Saturday.

With a rain effected surface present and this particular race run later in the day, horses scouting to the middle to outside lanes will likely hold the advantage.

These conditions can favour outside barriers, as those drawn close will find it harder to find the better going.

A close watch is advised to determine the fast lanes evident in early races on the card.

Wet track stars should of course be elevated with any further rain on the day.  

 Racing Market Movers

 All runners remain steady, with punters likely to be holding off from any major investment until track conditions become clearer.

 Key Runners

#1 Redzel $7

Defending champ who will have to improve sharply, following a disappointing outing here last start in the Premiere Stakes when he finished well off them in a race coined "The Mini Everest".

His campaign this year has been marred by setbacks and to be winning these big races, stables need everything to go right all throughout the preparation.

Still have to concede the wet will suit and from gate 1, Kerrin will take up a stalking position tucked just in behind Vega Magic.

Expect him to take the sit until mid-way down the straight, when there should be enough room to angle off or dart up the inside, albeit in what is likely to be inferior ground.

Just feel he may be on the way down following the heroics of last year and it is time for a new star to shine on this occasion. No. 

#2 Santa Ana Lane $8

Has taken all before him at his past few, winning the Group 1 Stradbroke three starts back and then coming from well off the pace last start to win the Premiere Stakes, the key lead up here.

He loves it wet (11:3-1-4) and will almost certainly enjoy those conditions on Saturday at Randwick, with further rain predicted in the lead up and possibly on the day.

With a rain effected surface, the 1200m is likely to feel longer for most of these and it may take one like him who is proven over further ground with strong 1300m form to win this.

The current $8.00 is perfectly acceptable and he must be included in everything. 

#4 Trapeze Artist $7

Has been tracking along well without shooting the lights out, however the key here is his lethal third up record (3:2-0-1).

He should come on massively from the second-up 4 of 8 in the Premiere, where historically he is below his best.

There is no doubting his quality, just a slight concern he is far less dynamic than last preparation when he brained them at Group 1 level in both the All Aged Stakes and TJ Smith.

Happy to bet around this time. No.

#5 Vega Magic $7

Will lead from gate 7 and carve out some very brisk sectionals out in front, where if left alone through the mid stages, will be extremely hard to run down.

He should have won this race last year after a putrid ride from Craig Williams (four wide and no cover).

Damien Oliver takes over this year and surely won't be making any mistake this time around for the bereaved owners. 

Very well found in the market now at $7, however deservedly so after ticking all the boxes. Top chance.

#6 Brave Smash $13

Has had the perfect prep for this and appears to be flying under the radar to some degree, following excellent lead-up runs where he has placed in all three races back this prep. 

The predicted hot tempo sets up perfectly for him, as he typically loves to run home over the top after sitting off them.

The big plus here is from gate 4, the rider can be more positive and take a position midfield which will be closer than usual and could make all the difference.

The current $13 looks value and he will be the one angling to the outside and running right over the top of them all late. Goes on top. 

#8 US Navy Flag $9

Coolmore hope with form-lines that come from complete left field and which are very difficult to line-up.

He did win the Group 1 July Cup at Newmarket to round out last prep and that performance points to an excellent chance in this. 

Simply have to trust that the Irish masters know what horse to send and he has been the subject of some well documented big bets in early markets.

All reports are that he has worked well since arriving at the Canterbury facility. 

You can be sure that Coolmore would be taking their slot holder investment very seriously and they would've left no stone unturned when mapping out a plan.

Happy to put the locals ahead of him but terrified he could have plenty on all of them.

Risk on this occasion and in danger of having egg everywhere.

#9 In Her Time $11

Ran a quicker time than 2017 Everest winner Redzel, when forced into the consolation race after being unlucky not to secure a slot in last year's edition.

The owners struck an early deal with Tabcorp this year and have had the advantage of planning the campaign from a long way out.

The lead-up run in the Premiere was good, where he finished right alongside leading fancies Santa Ana Lane and Shoals.

That will have her topped off nicely for the grand final, although the Opera House sails did her no favours when revealing she had drawn gate 8.

From there she is likely to be forced back further in the field than connections would have liked, and with that comes the increased likelihood of traffic issues.

Still, that may be the place to be at this stage of the day with the rail in the true and if the pattern is middle to outside lanes, it could suit.

Will need the breaks to come and happy to risk. 

#10 Shoals $7.50

Sets up well and will swim through any wet conditions with a faultless record on rain effected tracks (3:3-0-0).

Loved the way she ran on hard down the outside in the key lead-up race here last start, the Premiere Stakes, when finishing a close-up second.

Connections would be harbouring slight concerns about the inside draw (gate 2), as her most favoured pattern is to be get back in a moving line before finding clean air towards the outside and running home over the top. She'll be likely forced to pick her way through traffic here.

She is a multiple Group 1 winner who is right up to the task, even if it means going up the rail. Top hope.

Of The Others

#11 Viddora has to be a huge chance in this if they go warp speed in front and is another of the run-on profiles who should get the race run to suit.

Bookies could let her get out beyond $20+ with the weight of money for other high-profile runners, and she is well worth a ticket at big odds. 

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