This week, we focus on two favourites who are severely over-bet due to the hype factor surrounding them and a market that has worked itself into fever pitch.
Midway through the card at Caulfield, Godolphin’s “best two-year-old” has attracted heavy support, largely due to the strong narrative around the horse.
Later in the day in the Group 1 feature, Mr Brightside faces a tricky first-up assignment against several rivals with a fitness edge and a far greater motivation to secure a place at stud.
Avoid both runners at their current short quotes in betting.
Jimmy Beeson continues to nail his lays at a good rate.
Looking for more of his tips? His Early Market Movers drop Friday.
There is massive hype around this Godolphin colt, touted as their “best two-year-old” of the season.
Naturally, this has led to him being significantly over-bet.
I love opposing horses when the market latches onto a narrative and overdoes it, especially when the horse has only a limited historical record.
This is a deep race featuring several high-quality colts on the Blue Diamond path, with some likely progressing towards the Golden Slipper.
Aleppo Pine will certainly have his work cut out against strong competition.
From gate 2, with a typically passive Jamie Mott in the saddle, there is a real risk he could settle further back than ideal if the jockey opts for a conservative ride.
This could leave backers reliant on luck in running.
I expect the big model betting teams to take him on late as liquidity builds, targeting the fact that he is likely to need a perfectly timed run from midfield or worse.
Avoid.
I’m happy to take on the champion here, as he looks vulnerable first up despite his strong fresh record.
He is facing multiple rivals who have already returned to racing and hold a fitness edge, which is often a crucial factor in this early Group 1 feature.
The draw (gate 8) presents a tricky scenario.
While he has the tactical speed to go forward if desired, I doubt connections will want to cut at the fitter horses this early in his campaign.
Several key colts in this race are playing for enormous stakes, aiming to secure a stud career with a peak performance here.
By contrast, Mr Brightside does not have the same stable-driven urgency which could prove telling.
I can see him storming home late when it’s all over, while a few of the sharper runners kick off the front and do just enough to hold him at bay.
Avoid.
Access more betting tips for Saturday racing here.