The C.F. Orr Stakes (1400m) shapes up as a classic game of cat and mouse at Caulfield, with tactics and mid-race tempo set to play a crucial role.
There’s plenty of quality on show among the resuming runners, but with little natural speed in the race strategy will be of massive importance.
If Schwarz gets a comfortable lead, he’ll be hard to run down.
At the early market odds, he represented solid value compared to the two leading fancies, who seemed under the odds.
However, there’s one runner well out in the market who appears massively over the odds and could cause an upset.
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We are likely to see a Good 4 possibly even a touch firmer, with the rail in the True position.
Expect a slight advantage to on-speed runners early, but as the meeting progresses the track should even out offering a fairer surface for all.
Much depends on where Mr Brightside settles from his awkward barrier.
Typically he positions just behind the leading group, but while he is fresh may find himself a few pairs back and off the fence.
Up front, the Group 2 Australia Stakes winner Schwarz is expected to push forward from a middle gate and take up the lead.
The only three-year-old in the field Private Life maps to settle right behind the speed from the inside draw, along with Queensland longshot Freedom Rally.
Southport Tycoon should settle closer from a low draw, likely positioning three pairs back on the inside of Mr Brightside.
Steparty should find a nice midfield spot off the fence and track Another Wil.
That leaves Pinstriped and Semana settling in the back third, but with a moderate tempo, I expect the runs to come as early as the 700m mark.
I’ve long been a Mr Brightside fan and there’s no doubting his class, but taking $2.50 in this line-up is a brave call.
He is ultra-genuine and always hits the line strongly, but I have concerns about a potential flat spot between the 600m and 350m marks, which could leave him vulnerable.
With the big names eyeing each other off mid-race, this tactical battle could set up perfectly for a strong closer.
And that runner is Pinstriped, who represents tremendous each-way value at $21.00 in early markets.
Despite being lightly raced for a six-year-old, five of his seven career wins have come either fresh or second-up.
Last preparation, he stormed home to beat Mr Brightside second-up in the G1 Memsie Stakes (1400m) after being stiff not to win the G2 P.B. Lawrence over the same distance when resuming.
He loves this trip and is drawn to stay off the fence.
Given the expected tempo he may need to make his move earlier than usual, but if he gets the right run, he’ll be flying home late.
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