This week we focus on two heavily favoured Randwick runners, who appear vulnerable in their respective fields and face significant challenges to win.
Early in the card at Randwick a Waterhouse/Bott import resumes, however appears to be priced on his first-up heroics last preparation.
While later in the day a gun filly on the rise, faces the A-Graders for the first time and from a trick draw will need to be at peak again to beat these.
Jimmy Beeson went 2/2 last Saturday including the scalp of Storm Boy
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Randwick Race 3 #6 Bear On The Loose $2.50
This galloper seems priced off his impressive Australian debut last preparation, where he showed dominant form and looked poised to make an impact in feature races.
While his first-up performance last campaign delivered a strong ratings figure, he regressed in his next start, failing to finish in the placings.
Although he has been prepped with several trials leading into this race, his lack of race fitness compared to some of his rivals leaves him vulnerable.
Look for a strong finish from the back of the field, but others closer to the pace should have his measure.
Randwick Race 7 #6 Autumn Glow $2.00
There's no doubt this filly is talented, but this is her first encounter with genuine A-Grade competition.
In comparison, many of her rivals here come with strong 2yo form and early 3yo campaigns at the highest level.
My other concern is barrier 9, which forces her to race from the rear of the field and connections likely would have preferred to settle her closer as her fitness builds.
J Mac sticking with her over Ameena shows his long-term faith, likely tied to upcoming Group 1 targets.
However with her race craft still developing and against more seasoned competition, she may struggle in this high-pressure event.
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