This week, we focus on two warm favourites whose prices appear severely over-bet and represent extremely poor value for punters.
At Flemington, we are against a Grahame Begg runner stepping up to Stakes level for the first time and with no early speed, he looks tactically unsuited.
At Doomben, we are happy to risk a Gai and Bott import making his Australian debut.
He faces the challenge of a tight-turning Doomben circuit and must contend with a distance that is short of his best form.
Avoid both runners at their current short prices in betting.
Jimmy Beeson continues to nail his lays at a good rate.
Looking for more of his tips? His Early Market Movers drop Friday.
I always enjoy opposing runners who are forced to rise to Stakes grade for the first time, and that is exactly the case here with this Grahame Begg-trained hope.
While the stable is flying, their horses are often over-bet due to recent success, and bookmakers are sure to keep this price artificially short throughout betting given the expected flow of money.
He does not possess much early tactical speed, and that is a concern. Recent Flemington straight racing has favoured runners who can position forward of midfield, and it looks unlikely he will be able to secure that type of run.
At the poison price, and likely to be giving a start to the main chances, I am very happy to oppose him here.
Avoid.
I am more than happy to pot the Gai and Bott import, who faces several challenges on Australian debut.
He will need to be extremely adaptable to handle the tight-turning Doomben circuit, which is rarely a forgiving task for imports and certainly not something reflected in his short price.
These types of horses also tend to be over-bet due to the hype generated by a prominent stable and the marketing push to ownership groups.
I believe that hype has played a significant role in his current price.
Although he has been prepared with several trials, his best form has been over longer distances around 2400 metres, and the 2000-metre trip here looks short of his ideal range.
I expect a market drift close to start time as professional betting teams oppose him, and $3 or better should be widely available at the jump.
Lay.
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