This week, we focus on two popular favourites who both appear severely over-bet and should start longer in the market as we approach race time.
At Eagle Farm, in the Group 1 feature, the Waller–J Mac factor is in full effect for a well-performed mare who may run out of runway late, forced to come from well back in the field.
Meanwhile, at Randwick, a horse who is very deep into their prep and now may be running on tired legs.
Plus, he suffers from a notable jockey downgrade.
Avoid both runners at their current short prices in betting.
Jimmy Beeson nailed his lay last week with the $2.30 favourite getting rolled.
Looking for more of his tips? His Early Market Movers drop Friday.
Joliestar now appears at rock-bottom odds, with almost everyone jumping aboard, thanks to the expected drier track conditions this Saturday.
She is certainly high quality and oozes talent, but draws wide in gate 13, and a few of her key rivals are likely to settle ahead of her.
This sets up as a race where she may simply run out of time.
The J Mac factor is in full swing, likely ensuring she is over-bet.
Her price looks to be artificially compressed by bookmakers due to the anticipated flood of support.
While she may move up stylishly in the final stages, those settling in the first half of the field could be off and gone, especially if there is any hint of leader bias.
Expect her price to drift late, with $3+ a likely starting point.
Avoid.
Cool Jakey has been racing consistently, but he has now been up for a long time and looks a genuine risk of going stale.
He could not sprint with them late over the 1600 metres last start when finishing second of eleven.
That may be a sign he has reached the end of his campaign.
While it’s tempting for connections to keep pressing on through the weaker winter races, this horse looks like he’s ready for the paddock.
He probably should have gone there after his last run.
Adding to the concern is a huge jockey downgrade, from the red-hot Adam Hyeronimus to the less experienced Jace McMurray.
That shift could prove costly, especially for a horse that needs to be ridden positively on-speed.
There’s plenty against him here, and he looks like one of the best lay options of the day.
Lay.
Access more betting tips for Saturday racing here.