This week’s lay selections focus on two high-profile Randwick runners, in key feature races where both appear severely over-bet.
Midway through the card the Kosciusko favourite is a classic example of recency bias, after winning this race last year and looks vulnerable with good pressure from out wide expected.
Whilst later in the day in the King Charles the embarrassment suffered by the riders last time Pride Of Jenni won here would have cut deep. Expect much more intent from her rivals on this occasion.
Avoid both runners at their current short quotes in betting.
Jimmy Beeson continues to nail his lays at a good rate.
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Randwick Race 5 #3 Front Page $2.40
Recency bias at its best here with this runner winning the same race last year and the mugs simply latching into the fact “he will do it again”!
Throw in the J Mac tax and you have a severely over-bet horse who bookmakers will keep artificially short most of the way through betting.
I can see him being the big drifter here as the pros get involved late to gap the price, and he could touch $3+ come start time.
Whilst he does have plenty of early speed, in a high-value race I expect a few of these to carve across from the outside with good intent in the search for forward positions, which should ensure he is softened up through the first 300m.
He will be paddling over the final 100m and should be a sitting duck for a number of the run-on profiles, especially if off the rail is preferred.
Avoid.
Randwick Race 9 #9 Pride Of Jenni $2.40
She’s good, but will be tested here and will need to peak again following 3 tough runs this preparation.
At this late stage in the day, the Randwick track can favour those who are racing off the rail and coming down the middle and outside lanes of the track.
If this holds true, she is going to be highly vulnerable late.
After what happened at this venue last time she was here when they let her get away with murder up front, I doubt on this occasion the gun riders will allow those favours.
I expect them to chase with more intent in this and particularly J Mac will be out for revenge after having his pants pulled down.
The price is over-bet due to her high profile and expected investment, hence this represents an excellent opportunity to take her on at rock-bottom odds.
Lay.
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