It was a perfect 2/2 last Saturday with Gatsby and Pharari going down at ridiculously short quotes.
This week we focus on two over-bet favourites that appear priced on their hype alone and have significant challenges to overcome.
Early in the card at Flemington a last-start straight track winner has been well supported, where an over-reaction is likely to have occurred.
Whilst in the feature sprint at Randwick, a past Everest hero looks tested against a few of these and should be forced to chase form a long way out.
Jimmy Beeson continues to nail his lays at a good rate.
Looking for more of his tips? His Early Market Movers drop Friday.
Flemington Race 1 #5 Moby Dick $2.50
He comes up far too short here after starting at $14 last start in a similar Benchmark 78 grade.
Being forced to take $2.50 here looks ugly.
He was good here last start, however I believe the market has him over-bet with the models over-reacting to the fact he has now had the winning experience down the Flemington straight.
There's a small knock on Damian Lane in terms of vigour over the final 50m when compared to the strength of a Shinn or Zahra.
In a tough finish here where the horse may need throwing over the line, it represents a negative.
He appears severely over-bet to my eye from an SP profile angle and should start $3+ come start time.
Avoid.
Randwick Race 7 #1 Giga Kick $2.60
Going to pot the past Everest Champion here who I doubt has returned as well and looks under pressure to take his place in the big race.
He is up against it here with the highly credentialled Bella Nipotina and Think About It, who will not make it easy for him.
As a get-back profile he will also be forced to chase from a long way out, with a few noted leaders looking to run them along in this, he won't have the ability to sit and sprint from closer range.
Expect he is flashing at them late but it is likely to be all over, and he will potentially be regarded as a second-tier sprinter after Saturday.
Lay.
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