Turnbull Stakes

Distance 2000m Grade Group 1 Track  Flemington Prizemoney $500,000 Class Set Weights 4y.o & Up 2018 winner Winx ($1.10)   The Turnbull Stakes is a Group 1 staying event for four-year-olds and older, held at Flemington racecourse. The 2000m clash serves as key lead-up race for the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup.  The winner of this year's edition picks up $300,000 in prizemoney and will be exempt from ballot into the 2019 Caulfield Cup.  Notable winners of the Turnbull Stakes include Winx (2017, 2018), Efficient (2009), Makybe Diva (2005), Northerly (2002) and Sunline (2001).  The early favourite in all-in markets is Mystic Journey $2.80. The Tasmanian put in a huge run second-up in the Group One Makybe Diva Stakes, falling agonisingly short of an eighth straight win.  Second favourite Mr Quickie comes off a huge effort in the same race, finishing 0.75 lengths off Mystic Journey after having far more work to do in the run. If he can peak off that performance, there is no doubt he'll once again fight out the finish.  Another runner of serious note from that race is the Hayes & Dabernig trained Rostropovich ($13). The five-year-old son of Frankel returned to Flemington for his second Australian campaign and made good ground late last start, which indicates that he is crying out for the 2000m.  Acceptances for the 2019 Turnbull Stakes will be announced at 9:30am on Wednesday, 2nd October.    Nominations for the 2019 Group One Turnbull Stakes are below:  Horse Name Trainer Weight AVILIUS (GB) James Cummings 59kg MYSTIC JOURNEY Adam Trinder 56kg HARTNELL (GB) James Cummings 57.5kg HUMIDOR (NZ) Ciaron Maher & David Eustace 57.5kg TRAP FOR FOOLS Jarrod McLean 57.5kg VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ) Chris Waller 54.5kg BEST OF DAYS (GB) James Cummings 57.5kg MR QUICKIE Phillip Stokes 56.5kg VOW AND DECLARE Danny O'Brien 54.5kg ROSTROPOVICH (IRE) David & B Hayes & T Dabernig 55kg FINCHE (GB) Chris Waller 55kg BRIMHAM ROCKS (GB) Chris Waller 55kg NIGHT’S WATCH (NZ) Chris Waller 55kg YOUNGSTAR Chris Waller 52.5kg KINGS WILL DREAM (IRE) Chris Waller 54.5kg SULLY (NZ) Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young 54.5kg LOOKS LIKE ELVIS Bryan Dais 54.5kg KENTUCKY BREEZE Levi Kavanagh 54.5kg SOUND (GER) Michael Moroney 54.5kg

Distance 2000m Grade Group 1 Track Rating Good 4 Prizemoney $150,000 Class Group 1 (4-Y-O & Up, SW + P, Maidens Ineligible) 2017 winner Winx ($1.20) This week with the great mare sure to dominate again and the nation willing her on, it would be un-Australian to pot her!  Hence, we will focus on the best runners to include in exotic bet types and also a comprehensive "Winx Out" selection guide- a market that many bookies will offer closer to jump.    Race Flemington Track Traits Flemington is currently rated a Good 4 with the rail out 9m the entire circuit and fine conditions predicted for Saturday. With the rail out, it can be argued the advantage for on-speed types is enhanced, however the spaces at Flemington are vast and run-on profiles typically still have their chance. As always, a close watch is advised early for any signs of track bias.    Racing Market Movers The great mare Winx remains rock solid at $1.16 and as the multi rolls continue to build, expect the price to shorten further. A longer price move has been seen for Trap For Fools, trimmed from $101 to $81.       Key Runners #1 Grunt  Was expected to run much better last start in The Underwood, where he jumped favourite yet could only manage a battling 6 of 9 after leading. He was revved up early from a wide gate to get across the face on that occasion, hence willing to forgive. Draws out again for this in gate 9 and expect the team to revert to run-on tactics on this occasion, with a noted speedster drawn inside. I like him more with a run-on profile and he will be highly fancied in the 'Winx out market' to atone. This is the absolute A-grade, however back to his favoured Flemington he is right up to it. Leading hope.    #2 Winx  Simply wins.    #4 Kings Will Dream Will get the speed he needs to run-on here with Trap For Fools engaged and whilst he won't be as dynamic as Winx, he will be running home hard. The stable instructions are likely to be in favour of a more positive ride from the inside draw in gate 1, and he is a good chance of racing in the front half of this field. Ridden in this manner is his best chance to claim the top prize behind Winx. Can find clean air from a more forward position this time out and be close enough to fill second placing.   #5 Jon Snow Australian Derby winner who ran a bottler in The Makybe Diva here last start, when placing 3 of 12. He was ridden close-to-speed on that occasion in behind the leader. I doubt he gets a cosy on-speed run this time out, as he is the one most likely doing all the work carting the entire field up to the tearaway leader Trap For Fools. He is the workhorse on this occasion and should be avoided at all costs. No.    #10 Youngstar Brilliant throughout the Brisbane winter carnival when winning The Oaks, and good in The Derby against the boys. She has returned in great order and shown enough in the early runs this prep, in good Sydney grade. Slight concern she is just too far off them when they start to sprint up, however she does have a lethal turn of foot. Like others, if they opt to ride closer she could surprise a few of her more fancied rivals. Has the ability to put in a big run.   Of The Others #7 Trap For Fools came up at ridiculous odds with some bookies in early markets, opening at $150. The pro punters were doing as much as they could at that price, in recognition that he leads on his ear and could be left alone out in front until the death. Is a genuine top 3 hope and looks a great bet at odds in the 'Winx out markets' if they bet a big price.    Best Exotic Play Box Quinella (just in case)  1 Grunt, 2 Winx, 4 Kings Will Dream, 7 Trap For Fools    Best Racing Tips for 'Winx Out Market' 1st  Kings Will Dream 2nd  Grunt 3rd  Trap For Fools 4th  Youngstar There are loads more Flemington tips in our dedicated Flemington tip market. It includes tips from all of Australia's top racing analysts in the media and professional punters who have tips posted for race meetings at the track.

The great mare Winx continues on her journey towards equine immortality in the Turnbull Stakes at Flemington this Saturday, when she looks to notch up her twenty-first consecutive win. With only Black Caviar having more successive wins, the Australian thoroughbred sensation may meet her toughest test yet to defend her winning run. Darren Weir, might well have been foxing when he all but dismissed the chances of his two-time Group 1 winner, Humidor, beating Winx on Saturday. Despite the mountainous task that confronts the five-year-old gelding, there seems to be more hope for the top-weight than Weir has let on. Here are the key form facts that make some case for Humidor. He is a dual group one winner - one of those wins was in this year's Australian Cup (2000m) where he beat 2016 Caulfield Cup winner Jameka. He made light work of beating world-class Hartnell at his latest outing, swooping from last to first to win by three and a quarter lengths on the post. Humidor has an impeccable record over the 2000m, winning three times and placing once from four starts. Flemington’s sweeping turns, and wide and lengthy straight, suits his swooping style. His two wins from three runs at the track is evidence to this claim. Despite Humidor's impressive stat sheet, his challenge to end Winx’s run of success is steep. The super mare’s George Main (1600m) run showed all the signs that she wanted more ground. The 2000m distance is where her most convincing victories have played out. The market has started Winx at $1.15, her longest odds this preparation. That said, she's undoubtedly one of the shortest priced starters in the 70 year history of the Turnbull Stakes.