This week, we focus on two over-bet runners who both present excellent risks and offer punters a strong opportunity to bet around them.
At Randwick, the Country Championships winner returns to the track in what looks to be a clear afterthought run.
This rarely ends well, especially when the peak performance has already come earlier in the campaign.
While at Moonee Valley, a front-running mare faces a genuine pressure challenge, which may prevent her from getting her way up front.
Avoid both runners at their current short prices in betting.
Jimmy Beeson continues to nail his lays at a good rate.
Looking for more of his tips? His Early Market Movers drop Friday.
This runner looks a strong risk, as this event appears to be an afterthought following the recent Country Championships Final.
He was solid in that win, although there was a clear drift in the market late.
This often signals caution and it would take a huge effort from the stable to have him peaking again so soon.
His get-back racing style also carries risk.
From gate 6, he may find himself buried in traffic and needing a lot of luck to work into the clear late in the piece.
There are several fresher horses in the race who have been set specifically for this event, and I expect them to hold an edge in both condition and intent.
Know Thyself looks severely over-bet due to the recent hype.
Avoid.
This talented mare returns to the track in a tougher race and now steps up to Benchmark 84 company, which brings stronger opposition than what she faced last start.
Although she was a good winner here to round out her previous campaign, that win came in an easier race and was against a field that does not quite stack up to this level.
The form around Pivot City whom she beat last time, seems to have overly influenced her current price.
From barrier 4 she faces some pressure from faster runners drawn inside, including Arentee and Prinzero, which could leave her caught wide or working early.
I expect the market to drift closer to the jump, with professional punters likely to be against her.
Elouyou looks under the odds in a deeper race.
Lay.
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