Classic Caulfield hosts Group 1 Melbourne racing this week, with the running of the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes over 1400m.
A number of early speedsters are engaged, and this could develop into a warp-speed tempo with a number expected to press forward.
The exciting NZ horse I Wish I Win adds plenty of spice to this event following an ultra-impressive win at his Australian debut, here over the Caulfield 1400m last start.
I'm trusting the Sydney Winx Stakes form, and have locked onto one at a big price!
The Caulfield track is currently rated a Soft 5 with the rail out 6m for the entire circuit.
Showers are predicted for the remainder of the week in Melbourne and on race day.
The Caulfield surface can throw up significantly advantaged racing patterns, and if the rain continues, on-speed may hold some advantage.
As always refer to the early races for a good guide on track bias.
The Map
The Favourite
I Wish I Win ($3.90) appears to be an NZ "wonder horse" and could not have been more impressive at his Australian debut when simply brained a good field here first up over the same 1400m distance.
He looks like something very special and whilst this is his toughest test to date up to genuine Melbourne Group 1 Level, expect he has the talent to overcome.
He was heavily backed last start and won accordingly, and if the money arrives late again here it would add plenty of confidence.
Analysis and Tips
I'm with Hilal at a big price ($20) and am trusting the Winx Stakes (Anamoe) form to be superior. He had a great pipe opener last start when sent forward in the hot Group 1 field and did enough to suggest that was the perfect set-up run. Team Hawkes is desperate to impress the highly influential Emirates Park who expects results in these big Group 1 races. He looks the value to my eye.
I Wish I Win is stacked with ability and arrives following the big first-up run/win. This is much harder and a slight knock he hasn't seen an ultra high-quality field like this before. I'm very wary and it certainly would not surprise me to see him dominant again. Has no weight (54kg)!
Just Folk loves the rain-affected (12:5-3-0) conditions and should get that here with plenty of showers predicted. He is very genuine and seems to be always underestimated by the market. If the breaks come he can be fighting out the finish at big odds.
Tuvalu has a massive engine and good tactical speed. They could look for the lead here if they choose or take the sit outside the leader which adds plenty of options. If they dropped anchor mid-race he should be in an ideal striking position to kick off the front.
1st Hilal
2nd I Wish I Win
3rd Just Folk
4th Tuvalu