This week we focus on two runners that appear severely over-bet at Caulfield, due to the recency-bias instilled by their past heroics.
Godolphin present a last-start winner in Race 8 after he conquered hype horse The Black Cloud, all factors conducive to a runner being over-bet.
Whilst later in the day a horse with a similar profile of winning his past two starts, is entered by Ciaron Maher and is sure to be well-found after over-coming difficulties here last start.
Jimmy Beeson continues to correctly highlight the dud favourites in feature races.
Looking for more of his tips? His Early Market Movers drop Friday.
Caulfield Race 8 #1 Fleetwood $2.90
Is very well found and likely to be severely over-bet being a last-start winner and having the dominant form over hype horse The Black Cloud.
He won’t be missed by the mugs and is likely to be kept at an artificially compressed quote by bookmakers, all the way through betting.
No doubt he has good ability, however when they are this well found by the market they rarely represent any value in terms of price.
Gate 1 at Caulfield can also spell doom and if they opt to go back in the field.
He will be searching for an “out” at some stage which doesn’t always come at this circuit.
He looks a great risk and is one to avoid at the Heath on Saturday.
Lay.
Caulfield Race 10 #6 Chorlton Lane $2.50
Strikes a deep race here with plenty of talent elsewhere.
He is another fine example of a horse's recent heroics embedding recency bias in the price.
He does have excellent track and distance form (2:1-1-0) hence the price may not drift dramatically from here, however he does look very skinny currently.
His last start win over 1400m also featured a passage where he was held up, this being another factor video watchers never miss and one which often sees them over-bet as a result.
With a lack of tactical speed, he is also at risk of finding a running position which is not their first choice.
Pending track pattern this is a high-risk.
Avoid.
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