This week, we focus on two warm favourites who present excellent risks and give punters a strong opportunity to oppose them.
At Caulfield, a popular runner is forced to jump up in class once again and may have found his ceiling, especially with a potentially unfavourable inside draw in barrier one.
Meanwhile in the feature Group 1 at Morphettville, Giga Kick makes his return and appears severely over-bet due to his profile, despite facing a wide draw and a number of rock-hard fit rivals.
Avoid both runners at their current short prices in betting.
Jimmy Beeson continues to nail his lays at a good rate.
Looking for more of his tips? His Early Market Movers drop Friday.
I am happy to pot the favourite here, who steps up sharply in grade to Benchmark 100 level and may not be suited by the inside draw in barrier one.
While he has been impressive, winning his past two starts, he now faces a much stronger field with depth across the board.
He will need to produce another peak performance to win this.
Although drawn inside, there looks to be enough speed drawn wider to either cross him early or apply pressure throughout.
If he is forced to take a sit, it will be against his usual racing pattern, which is a risk.
Even if he holds the front, the jockey is likely to burn fuel early and that could prove costly in the final 200 metres.
He looks like a significant risk at the current quote.
Avoid.
The stable will need to have him very forward in condition to be winning this first-up, especially in what could be a fast-run race against several race-fit opponents.
He is typically over-bet due to his profile and bookmakers will likely keep him artificially short through the day to manage expected multis and recreational money.
There is every chance that professional punters will oppose him late on the exchange and I expect sharp money to come for other runners.
That said, corporate bookmakers are unlikely to budge from the short price.
From gate 12, he will need luck early to find a spot and there is a real possibility that he could be trapped wide at some stage in the run.
This is not a straightforward task.
Lay.
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