Melbourne Cup Tip Flemington Race 7 #13 Surprise Baby $9.50
Whilst there were a couple of hard luck stories in last year's Melbourne Cup, this crowd favourite was one who had to come from last and wide out on the home turn.
He produced a withering sprint to go down by under a length.
The Paul Presker trained gelding was charging home that day and he has drawn a much better in barrier 7 this year.
He has had the perfect preparation, having only two starts since that Melbourne Cup and he was getting home hard again second-up in the Turnbull Stakes.
That effort showed he is in tip top condition and it will be no surprise to see him produce the run of a lifetime.
Now with the services of last year's Cup winning jockey Craig Williams, expect him to settle a touch closer this time. When we're in the straight and horses are starting to drop off, watch for Williams to be steering his way through the field and coming home at a rate of knots.
His superior turn of foot and ability to run two miles are the main reasons I expect Surprise Baby to win the 2020 Melbourne Cup.
Melbourne Cup Tip Flemington Race 7 #13 Surprise Baby $9.50
The baby returns and is back for revenge in the 2020 Melbourne Cup, after finishing fifth beaten 0.9 lengths last year.
On that occasion, he drew barrier 20 of 24 and was asked to round the entire field up. It was an almighty effort as he lengthened a stride down the outside in doing so, running the fastest last 200m of the race.
His preparation this year has been less hyped, but I believe he is going just as well and if not better.
I'm expecting a bold run in what is a strong Cup!
Melbourne Cup Tip Flemington Race 7 #21 Tiger Moth $7.00
The international with a light-weight fits the profile of recent successful Melbourne Cup runners.
The booking of Kerrin McEvoy suggests he's the best of the internationals and he'll be very hard to beat.
Lightly raced with only four career starts, but he's clearly a stayer with above average ability.
Melbourne Cup Tip Flemington Race 7 #11 Prince of Arran $12.00
In what is an open race with multiple chances over the famous Flemington two miles, I’ll swing the way of the Charlie Fellowes trained eight-year-old Prince of Arran.
The now Australian regular lines up in his third Melbourne Cup, after going agonisingly close on both occasions when third behind Cross counter in 2018 before finishing runner-up to Vow And Declare last year.
He looks to have come to Australia in career best form, having run fourth in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) only beaten a narrow 1.95-lengths behind Verry Elleegant.
His run was full of merit with the gelding able to reel off the best closing sectionals from the 800m mark, including a rapid closing burst of 11.92. This confirms that he is going better than ever.
He arrives on Cup day at peak fitness, with an identical set up which has seen him in the finish in the past.
He is proven at the 3200m (9:1:2:2), loves Flemington (3:1:1:1) where he is yet to miss a placing and all his Australian form (7:2:2:2) rates well enough to win this year’s Melbourne Cup.
He has drawn perfectly in barrier 1 to do no work in the run and they have found premiership leading Jockey Jaime Kah to take the ride, in what looks a match made in heaven.
He has the correct lead up, brings exceptional form to this year’s Melbourne Cup and can’t do anything but run well.
It's hard to go past the internationals in the big one, with little-to-no weight on their backs.
The booking of Kerrin McEvoy is a positive, as he's the best staying rider in Australia in my opinion.
He's drawn a sticky gate (23), but that just means we get a better price!
Melbourne Cup Tip Flemington Race 7 #11 Finche $20.00
Keen to be with Finche in the 2020 Melbourne Cup, a horse who hasn't had a lot of luck this preparation but continues to race very well.
He comes into the Cup this year fourth-up, most recently finishing fifth behind Verry Elleegant in the Caulfield Cup over 2400m.
He was yet again caught three wide without cover in that race, just as he has been in every single start so far this prep.
He managed to box on very gallantly to finish only 2.5 lengths off the winner, and the way he kept fighting back through the line indicates he is a horse who is giving his all and will be very competitive up in trip now.
Rock hard fit, the booking of James McDonald is a big push within itself.
From barrier 6, I expect him to finally be able to race with cover in a position just behind the speed.
He started as favourite in the Cup last year and was only beaten 1.4 lengths on the line, so you know he is proven at the distance and intensity of a Melbourne Cup tilt.
He definitely has the scope to turn the tables on a number of rivals, and I'm happy to play him each way.
My boxed first four numbers are 1/5/11/13/19/21
Melbourne Cup Tip Flemington Race 7 #21 Tiger Moth $7.00
What an outstanding edition of the Melbourne Cup, which shapes to be a cracker.
Tiger Moth is the horse I'm keen to be with. Despite having a few things against him come Cup Day, he has an untapped ability which I can't resist.
He is looking to take out the Cup in only his fifth career start, bringing the phenomenal northern hemisphere three-year-old form line.
Recent Melbourne Cup champs Cross Counter (2018) and Rekindling (2017) came here with the same profile, which speaks volumes.
What I'm most impressed by is the horse's progression in his short career.
His run in the Irish Derby back in June was outstanding, where he showed a dynamic turn of foot carrying 58.5kg to run a bold second to Santiago. That galloper then went on to run 2.25 lengths off Stradivarius in the Goodwood over 3218m. That is the right form.
Tiger Moth then went to a new level in his next start, taking out a Group 3 over 2414m by 4 lengths, exploding away from his rivals.
He'll combine with three time Melbourne Cup winner Kerrin McEvoy, which is a huge plus.
He will need a perfect ride from barrier 23, but the key to this horse is his elite acceleration which will enable him to get out of any tricky situations.
My first 4 selections are Tiger Moth, Surprise Baby, Verry Elleegant, Prince Of Arran