This week, we focus on two popular favourites at Caulfield who appear severely over-bet and are likely to drift in the market as we get closer to race time.
Midway through the card, a last-start Mornington winner steps up into a stronger Saturday metro race.
While drawn low, that may work against him given his racing pattern.
Later in the day, a fan favourite mare returns carrying a hefty 61kg and based on recent form and conditions, this could be the final run of her career.
Jimmy Beeson continues to nail his lays at a good rate.
Looking for more of his tips? His Early Market Movers drop Friday.
His win at Mornington last start was sound, but this is clearly a tougher assignment back at Caulfield in a stronger Saturday grade event.
The draw in barrier 4 may not be the advantage it appears on paper.
Given his natural pattern, he may end up buried back on the fence, which can be a poor position around this track if the race develops at a steady tempo and the moving line forms too late.
Notably he also laid in under pressure last start, which is a concern.
That can often signal discomfort or a brewing physical issue and is rarely a positive sign when stepping up in class.
He looks well found at the current quote and I do not expect him to start any shorter.
A market drift to $3 or better is highly likely.
Avoid.
Pride Of Jenni winning the QE Stakes at Randwick
She was plain at best last start, and I am happy to draw a line through her going forward.
Based on her current form and what she is being asked to carry, retirement may not be far off.
She has been asked to lump 61kg and while she has class, that kind of weight can expose any weakness in condition or motivation.
There is even speculation of a possible underlying issue, though the stable continues to run her on the insistence of a very hands-on owner.
Punters are assuming she will get control due to a perceived lack of tempo, but in a small field at Caulfield, the rest of the runners should be close enough to pounce if she weakens at any stage.
This feels like a run where connections may finally accept that she has nothing more to prove after a stellar career.
Lay.
Access more betting tips for Saturday racing here.