Deane Lester Flemington tips strike before Cup Day Oct 31, 2022
Deane Lester found three winners for punters on Victoria Derby Day. Check Deane's expert comments below on the winners.
If you want to get set for Melbourne Cup Day to receive Deane's staking plan fo.....READ MORE
02/11/21 Horse racing tips on Cup Day from GTO staff Nov 02, 2021
We asked our staff to give us their Melbourne Cup tips for the big day.
There are varying levels of punting experience and success amongst those who had decided on their Cup horse at the time t.....READ MORE
Melbourne Cup tips 2021: A brutally honest assessment of your horse Nov 01, 2021
You will read a lot of positive comments about every runner in the 2021 Melbourne Cup, but the reality is there are only a handful of horses that have a genuine chance of winning.
To cut through th.....READ MORE
02/11/21 Melbourne Cup Tips Oct 31, 2021
1. TWILIGHT PAYMENT (GB)
9 year old bay gelding (6-5-2013) Sire: Teofilo (IRE) Dam: Dream On Buddy (IRE)
Trainer: Joseph O'Brien (Co. Kilkenny (IRE)) Jockey: Jye McNeil 58kg Barrier:2
.....READ MORE
13/10/21 David Gately tips & early predictions for the Melbourne Cup Oct 13, 2021
Date
November 2
Distance
3200m
Track
Flemington
Class
Handicap
2020 winner
Twilight Payment ($26)
.....READ MORE
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Melbourne Cup Tips
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02/11/21 Melbourne Cup Tips
1. TWILIGHT PAYMENT (GB)
9 year old bay gelding (6-5-2013) Sire: Teofilo (IRE) Dam: Dream On Buddy (IRE)
Trainer: Joseph O'Brien (Co. Kilkenny (IRE)) Jockey: Jye McNeil 58kg Barrier:2
Record: 36:9-11-8 Prizemoney:$5,682,805 1st Up: 9:0-5-1 2nd Up: 8:1-1-4
Rick says...
Was enormous last year when winning the Cup from the front.
Is in just as good as form this time, however he will be forced to carry an extra 2.5kgs up to 58kgs.
It is unlikely we’ll see a 9 year old carrying top weight winning, however I won’t write him off.
2. INCENTIVISE
5 year old bay gelding (22-10-2016) Sire: Shamus Award Dam: Miss Argyle (Iglesia)
Trainer: Peter G Moody (Pakenham OC) Jockey: Brett Prebble 57kg Barrier:16
Record: 12:9-0-0 Prizemoney:$4,643,300 1st Up: 3:1-0-0 2nd Up: 2:1-0-0
Rick says...
Star stayer, who has measured up to each challenge he has been presented with.
He couldn’t have been more impressive in the Caulfield Cup, making it a true staying test in the soft conditions.
Although he is carrying a big weight, this former Toowoomba trained runner appears bullet proof.
I believe he will space them to win comfortably.
3. SPANISH MISSION (USA)
6 year old bay horse (6-4-2016) Sire: Noble Mission (GB) Dam: Limonar (IRE) (Street Cry (IRE)
Trainer: Andrew Balding (Kingsclere (GB)) Jockey: Craig Williams 57kg Barrier:14
Record: 18:6-4-3 Prizemoney:$2,092,657 1st Up: 7:0-4-1 2nd Up: 4:2-0-0
Rick says...
The spruik around this import is based around his close second to Stradivarius.
He had every chance to go past the champion stayer, who wasn’t quite as good as his form 12 months earlier.
History suggests 57kgs first up isn’t the right profile for a UK based galloper.
Distance suits and is in my top 4 based on his overall staying ability.
4. VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ)
6 year old brown mare (12-10-2015) Sire: Zed (NZ) Dam: Opulence (NZ) (Danroad)
Trainer: Chris Waller (Flemington) Jockey: James McDonald 57kg Barrier:19
Record: 33:14-7-3 Prizemoney:$9,690,744 1st Up: 7:1-3-1 2nd Up: 7:4-1-0
Rick says...
Nine-time Group 1 winner who was pretty good in the Cox Plate last start, which is as good a lead up race as you can get.
Up 1.5kgs in weight from last year’s Melbourne Cup. She was back near the rear and was one of the fastest closers, though she was entitle to given she had little work to do.
Expect her to give a big sight once again.
5. EXPLOSIVE JACK (NZ)
4 year old bay horse (9-11-2017) Sire: Jakkalberry (IRE) Dam: Extra Explosive (NZ) (Ekraar (USA) Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace (Caulfield) Jockey: John Allen 54kg Barrier:4
Record: 12:5-1-2 Prizemoney:$1,814,730 1st Up: 2:1-0-0 2nd Up: 2:0-0-0 Rick says...
Rick says...
Triple Derby winner who ran a solid fifth in the Turnbull stakes.
Jack’s run in the Caulfield Cup (17th) was too bad to be true, so I am prepared to forgive that effort.
He’s got an inform jockey in John Allen and the Maher/Eustace stable is flying at the moment.
They’re racing for the top 10.
6. THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ)
6 year old bay horse (30-9-2015) Sire: Savabeel Dam: The Glitzy One (Flying Spur)
Trainer: Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman (Cambridge (NZ)) Jockey: Damian Lane 54kg Barrier:5
Record: 35:6-5-3 Prizemoney:$1,899,409 1st Up: 7:2-2-2 2nd Up: 7:1-1-0
Rick says...
Another who didn’t fire a shot in the Caulfield Cup.
He ran a career best, in last year’s Melbourne Cup, finishing fourth with 53.5kgs.
He has only 54kgs this year and could be one for the exotics again as he was ticking along OK before last start’s failure.
Watch Michael Gannon and Dean Watling's early bets for Melbourne Cup week!
7. DELPHI (IRE)
5 year old bay horse (31-1-2017) Sire: Galileo (IRE) Dam: Bye Bye Birdie (IRE) (Oasis Dream (GB)
Trainer: Anthony & Sam Freedman (Mornington) Jockey: Damien Oliver 53.5kg Barrier:3
Record: 10:5-1-0 Prizemoney:$360,841 1st Up: 4:1-0-0 2nd Up: 2:1-1-0
Rick says...
Won the Group 2 Herbert Power over 2400M, then did a bit of work to find the lead from the wide gate in the Caulfield Cup.
Didn’t finish off so if ridden with a sit on this occasion, I’m prepared to put him into the multiples at the long price.
8. OCEAN BILLY (NZ)
6 year old chestnut gelding (5-10-2015) Sire: Ocean Park (NZ) Dam: Cool Storm (NZ)
Trainer: Chris Waller (Flemington) Jockey: Damien Thornton 53.5kg Barrier:13
Record: 25:7-1-1 Prizemoney:$547,720 1st Up: 5:0-1-0 2nd Up: 5:3-0-0
Rick says...
Auckland Cup winner over this distance though hasn’t really troubled the scorers over here.
Can’t see him getting near these.
9. SELINO (GB)
6 year old bay gelding (5-5-2016) Sire: Champs Elysees (GB) Dam: Air Kiss (GB)
Trainer: Chris Waller (Flemington) Jockey: Ron Stewart 53.5kg Barrier:24
Record: 20:3-5-2 Prizemoney:$1,481,470 1st Up: 4:0-2-0 2nd Up: 4:0-1-0
Rick says...
Sydney Cup winner over this trip, who’s best run this prep was fourth in the Bart Cummings over 2520M.
He will stay the distance, though won’t have the necessary acceleration to put him in the finish.
10. JOHNNY GET ANGRY (NZ)
4 year old bay gelding (9-11-2017) Sire: Tavistock (NZ) Dam: Luminova (NZ)
Trainer: Denis Pagan (Flemington) Jockey: Lachlan King 53kg (a) Barrier:22
Record: 11:1-1-2 Prizemoney:$1,268,675 1st Up: 2:0-0-0 2nd Up: 2:0-0-1
Rick says...
Was a Cinderella story last Spring carnival, winning the Victoria Derby for former AFL dual premiership coach Denis Pagan.
He’s receiving publicity for the wrong reasons this year, with Glen Boss stating Johnny shouldn’t be in the field because of his sub-standard performances.
I’ve felt all along he was being trained for one race only this prep, and that’s The Cup.
Expect a much better run this time.
11. KNIGHTS ORDER (IRE)
7 year old bay or brown gelding (5-5-2015) Sire: So You Think (NZ) Dam: Lamanka Lass (USA)
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott (Flemington) Jockey: Daniel Stackhouse 53kg Barrier:9
Record: 21:7-0-2 Prizemoney:$473,501 1st Up: 5:0-0-0 2nd Up: 5:2-0-0
Rick says...
Led all the way to win this year’s Brisbane Cup and should pilot the field again here.
Disappointing in the Geelong Cup and Hotham Handicap at his last couple, so I can’t have him.
12. PERSAN
5 year old brown gelding (22-9-2016) Sire: Pierro Dam: Ofcourseican (Mossman)
Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace (Caulfield) Jockey: Luke Currie 53kg Barrier:11
Record: 27:7-5-3 Prizemoney:$1,404,721 1st Up: 5:1-0-2 2nd Up: 5:1-1-0
Rick says...
Is a consistent performer at any level and was only 2.45 lengths fifth, in last years Melbourne Cup, where he carried 51kgs.
Goes up 2kgsthis year but is a top four hope.
13. CARIF
6 year old brown gelding (13-9-2015) Sire: So You Think (NZ) Dam: Norzita (NZ)
Trainer: Peter & Paul Snowden (Flemington) Jockey: Blaike McDougall 52.5kg Barrier: 8
Record: 37:3-8-1 Prizemoney: $730,285 1st Up: 7:0-0-0 2nd Up: 7:1-0-1
Rick says...
Performs better over these longer trips though hasn’t got what’s required to be competitive here.
14. MASTER OF WINE (GER)
7 year old bay gelding (13-4-2015) Sire: Maxios (GB) Dam: Magma (GER)
Trainer: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes (Flemington) Jockey: Fred Kersley 52.5kg Barrier:6
Record: 28:5-5-4 Prizemoney:$900,309 1st Up: 8:2-2-1 2nd Up: 8:1-1-1
Rick says...
Had big wraps on him last year, though hasn’t reached the heights that were expected of him.
Is a distance query for mine.
15. PONDUS (GB)
6 year old bay gelding (8-2-2016) Sire: Sea The Moon (GER) Dam: Diablerette (GB)
Trainer: Robert Hickmont (Mount Macedon) Jockey: Rachel King 52.5kg Barrier:1
Record: 19:3-7-1 Prizemoney:$336,109 1st Up: 5:0-2-0 2nd Up: 5:2-2-0
Rick says..
Hasn’t produced a win in Australia in 4 attempts.
From the Lloyd Williams Mount Macedon stable who know what it takes to win a cup.
Not this year.
16. GRAND PROMENADE (GB)
6 year old bay gelding (1-3-2016) Sire: Champs Elysees (GB) Dam: Zacchera (GB)
Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace (Caulfield) Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy 52kg Barrier:21
Record: 19:8-4-2 Prizemoney:$1,009,800 1st Up: 3:0-1-1 2nd Up: 3:0-1-1
Rick says..
This bloke doesn’t put a foot wrong!
His jockey Kerrin McEvoy has won three Melbourne Cups.
He ran second in the Andrew Ramsden here over 2800M carrying 58.5 kgs and gets in here with 52 kilos.
If there was to be an upset, he could be the one.
17. MIAMI BOUND (NZ)
5 year old bay mare (7-11-2016) Sire: Reliable Man (GB) Dam: Arapaho Miss
Trainer: Danny O'Brien (Flemington) Jockey: Patrick Moloney 52kg Barrier:17
Record: 26:5-0-5 Prizemoney:$1,672,200 1st Up: 6:1-0-1 2nd Up: 5:1-0-0
Rick says..
Has placed a couple of times over the staying trips though is not going well enough.
18. PORT GUILLAUME (FR)
5 year old bay gelding (29-3-2017) Sire: Le Havre (IRE) Dam: Keira (FR)
Trainer: Ben & JD Hayes (Flemington) Jockey: Harry Coffey 52kg Barrier:23
Record: 10:4-0-0 Prizemoney:$308,688 1st Up: 3:2-0-0 2nd Up: 3:1-0-0
Rick says..
Won the Group 2 Prix Hocquart over 2500M last year.
Not going well enough.
19. SHE’S IDEEL
6 year old bay mare (5-10-2015) Sire: Dundeel (NZ) Dam: Ana’s Mail
Trainer: Bjorn Baker (Warwick Farm) Jockey: Craig Newitt 52kg Barrier:20
Record: 25:6-6-5 Prizemoney:$1,101,075 1st Up: 5:0-2-2 2nd Up: 5:0-2-1 Rick says..
Rick says..
Finished off OK in the Caulfield Cup.
Unsure about the 3200M.
20. FUTURE SCORE (IRE)
5 year old bay gelding (29-3-2017) Sire: Le Havre (IRE) Dam: Keira (FR)
Trainer: Ben & JD Hayes (Flemington) Jockey: Harry Coffey 52kg Barrier:23
Record: 10:4-0-0 Prizemoney:$308,688 1st Up: 3:2-0-0 2nd Up: 3:1-0-0
Rick says..
The listed Cranbourne Cup is his biggest success here so he won’t be troubling this field.
21. TRALEE ROSE (NZ)
5 year old bay mare (13-10-2016) Sire: Tavistock (NZ) Dam: Star of Tralee
Trainer: Symon Wilde (Warrnambool) Jockey: Dean Holland 51kg Barrier:12
Record: 15:6-4-2 Prizemoney:$744,725 1st Up: 3:1-0-1 2nd Up: 3:1-1-1 Rick says..
Rick says..
Loved the way she attacked the line in the Geelong Cup.
She has Zabeel in her bloodlines which suggests she will get the trip even though her Adelaide Cup run was below par.
I things she can push for the exacta position and run the race of a lifetime.
22. FLOATING ARTIST (GB)
6 year old bay or brown gelding (29-2-2016) Sire: Nathaniel (IRE) Dam: Miss Kenton (IRE)
Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace (Caulfield) Jockey: Teodore Nugent 50kg (a) Barrier:10
Record: 16:5-2-1 Prizemoney:$479,018 1st Up: 6:2-0-0 2nd Up: 5:1-1-0
Rick says..
He ran a bottler in the Moonee Valley Cup, a race that has produced Melbourne Cup winners.
He is one I took in early doubles, so I will be silently cheering.
Definite lightweight hope.
23. GREAT HOUSE (IRE)
5 year old bay gelding (28-12-2016) Sire: Galileo (IRE) Dam: Anja (IRE)
Trainer: Chris Waller (Flemington) Jockey: Michael Dee 50kg Barrier:7
Record: 15:5-2-3 Prizemoney:$694,290 1st Up: 3:1-1-1 2nd Up: 3:2-0-1
Rick says..
Won the Hotham Handicap on Saturday however it was an inferior edition this year.
Top 10 chance given the low weight.
24. SIR LUCAN (IRE)
4 year old bay horse (24-2-2018) Sire: Camelot (GB) Dam: Sparrow (IRE)
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott (Flemington) Jockey: Glen Boss 50kg Barrier:18
Record: 8:2-1-0 Prizemoney:$152,926 1st Up: 4:0-1-0 2nd Up: 3:2-0-0
Rick says..
Northern Hemisphere youngster who is with the Waterhouse/ Bott stable.
An unknown at this level so may be one to throw into your exotics.
History says
Horses need to be able to stay the journey and have a turn of foot over the final 300 metres. Those who have won at their last start have a great winning record in the Cup
Lightweights have an advantage over the 3200M.
Speed
Knights Order should take up the running with Twilight Payment and Delphi tucking in behind him.
Grand Promenade will come across from the outside draw and try to find some cover.
Melbourne Cup Tips
Incentivise
Tralee Rose
Floating Artist
Spanish Mission
Best roughie: Grand Promenade
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13/10/21 David Gately tips & early predictions for the Melbourne Cup
Date
November 2
Distance
3200m
Track
Flemington
Class
Handicap
2020 winner
Twilight Payment ($26)
Our look at David Gately's early tips for the Spring Carnival concludes with Australia's most famous race: the Melbourne Cup.
The famous two-mile handicap on the hallowed turf of Flemington is the pinnacle of the carnival. For punters, there's always plenty of value up for grabs in the Cup, especially in the futures markets.
With that in mind, let's see what David Gately says about the race...
Melbourne Cup tips
REALM OF FLOWERS
Good thing licked in the Sydney Cup for mine then total dominance at Flemington in the Andrew Ramsden.
She can sustain real speed at the end of marathon trips and will not be harshly weighted.
DAWN PATROL
Lightly-raced Galileo in the right stable to win this race. Just missed in G3 in his last overseas start with True Self (won Queen Elizabeth) behind him in third.
Good building runs in Australia and looks set for the race.
INCENTIVISE
No reason to say he won’t run 3200m given sustained speed/excellence on the clock at end of 2400-2500m.
But the distance is an unknown, and he will also have a weight penalty if he wins the Caulfield Cup.
PONDUS
Good second to True Self in the Queen Elizabeth and has had the preparation over here. Also, has been in great form back home since then.
Like Dawn Patrol, from the key Hickmott/Williams stable.
Melbourne Cup odds for the all-in market
Runner
Win $
Incentivise
$5
Spanish Mission
$8
Twilight Payment
$11
Away He Goes
$15
Explosive Jack
$15
Grand Promenade
$15
Verry Elleegant
$15
Realm Of Flowers
$17
Dawn Patrol
$26
Pondus
$26
Read more
Melbourne Cup Tips from leading tipsters 2020
Melbourne Cup tip from Rick Morris
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Melbourne Cup Tip Flemington Race 7 #13 Surprise Baby $9.50
Whilst there were a couple of hard luck stories in last year's Melbourne Cup, this crowd favourite was one who had to come from last and wide out on the home turn.
He produced a withering sprint to go down by under a length.
The Paul Presker trained gelding was charging home that day and he has drawn a much better in barrier 7 this year.
He has had the perfect preparation, having only two starts since that Melbourne Cup and he was getting home hard again second-up in the Turnbull Stakes.
That effort showed he is in tip top condition and it will be no surprise to see him produce the run of a lifetime.
Now with the services of last year's Cup winning jockey Craig Williams, expect him to settle a touch closer this time. When we're in the straight and horses are starting to drop off, watch for Williams to be steering his way through the field and coming home at a rate of knots.
His superior turn of foot and ability to run two miles are the main reasons I expect Surprise Baby to win the 2020 Melbourne Cup.
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Melbourne Cup tip from Jaycin Campbell
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Melbourne Cup Tip Flemington Race 7 #13 Surprise Baby $9.50
The baby returns and is back for revenge in the 2020 Melbourne Cup, after finishing fifth beaten 0.9 lengths last year.
On that occasion, he drew barrier 20 of 24 and was asked to round the entire field up. It was an almighty effort as he lengthened a stride down the outside in doing so, running the fastest last 200m of the race.
His preparation this year has been less hyped, but I believe he is going just as well and if not better.
I'm expecting a bold run in what is a strong Cup!
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Melbourne Cup tip from Ben Beare
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Melbourne Cup Tip Flemington Race 7 #21 Tiger Moth $7.00
The international with a light-weight fits the profile of recent successful Melbourne Cup runners.
The booking of Kerrin McEvoy suggests he's the best of the internationals and he'll be very hard to beat.
Lightly raced with only four career starts, but he's clearly a stayer with above average ability.
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Melbourne Cup tip Adrian Sciglitano
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Melbourne Cup Tip Flemington Race 7 #11 Prince of Arran $12.00
In what is an open race with multiple chances over the famous Flemington two miles, I’ll swing the way of the Charlie Fellowes trained eight-year-old Prince of Arran.
The now Australian regular lines up in his third Melbourne Cup, after going agonisingly close on both occasions when third behind Cross counter in 2018 before finishing runner-up to Vow And Declare last year.
He looks to have come to Australia in career best form, having run fourth in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) only beaten a narrow 1.95-lengths behind Verry Elleegant.
His run was full of merit with the gelding able to reel off the best closing sectionals from the 800m mark, including a rapid closing burst of 11.92. This confirms that he is going better than ever.
He arrives on Cup day at peak fitness, with an identical set up which has seen him in the finish in the past.
He is proven at the 3200m (9:1:2:2), loves Flemington (3:1:1:1) where he is yet to miss a placing and all his Australian form (7:2:2:2) rates well enough to win this year’s Melbourne Cup.
He has drawn perfectly in barrier 1 to do no work in the run and they have found premiership leading Jockey Jaime Kah to take the ride, in what looks a match made in heaven.
He has the correct lead up, brings exceptional form to this year’s Melbourne Cup and can’t do anything but run well.
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Best Bet from Kurt Burns
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Melbourne Cup Tip Flemington Race 7 #21 Tiger Moth $7.00
It's hard to go past the internationals in the big one, with little-to-no weight on their backs.
The booking of Kerrin McEvoy is a positive, as he's the best staying rider in Australia in my opinion.
He's drawn a sticky gate (23), but that just means we get a better price!
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Melbourne Cup tip Lewis Willoughby
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Lewis steered punters into September Run paying $4.30 at Flemington on Saturday!
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Melbourne Cup Tip Flemington Race 7 #11 Finche $20.00
Keen to be with Finche in the 2020 Melbourne Cup, a horse who hasn't had a lot of luck this preparation but continues to race very well.
He comes into the Cup this year fourth-up, most recently finishing fifth behind Verry Elleegant in the Caulfield Cup over 2400m.
He was yet again caught three wide without cover in that race, just as he has been in every single start so far this prep.
He managed to box on very gallantly to finish only 2.5 lengths off the winner, and the way he kept fighting back through the line indicates he is a horse who is giving his all and will be very competitive up in trip now.
Rock hard fit, the booking of James McDonald is a big push within itself.
From barrier 6, I expect him to finally be able to race with cover in a position just behind the speed.
He started as favourite in the Cup last year and was only beaten 1.4 lengths on the line, so you know he is proven at the distance and intensity of a Melbourne Cup tilt.
He definitely has the scope to turn the tables on a number of rivals, and I'm happy to play him each way.
My boxed first four numbers are 1/5/11/13/19/21
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Best Bet from Dean Watling
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Melbourne Cup Tip Flemington Race 7 #21 Tiger Moth $7.00
What an outstanding edition of the Melbourne Cup, which shapes to be a cracker.
Tiger Moth is the horse I'm keen to be with. Despite having a few things against him come Cup Day, he has an untapped ability which I can't resist.
He is looking to take out the Cup in only his fifth career start, bringing the phenomenal northern hemisphere three-year-old form line.
Recent Melbourne Cup champs Cross Counter (2018) and Rekindling (2017) came here with the same profile, which speaks volumes.
What I'm most impressed by is the horse's progression in his short career.
His run in the Irish Derby back in June was outstanding, where he showed a dynamic turn of foot carrying 58.5kg to run a bold second to Santiago. That galloper then went on to run 2.25 lengths off Stradivarius in the Goodwood over 3218m. That is the right form.
Tiger Moth then went to a new level in his next start, taking out a Group 3 over 2414m by 4 lengths, exploding away from his rivals.
He'll combine with three time Melbourne Cup winner Kerrin McEvoy, which is a huge plus.
He will need a perfect ride from barrier 23, but the key to this horse is his elite acceleration which will enable him to get out of any tricky situations.
My first 4 selections are Tiger Moth, Surprise Baby, Verry Elleegant, Prince Of Arran
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3/11/20 Melbourne Cup Lays of the Day
On Derby Day we potted Octane at the $2.80 short quote, when the horse was never sighted and saved the blushes of punters who follow this column.
For Cup Day, we have found another Flemington runner that looks well under the odds as he tackles the Flemington straight again and appears unsuited by the low draw.
At Randwick, a skinny priced three-year-old colt faces a tough task to reel in the leaders off an expected slow tempo.
Flemington Race 1 #1 Ingratiating $2.40
He will be short across all totes due to the Godolphin factor and being the first favourite of the day, hence is likely to be artificially compressed from a price angle.
The debut win here at Flemington was good, however he was soft in the market ($9 out to $12) and not expected to race that well which indicates he is no superstar.
On Derby Day, the inside section of the track appeared to be least preferred for straight racing with the last winner (Fiesta) coming down the outside.
If this pattern plays out again on Tuesday, this horse will be unsuited by the inside draw in gate 2.
I expect a significant market drift late and for a wave of money to arrive for Marine One. Lay.
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Randwick Race 1 #2 Kermanding $2.40
Looks a good colt, however surely the poison $2.40 must be avoided at his first try out to 1800m.
He won at Kembla last start when racing well back in the field, before charging late.
However, that was against a rubbish field in maiden grade and this is a big step-up in class.
He is likely to race back in the field as per his normal pattern and I expect them to crawl here, with an advantage for those sprinting off the front.
There is certainly enough against to be risking him at the skinny odds on this occasion. Avoid.
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Melbourne Cup tips 2020: A brutally honest assessment of your horse
You will read a lot of positive comments about every runner in the 2020 Melbourne Cup.
However, the reality is there are only a handful of horses that have a genuine chance of winning.
To cut through the noise and get to the gist, I've rated each runner and provided you with my brutally honest assessment of your horse's chances in the big race.
1. ANTHONY VAN DYCK (3)
Was enormous in the Caulfield Cup, where he drew barrier 17 and made a long-sustained run with 58.5kg to finish within 0.2 lengths of Verry Elleegant.
He meets her 0.5kg better at the weights for this, but more importantly has drawn perfectly in barrier 3.
Hugh Bowman will be better for the one ride on him, but he'll need to be at his best given this is the first time he's raced over the two-miles.
He's the best horse in the race but under handicap conditions and with plenty of class lining up, I can't see him saluting.
#WeightStopsTrains
Bookies Price: $8
Rated Price: $17
2. AVILIUS (10)
Hasn't won since the George Main Stakes over 1600m in September of 2019.
His only attempt at the race came in 2018, which was a complete pen job.
I don't think he runs a strong 3200m and would be shocked if he finished in the top 10.
#MayNeedADefibrillator
Bookies Price: $51
Rated Price: $101
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3. VOW AND DECLARE (4)
The defending champ who has been going like a busted since last year's victory.
Has lost the services of Craig Williams, then Damien Oliver jumped off which leaves Jamie Mott with the ride.
He's proven over the 3200m, loves Flemington but will be forced to lug an extra 5kg this year.
#NeedsAMiracle
Bookies Price: $51
Rated Price: $101
4. MASTER OF REALITY (11)
Was relegated to 4th in last year's Melbourne Cup after a Frankie Dettori horror show.
He was flogged by Twilight Payment (8 lengths) three runs back, but has bounced back with some decent runs since.
I doubt he gets a picnic in front this year and I can't see him running top 10.
#RealityCheck
Bookies Price: $26
Rated Price: $51
5. SIR DRAGONET (14)
Was so impressive winning the Cox Plate.
Glen Boss is looking for his fourth Melbourne Cup victory and knows what it takes to get the job done on the first Tuesday in November.
Appears to love rain affected going and won't get that this time around.
#Bossy
Bookies Price: $9
Rated Price: $15
6. TWILIGHT PAYMENT (12)
Led them up in last year's Cup, but lacked the turn of foot when needed.
Going as well as ever but I just can't see him improving on last year's effort.
This looks a more competitive field, so I'll let him go through to the keeper.
#TooSlow
Bookies Price: $34
Rated Price: $51
7. VERRY ELLEEGANT (15)
Was very impressive in the Caulfield Cup and rises to the 3200m for the first time.
That came on a favourable Soft 6 surface, which she won't get on Tuesday.
Her record of six Group 1 wins is phenomenal but she looks vulnerable over the two-miles for the first-time, especially on a dry track.
#PrayForRain
Bookies Price: $14
Rated Price: $21
8. MUSTAJEER (2)
Is running up to his best, but he looks seriously outclassed.
Ran 23 of 24 in a weaker edition of the Cup last year and is once again making up the numbers.
#AmbulanceChaser
Bookies Price $101
Rated Price $201
9. STRATUM ALBION (9)
Willie Mullins brings this eight-year-old plodder down under.
He'll run out the 3200m and has no issue on a dry track.
The problem is, he looks as 'slow as a wet week'.
#GoHomeWillie
Bookies Price: $46
Rated Price: $101
10. DASHING WILLOUGHBY(19)
Ran last in the Caulfield Cup and would need to improve out of sight to run top 10.
He'll give a great sight for 2400m, before popping like a balloon.
#LacksSaidDash
Bookies Price: $101
Rated Price: $101
11. FINCHE (6)
Now at his third Melbourne Cup and hasn't finished any better than fourth in the great race.
The long-term booking of James McDonald suggests Chris Waller has him set to jump out of the ground.
Can take a forward position and will have no issues with a dry track. Top 5.
#Peaking
Bookies Price: $18
Rated Price $18
12. PRINCE OF ARRAN (1)
Put in an eye-catching run in the Caulfield Cup, flashing home from back in the field.
She looked the winner at the 50m mark last year and loves the Flemington two-miles.
The in-form Jamie Kah takes the ride and can get the best out of this horse.
Huge chance!
#WalkerOff
Bookies Price: $12
Rated Price: $10
13. SURPRISE BABY (7)
This has been his target since running an unlucky fifth last year.
With any luck, there will be some pace put into the race and he can use his turn of foot to fight out the finish.
Barrier 7 is perfect and so is the booking of Craig Williams.
Best of the Aussies!
#NoSurprisesHere
Bookies Price: $9
Rated Price: $9
14. KING OF LEOGRANCE (18)
Ran well in the Geelong Cup, finishing third behind Steel Prince and beating Ashrun home.
Drops 4.5kg from that run and is a winner over 3200m. Will relish the dry track and is a genuine top 10 chance.
Barrier 18 is less than ideal and he'll need the speed on to run home well.
#BGrader
Bookies Price: $51
Rated Price: $41
15.RUSSIAN CAMELOT (16)
Was game in a gruelling Cox Plate and ticked plenty of boxes.
The booking gun jockey Damien Oliver suggests the stable are confident he'll handle the rise to 3200m.
My concern is the rock-hard surface, given he looks more effective on a rain affected deck.
#LeaveTheSprinklersOn
Bookies Price: $13
Rated Price: $15
16. STEEL PRINCE (21)
The winner of the Geelong Cup, who ran 9th in the Cup last year.
Barrier 21 suggests he'll be ridden from the rear and if that's the case, I doubt he can match it with the A-Grader's.
#NeedsToLift
Bookies Price: $41
Rated Price: $61
17. THE CHOSEN ONE (5)
Was given no chance from the back off a slow speed in last year's Melbourne Cup and can improve.
He's since put in a huge run in the Caulfield Cup, finishing 3rd behind Verry Elleegant.
He's a genuine top 10 chance, but won't be winning.
#Next
Bookies Price: $41
Rated Price: $41
18. ASHRUN (24)
Needed the run in the Geelong Cup and was then ultra-impressive in the Hotham on Saturday.
Reports are that he's recovered well from the run. He drops 8kg for this and is reaching peak fitness.
If the pace is on, he has the ability to round most of these up in the straight.
#SneakyHope
Bookies Price: $23
Rated Price: $12
19. WARNING (8)
The winner of last year's Victoria Derby, who hasn't saluted since.
He's drawn perfectly in barrier 8 for this, but just lacks the class of his rivals.
#WarningCan'tWin
Bookies Price: $51
Rated Price: $51
20. ETAH JAMES (22)
Couldn't get close to Miami Bound in the Moonee Valley Cup, losing out by 4 lengths.
Her best effort isn't likely to see her run top 20.
#Dud
Bookies Price: $201
Rated Price: $201
21. TIGER MOTH (23)
Has all the marks of a Melbourne Cup winner. Strong European staying form, carries only 52.5kg and has an elite trainer.
The booking of Australia's best big-race jockey Kerrin McEvoy is a huge push that the horse is top-class.
The barrier draw stinks, but if anyone can overcome it, McEvoy can.
The horse dead-set picks himself!
#WinnerWinner
Bookies Price: $8
Rated Price: $7
22. OCEANEX (17)
Was towelled up by Miami Bound in the Moonee Valley Cup and just isn't up to these.
This is his first run over 3200m and from what we've seen this prep, he's making up the numbers.
#GetInTheSea
Bookies Price $81
Rated Price: $101
23. MIAMI BOUND (13)
Produced a big win last week in really good time.
Barrier 13 is ideal and I think she can sit more forward in the run and be poised to strike.
She was dominant in the VRC Oaks at this track last year and while this is a big step up, it wouldn't surprise to see her run a career peak.
With a soft run in transit, I can see her running top 5.
#AussieAussieAussie
Bookies Price: $41
Rated Price $15
24. PERSAN (20)
Impressed in the Bart Cummings and loves the Flemington track.
The draw is a dead-set disaster, but I think they'll push the button and send him forward.
Unproven over the 3200m and looks a few levels below the best.
#DoubtIt
Bookies Price: $41
Rated Price: $61
Melbourne Cup Tips
1st Tiger Moth
2nd Suprise Baby
3rd Prince Of Arran
4th Miami Bound
Every punter and tipster from Australia's racing media who posts Melbourne Cup tips appears on our dedicated page ranked by their profit.Read more
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Deane Lester found three winners for punters on Victoria Derby Day. Check Deane's expert comments below on the winners. If you want to get set for Melbourne Cup Day to receive Deane's staking plan fo.....READ MORE
02/11/21 Horse racing tips on Cup Day from GTO staff Nov 02, 2021
We asked our staff to give us their Melbourne Cup tips for the big day.
There are varying levels of punting experience and success amongst those who had decided on their Cup horse at the time t.....READ MORE
Melbourne Cup tips 2021: A brutally honest assessment of your horse Nov 01, 2021
You will read a lot of positive comments about every runner in the 2021 Melbourne Cup, but the reality is there are only a handful of horses that have a genuine chance of winning.
To cut through th.....READ MORE
02/11/21 Melbourne Cup Tips Oct 31, 2021
1. TWILIGHT PAYMENT (GB)
9 year old bay gelding (6-5-2013) Sire: Teofilo (IRE) Dam: Dream On Buddy (IRE)
Trainer: Joseph O'Brien (Co. Kilkenny (IRE)) Jockey: Jye McNeil 58kg Barrier:2
.....READ MORE
13/10/21 David Gately tips & early predictions for the Melbourne Cup Oct 13, 2021
Date
November 2
Distance
3200m
Track
Flemington
Class
Handicap
2020 winner
Twilight Payment ($26)
.....READ MORE
Exclusive Melbourne Cup Packages
David Gately
Deane Lester
Mark Hunter
Mick Gannon
Melbourne Cup Tips
All punters and Australian racing media tip packages on this page contain tips in the Melbourne Cup.
Profits showing for the punters and racing experts are the best profit statistics as recorded from tips placed on this site.
If you prefer FREE TIPS scroll down until you see racing experts from Australia's racing media and click the FREE TIPS button to view their selections.
02/11/21 Melbourne Cup Tips
1. TWILIGHT PAYMENT (GB)
9 year old bay gelding (6-5-2013) Sire: Teofilo (IRE) Dam: Dream On Buddy (IRE)
Trainer: Joseph O'Brien (Co. Kilkenny (IRE)) Jockey: Jye McNeil 58kg Barrier:2
Record: 36:9-11-8 Prizemoney:$5,682,805 1st Up: 9:0-5-1 2nd Up: 8:1-1-4
Rick says...
Was enormous last year when winning the Cup from the front.
Is in just as good as form this time, however he will be forced to carry an extra 2.5kgs up to 58kgs.
It is unlikely we’ll see a 9 year old carrying top weight winning, however I won’t write him off.
2. INCENTIVISE
5 year old bay gelding (22-10-2016) Sire: Shamus Award Dam: Miss Argyle (Iglesia)
Trainer: Peter G Moody (Pakenham OC) Jockey: Brett Prebble 57kg Barrier:16
Record: 12:9-0-0 Prizemoney:$4,643,300 1st Up: 3:1-0-0 2nd Up: 2:1-0-0
Rick says...
Star stayer, who has measured up to each challenge he has been presented with.
He couldn’t have been more impressive in the Caulfield Cup, making it a true staying test in the soft conditions.
Although he is carrying a big weight, this former Toowoomba trained runner appears bullet proof.
I believe he will space them to win comfortably.
3. SPANISH MISSION (USA)
6 year old bay horse (6-4-2016) Sire: Noble Mission (GB) Dam: Limonar (IRE) (Street Cry (IRE)
Trainer: Andrew Balding (Kingsclere (GB)) Jockey: Craig Williams 57kg Barrier:14
Record: 18:6-4-3 Prizemoney:$2,092,657 1st Up: 7:0-4-1 2nd Up: 4:2-0-0
Rick says...
The spruik around this import is based around his close second to Stradivarius.
He had every chance to go past the champion stayer, who wasn’t quite as good as his form 12 months earlier.
History suggests 57kgs first up isn’t the right profile for a UK based galloper.
Distance suits and is in my top 4 based on his overall staying ability.
4. VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ)
6 year old brown mare (12-10-2015) Sire: Zed (NZ) Dam: Opulence (NZ) (Danroad)
Trainer: Chris Waller (Flemington) Jockey: James McDonald 57kg Barrier:19
Record: 33:14-7-3 Prizemoney:$9,690,744 1st Up: 7:1-3-1 2nd Up: 7:4-1-0
Rick says...
Nine-time Group 1 winner who was pretty good in the Cox Plate last start, which is as good a lead up race as you can get.
Up 1.5kgs in weight from last year’s Melbourne Cup. She was back near the rear and was one of the fastest closers, though she was entitle to given she had little work to do.
Expect her to give a big sight once again.
5. EXPLOSIVE JACK (NZ)
4 year old bay horse (9-11-2017) Sire: Jakkalberry (IRE) Dam: Extra Explosive (NZ) (Ekraar (USA) Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace (Caulfield) Jockey: John Allen 54kg Barrier:4
Record: 12:5-1-2 Prizemoney:$1,814,730 1st Up: 2:1-0-0 2nd Up: 2:0-0-0 Rick says...
Rick says...
Triple Derby winner who ran a solid fifth in the Turnbull stakes.
Jack’s run in the Caulfield Cup (17th) was too bad to be true, so I am prepared to forgive that effort.
He’s got an inform jockey in John Allen and the Maher/Eustace stable is flying at the moment.
They’re racing for the top 10.
6. THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ)
6 year old bay horse (30-9-2015) Sire: Savabeel Dam: The Glitzy One (Flying Spur)
Trainer: Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman (Cambridge (NZ)) Jockey: Damian Lane 54kg Barrier:5
Record: 35:6-5-3 Prizemoney:$1,899,409 1st Up: 7:2-2-2 2nd Up: 7:1-1-0
Rick says...
Another who didn’t fire a shot in the Caulfield Cup.
He ran a career best, in last year’s Melbourne Cup, finishing fourth with 53.5kgs.
He has only 54kgs this year and could be one for the exotics again as he was ticking along OK before last start’s failure.
Watch Michael Gannon and Dean Watling's early bets for Melbourne Cup week!
7. DELPHI (IRE)
5 year old bay horse (31-1-2017) Sire: Galileo (IRE) Dam: Bye Bye Birdie (IRE) (Oasis Dream (GB)
Trainer: Anthony & Sam Freedman (Mornington) Jockey: Damien Oliver 53.5kg Barrier:3
Record: 10:5-1-0 Prizemoney:$360,841 1st Up: 4:1-0-0 2nd Up: 2:1-1-0
Rick says...
Won the Group 2 Herbert Power over 2400M, then did a bit of work to find the lead from the wide gate in the Caulfield Cup.
Didn’t finish off so if ridden with a sit on this occasion, I’m prepared to put him into the multiples at the long price.
8. OCEAN BILLY (NZ)
6 year old chestnut gelding (5-10-2015) Sire: Ocean Park (NZ) Dam: Cool Storm (NZ)
Trainer: Chris Waller (Flemington) Jockey: Damien Thornton 53.5kg Barrier:13
Record: 25:7-1-1 Prizemoney:$547,720 1st Up: 5:0-1-0 2nd Up: 5:3-0-0
Rick says...
Auckland Cup winner over this distance though hasn’t really troubled the scorers over here.
Can’t see him getting near these.
9. SELINO (GB)
6 year old bay gelding (5-5-2016) Sire: Champs Elysees (GB) Dam: Air Kiss (GB)
Trainer: Chris Waller (Flemington) Jockey: Ron Stewart 53.5kg Barrier:24
Record: 20:3-5-2 Prizemoney:$1,481,470 1st Up: 4:0-2-0 2nd Up: 4:0-1-0
Rick says...
Sydney Cup winner over this trip, who’s best run this prep was fourth in the Bart Cummings over 2520M.
He will stay the distance, though won’t have the necessary acceleration to put him in the finish.
10. JOHNNY GET ANGRY (NZ)
4 year old bay gelding (9-11-2017) Sire: Tavistock (NZ) Dam: Luminova (NZ)
Trainer: Denis Pagan (Flemington) Jockey: Lachlan King 53kg (a) Barrier:22
Record: 11:1-1-2 Prizemoney:$1,268,675 1st Up: 2:0-0-0 2nd Up: 2:0-0-1
Rick says...
Was a Cinderella story last Spring carnival, winning the Victoria Derby for former AFL dual premiership coach Denis Pagan.
He’s receiving publicity for the wrong reasons this year, with Glen Boss stating Johnny shouldn’t be in the field because of his sub-standard performances.
I’ve felt all along he was being trained for one race only this prep, and that’s The Cup.
Expect a much better run this time.
11. KNIGHTS ORDER (IRE)
7 year old bay or brown gelding (5-5-2015) Sire: So You Think (NZ) Dam: Lamanka Lass (USA)
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott (Flemington) Jockey: Daniel Stackhouse 53kg Barrier:9
Record: 21:7-0-2 Prizemoney:$473,501 1st Up: 5:0-0-0 2nd Up: 5:2-0-0
Rick says...
Led all the way to win this year’s Brisbane Cup and should pilot the field again here.
Disappointing in the Geelong Cup and Hotham Handicap at his last couple, so I can’t have him.
12. PERSAN
5 year old brown gelding (22-9-2016) Sire: Pierro Dam: Ofcourseican (Mossman)
Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace (Caulfield) Jockey: Luke Currie 53kg Barrier:11
Record: 27:7-5-3 Prizemoney:$1,404,721 1st Up: 5:1-0-2 2nd Up: 5:1-1-0
Rick says...
Is a consistent performer at any level and was only 2.45 lengths fifth, in last years Melbourne Cup, where he carried 51kgs.
Goes up 2kgsthis year but is a top four hope.
13. CARIF
6 year old brown gelding (13-9-2015) Sire: So You Think (NZ) Dam: Norzita (NZ)
Trainer: Peter & Paul Snowden (Flemington) Jockey: Blaike McDougall 52.5kg Barrier: 8
Record: 37:3-8-1 Prizemoney: $730,285 1st Up: 7:0-0-0 2nd Up: 7:1-0-1
Rick says...
Performs better over these longer trips though hasn’t got what’s required to be competitive here.
14. MASTER OF WINE (GER)
7 year old bay gelding (13-4-2015) Sire: Maxios (GB) Dam: Magma (GER)
Trainer: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes (Flemington) Jockey: Fred Kersley 52.5kg Barrier:6
Record: 28:5-5-4 Prizemoney:$900,309 1st Up: 8:2-2-1 2nd Up: 8:1-1-1
Rick says...
Had big wraps on him last year, though hasn’t reached the heights that were expected of him.
Is a distance query for mine.
15. PONDUS (GB)
6 year old bay gelding (8-2-2016) Sire: Sea The Moon (GER) Dam: Diablerette (GB)
Trainer: Robert Hickmont (Mount Macedon) Jockey: Rachel King 52.5kg Barrier:1
Record: 19:3-7-1 Prizemoney:$336,109 1st Up: 5:0-2-0 2nd Up: 5:2-2-0
Rick says..
Hasn’t produced a win in Australia in 4 attempts.
From the Lloyd Williams Mount Macedon stable who know what it takes to win a cup.
Not this year.
16. GRAND PROMENADE (GB)
6 year old bay gelding (1-3-2016) Sire: Champs Elysees (GB) Dam: Zacchera (GB)
Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace (Caulfield) Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy 52kg Barrier:21
Record: 19:8-4-2 Prizemoney:$1,009,800 1st Up: 3:0-1-1 2nd Up: 3:0-1-1
Rick says..
This bloke doesn’t put a foot wrong!
His jockey Kerrin McEvoy has won three Melbourne Cups.
He ran second in the Andrew Ramsden here over 2800M carrying 58.5 kgs and gets in here with 52 kilos.
If there was to be an upset, he could be the one.
17. MIAMI BOUND (NZ)
5 year old bay mare (7-11-2016) Sire: Reliable Man (GB) Dam: Arapaho Miss
Trainer: Danny O'Brien (Flemington) Jockey: Patrick Moloney 52kg Barrier:17
Record: 26:5-0-5 Prizemoney:$1,672,200 1st Up: 6:1-0-1 2nd Up: 5:1-0-0
Rick says..
Has placed a couple of times over the staying trips though is not going well enough.
18. PORT GUILLAUME (FR)
5 year old bay gelding (29-3-2017) Sire: Le Havre (IRE) Dam: Keira (FR)
Trainer: Ben & JD Hayes (Flemington) Jockey: Harry Coffey 52kg Barrier:23
Record: 10:4-0-0 Prizemoney:$308,688 1st Up: 3:2-0-0 2nd Up: 3:1-0-0
Rick says..
Won the Group 2 Prix Hocquart over 2500M last year.
Not going well enough.
19. SHE’S IDEEL
6 year old bay mare (5-10-2015) Sire: Dundeel (NZ) Dam: Ana’s Mail
Trainer: Bjorn Baker (Warwick Farm) Jockey: Craig Newitt 52kg Barrier:20
Record: 25:6-6-5 Prizemoney:$1,101,075 1st Up: 5:0-2-2 2nd Up: 5:0-2-1 Rick says..
Rick says..
Finished off OK in the Caulfield Cup.
Unsure about the 3200M.
20. FUTURE SCORE (IRE)
5 year old bay gelding (29-3-2017) Sire: Le Havre (IRE) Dam: Keira (FR)
Trainer: Ben & JD Hayes (Flemington) Jockey: Harry Coffey 52kg Barrier:23
Record: 10:4-0-0 Prizemoney:$308,688 1st Up: 3:2-0-0 2nd Up: 3:1-0-0
Rick says..
The listed Cranbourne Cup is his biggest success here so he won’t be troubling this field.
21. TRALEE ROSE (NZ)
5 year old bay mare (13-10-2016) Sire: Tavistock (NZ) Dam: Star of Tralee
Trainer: Symon Wilde (Warrnambool) Jockey: Dean Holland 51kg Barrier:12
Record: 15:6-4-2 Prizemoney:$744,725 1st Up: 3:1-0-1 2nd Up: 3:1-1-1 Rick says..
Rick says..
Loved the way she attacked the line in the Geelong Cup.
She has Zabeel in her bloodlines which suggests she will get the trip even though her Adelaide Cup run was below par.
I things she can push for the exacta position and run the race of a lifetime.
22. FLOATING ARTIST (GB)
6 year old bay or brown gelding (29-2-2016) Sire: Nathaniel (IRE) Dam: Miss Kenton (IRE)
Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace (Caulfield) Jockey: Teodore Nugent 50kg (a) Barrier:10
Record: 16:5-2-1 Prizemoney:$479,018 1st Up: 6:2-0-0 2nd Up: 5:1-1-0
Rick says..
He ran a bottler in the Moonee Valley Cup, a race that has produced Melbourne Cup winners.
He is one I took in early doubles, so I will be silently cheering.
Definite lightweight hope.
23. GREAT HOUSE (IRE)
5 year old bay gelding (28-12-2016) Sire: Galileo (IRE) Dam: Anja (IRE)
Trainer: Chris Waller (Flemington) Jockey: Michael Dee 50kg Barrier:7
Record: 15:5-2-3 Prizemoney:$694,290 1st Up: 3:1-1-1 2nd Up: 3:2-0-1
Rick says..
Won the Hotham Handicap on Saturday however it was an inferior edition this year.
Top 10 chance given the low weight.
24. SIR LUCAN (IRE)
4 year old bay horse (24-2-2018) Sire: Camelot (GB) Dam: Sparrow (IRE)
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott (Flemington) Jockey: Glen Boss 50kg Barrier:18
Record: 8:2-1-0 Prizemoney:$152,926 1st Up: 4:0-1-0 2nd Up: 3:2-0-0
Rick says..
Northern Hemisphere youngster who is with the Waterhouse/ Bott stable.
An unknown at this level so may be one to throw into your exotics.
History says
Horses need to be able to stay the journey and have a turn of foot over the final 300 metres. Those who have won at their last start have a great winning record in the Cup
Lightweights have an advantage over the 3200M.
Speed
Knights Order should take up the running with Twilight Payment and Delphi tucking in behind him.
Grand Promenade will come across from the outside draw and try to find some cover.
Melbourne Cup Tips
Incentivise
Tralee Rose
Floating Artist
Spanish Mission
Best roughie: Grand Promenade
Read more
13/10/21 David Gately tips & early predictions for the Melbourne Cup
Date
November 2
Distance
3200m
Track
Flemington
Class
Handicap
2020 winner
Twilight Payment ($26)
Our look at David Gately's early tips for the Spring Carnival concludes with Australia's most famous race: the Melbourne Cup.
The famous two-mile handicap on the hallowed turf of Flemington is the pinnacle of the carnival. For punters, there's always plenty of value up for grabs in the Cup, especially in the futures markets.
With that in mind, let's see what David Gately says about the race...
Melbourne Cup tips
REALM OF FLOWERS
Good thing licked in the Sydney Cup for mine then total dominance at Flemington in the Andrew Ramsden.
She can sustain real speed at the end of marathon trips and will not be harshly weighted.
DAWN PATROL
Lightly-raced Galileo in the right stable to win this race. Just missed in G3 in his last overseas start with True Self (won Queen Elizabeth) behind him in third.
Good building runs in Australia and looks set for the race.
INCENTIVISE
No reason to say he won’t run 3200m given sustained speed/excellence on the clock at end of 2400-2500m.
But the distance is an unknown, and he will also have a weight penalty if he wins the Caulfield Cup.
PONDUS
Good second to True Self in the Queen Elizabeth and has had the preparation over here. Also, has been in great form back home since then.
Like Dawn Patrol, from the key Hickmott/Williams stable.
Melbourne Cup odds for the all-in market
Runner
Win $
Incentivise
$5
Spanish Mission
$8
Twilight Payment
$11
Away He Goes
$15
Explosive Jack
$15
Grand Promenade
$15
Verry Elleegant
$15
Realm Of Flowers
$17
Dawn Patrol
$26
Pondus
$26
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Melbourne Cup Tips from leading tipsters 2020
Melbourne Cup tip from Rick Morris
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Melbourne Cup Tip Flemington Race 7 #13 Surprise Baby $9.50
Whilst there were a couple of hard luck stories in last year's Melbourne Cup, this crowd favourite was one who had to come from last and wide out on the home turn.
He produced a withering sprint to go down by under a length.
The Paul Presker trained gelding was charging home that day and he has drawn a much better in barrier 7 this year.
He has had the perfect preparation, having only two starts since that Melbourne Cup and he was getting home hard again second-up in the Turnbull Stakes.
That effort showed he is in tip top condition and it will be no surprise to see him produce the run of a lifetime.
Now with the services of last year's Cup winning jockey Craig Williams, expect him to settle a touch closer this time. When we're in the straight and horses are starting to drop off, watch for Williams to be steering his way through the field and coming home at a rate of knots.
His superior turn of foot and ability to run two miles are the main reasons I expect Surprise Baby to win the 2020 Melbourne Cup.
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Melbourne Cup tip from Jaycin Campbell
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Melbourne Cup Tip Flemington Race 7 #13 Surprise Baby $9.50
The baby returns and is back for revenge in the 2020 Melbourne Cup, after finishing fifth beaten 0.9 lengths last year.
On that occasion, he drew barrier 20 of 24 and was asked to round the entire field up. It was an almighty effort as he lengthened a stride down the outside in doing so, running the fastest last 200m of the race.
His preparation this year has been less hyped, but I believe he is going just as well and if not better.
I'm expecting a bold run in what is a strong Cup!
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Melbourne Cup tip from Ben Beare
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Melbourne Cup Tip Flemington Race 7 #21 Tiger Moth $7.00
The international with a light-weight fits the profile of recent successful Melbourne Cup runners.
The booking of Kerrin McEvoy suggests he's the best of the internationals and he'll be very hard to beat.
Lightly raced with only four career starts, but he's clearly a stayer with above average ability.
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Melbourne Cup tip Adrian Sciglitano
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Melbourne Cup Tip Flemington Race 7 #11 Prince of Arran $12.00
In what is an open race with multiple chances over the famous Flemington two miles, I’ll swing the way of the Charlie Fellowes trained eight-year-old Prince of Arran.
The now Australian regular lines up in his third Melbourne Cup, after going agonisingly close on both occasions when third behind Cross counter in 2018 before finishing runner-up to Vow And Declare last year.
He looks to have come to Australia in career best form, having run fourth in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) only beaten a narrow 1.95-lengths behind Verry Elleegant.
His run was full of merit with the gelding able to reel off the best closing sectionals from the 800m mark, including a rapid closing burst of 11.92. This confirms that he is going better than ever.
He arrives on Cup day at peak fitness, with an identical set up which has seen him in the finish in the past.
He is proven at the 3200m (9:1:2:2), loves Flemington (3:1:1:1) where he is yet to miss a placing and all his Australian form (7:2:2:2) rates well enough to win this year’s Melbourne Cup.
He has drawn perfectly in barrier 1 to do no work in the run and they have found premiership leading Jockey Jaime Kah to take the ride, in what looks a match made in heaven.
He has the correct lead up, brings exceptional form to this year’s Melbourne Cup and can’t do anything but run well.
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Best Bet from Kurt Burns
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Melbourne Cup Tip Flemington Race 7 #21 Tiger Moth $7.00
It's hard to go past the internationals in the big one, with little-to-no weight on their backs.
The booking of Kerrin McEvoy is a positive, as he's the best staying rider in Australia in my opinion.
He's drawn a sticky gate (23), but that just means we get a better price!
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Melbourne Cup tip Lewis Willoughby
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Melbourne Cup Tip Flemington Race 7 #11 Finche $20.00
Keen to be with Finche in the 2020 Melbourne Cup, a horse who hasn't had a lot of luck this preparation but continues to race very well.
He comes into the Cup this year fourth-up, most recently finishing fifth behind Verry Elleegant in the Caulfield Cup over 2400m.
He was yet again caught three wide without cover in that race, just as he has been in every single start so far this prep.
He managed to box on very gallantly to finish only 2.5 lengths off the winner, and the way he kept fighting back through the line indicates he is a horse who is giving his all and will be very competitive up in trip now.
Rock hard fit, the booking of James McDonald is a big push within itself.
From barrier 6, I expect him to finally be able to race with cover in a position just behind the speed.
He started as favourite in the Cup last year and was only beaten 1.4 lengths on the line, so you know he is proven at the distance and intensity of a Melbourne Cup tilt.
He definitely has the scope to turn the tables on a number of rivals, and I'm happy to play him each way.
My boxed first four numbers are 1/5/11/13/19/21
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Best Bet from Dean Watling
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Melbourne Cup Tip Flemington Race 7 #21 Tiger Moth $7.00
What an outstanding edition of the Melbourne Cup, which shapes to be a cracker.
Tiger Moth is the horse I'm keen to be with. Despite having a few things against him come Cup Day, he has an untapped ability which I can't resist.
He is looking to take out the Cup in only his fifth career start, bringing the phenomenal northern hemisphere three-year-old form line.
Recent Melbourne Cup champs Cross Counter (2018) and Rekindling (2017) came here with the same profile, which speaks volumes.
What I'm most impressed by is the horse's progression in his short career.
His run in the Irish Derby back in June was outstanding, where he showed a dynamic turn of foot carrying 58.5kg to run a bold second to Santiago. That galloper then went on to run 2.25 lengths off Stradivarius in the Goodwood over 3218m. That is the right form.
Tiger Moth then went to a new level in his next start, taking out a Group 3 over 2414m by 4 lengths, exploding away from his rivals.
He'll combine with three time Melbourne Cup winner Kerrin McEvoy, which is a huge plus.
He will need a perfect ride from barrier 23, but the key to this horse is his elite acceleration which will enable him to get out of any tricky situations.
My first 4 selections are Tiger Moth, Surprise Baby, Verry Elleegant, Prince Of Arran
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3/11/20 Melbourne Cup Lays of the Day
On Derby Day we potted Octane at the $2.80 short quote, when the horse was never sighted and saved the blushes of punters who follow this column.
For Cup Day, we have found another Flemington runner that looks well under the odds as he tackles the Flemington straight again and appears unsuited by the low draw.
At Randwick, a skinny priced three-year-old colt faces a tough task to reel in the leaders off an expected slow tempo.
Flemington Race 1 #1 Ingratiating $2.40
He will be short across all totes due to the Godolphin factor and being the first favourite of the day, hence is likely to be artificially compressed from a price angle.
The debut win here at Flemington was good, however he was soft in the market ($9 out to $12) and not expected to race that well which indicates he is no superstar.
On Derby Day, the inside section of the track appeared to be least preferred for straight racing with the last winner (Fiesta) coming down the outside.
If this pattern plays out again on Tuesday, this horse will be unsuited by the inside draw in gate 2.
I expect a significant market drift late and for a wave of money to arrive for Marine One. Lay.
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Randwick Race 1 #2 Kermanding $2.40
Looks a good colt, however surely the poison $2.40 must be avoided at his first try out to 1800m.
He won at Kembla last start when racing well back in the field, before charging late.
However, that was against a rubbish field in maiden grade and this is a big step-up in class.
He is likely to race back in the field as per his normal pattern and I expect them to crawl here, with an advantage for those sprinting off the front.
There is certainly enough against to be risking him at the skinny odds on this occasion. Avoid.
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Melbourne Cup tips 2020: A brutally honest assessment of your horse
You will read a lot of positive comments about every runner in the 2020 Melbourne Cup.
However, the reality is there are only a handful of horses that have a genuine chance of winning.
To cut through the noise and get to the gist, I've rated each runner and provided you with my brutally honest assessment of your horse's chances in the big race.
1. ANTHONY VAN DYCK (3)
Was enormous in the Caulfield Cup, where he drew barrier 17 and made a long-sustained run with 58.5kg to finish within 0.2 lengths of Verry Elleegant.
He meets her 0.5kg better at the weights for this, but more importantly has drawn perfectly in barrier 3.
Hugh Bowman will be better for the one ride on him, but he'll need to be at his best given this is the first time he's raced over the two-miles.
He's the best horse in the race but under handicap conditions and with plenty of class lining up, I can't see him saluting.
#WeightStopsTrains
Bookies Price: $8
Rated Price: $17
2. AVILIUS (10)
Hasn't won since the George Main Stakes over 1600m in September of 2019.
His only attempt at the race came in 2018, which was a complete pen job.
I don't think he runs a strong 3200m and would be shocked if he finished in the top 10.
#MayNeedADefibrillator
Bookies Price: $51
Rated Price: $101
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3. VOW AND DECLARE (4)
The defending champ who has been going like a busted since last year's victory.
Has lost the services of Craig Williams, then Damien Oliver jumped off which leaves Jamie Mott with the ride.
He's proven over the 3200m, loves Flemington but will be forced to lug an extra 5kg this year.
#NeedsAMiracle
Bookies Price: $51
Rated Price: $101
4. MASTER OF REALITY (11)
Was relegated to 4th in last year's Melbourne Cup after a Frankie Dettori horror show.
He was flogged by Twilight Payment (8 lengths) three runs back, but has bounced back with some decent runs since.
I doubt he gets a picnic in front this year and I can't see him running top 10.
#RealityCheck
Bookies Price: $26
Rated Price: $51
5. SIR DRAGONET (14)
Was so impressive winning the Cox Plate.
Glen Boss is looking for his fourth Melbourne Cup victory and knows what it takes to get the job done on the first Tuesday in November.
Appears to love rain affected going and won't get that this time around.
#Bossy
Bookies Price: $9
Rated Price: $15
6. TWILIGHT PAYMENT (12)
Led them up in last year's Cup, but lacked the turn of foot when needed.
Going as well as ever but I just can't see him improving on last year's effort.
This looks a more competitive field, so I'll let him go through to the keeper.
#TooSlow
Bookies Price: $34
Rated Price: $51
7. VERRY ELLEEGANT (15)
Was very impressive in the Caulfield Cup and rises to the 3200m for the first time.
That came on a favourable Soft 6 surface, which she won't get on Tuesday.
Her record of six Group 1 wins is phenomenal but she looks vulnerable over the two-miles for the first-time, especially on a dry track.
#PrayForRain
Bookies Price: $14
Rated Price: $21
8. MUSTAJEER (2)
Is running up to his best, but he looks seriously outclassed.
Ran 23 of 24 in a weaker edition of the Cup last year and is once again making up the numbers.
#AmbulanceChaser
Bookies Price $101
Rated Price $201
9. STRATUM ALBION (9)
Willie Mullins brings this eight-year-old plodder down under.
He'll run out the 3200m and has no issue on a dry track.
The problem is, he looks as 'slow as a wet week'.
#GoHomeWillie
Bookies Price: $46
Rated Price: $101
10. DASHING WILLOUGHBY(19)
Ran last in the Caulfield Cup and would need to improve out of sight to run top 10.
He'll give a great sight for 2400m, before popping like a balloon.
#LacksSaidDash
Bookies Price: $101
Rated Price: $101
11. FINCHE (6)
Now at his third Melbourne Cup and hasn't finished any better than fourth in the great race.
The long-term booking of James McDonald suggests Chris Waller has him set to jump out of the ground.
Can take a forward position and will have no issues with a dry track. Top 5.
#Peaking
Bookies Price: $18
Rated Price $18
12. PRINCE OF ARRAN (1)
Put in an eye-catching run in the Caulfield Cup, flashing home from back in the field.
She looked the winner at the 50m mark last year and loves the Flemington two-miles.
The in-form Jamie Kah takes the ride and can get the best out of this horse.
Huge chance!
#WalkerOff
Bookies Price: $12
Rated Price: $10
13. SURPRISE BABY (7)
This has been his target since running an unlucky fifth last year.
With any luck, there will be some pace put into the race and he can use his turn of foot to fight out the finish.
Barrier 7 is perfect and so is the booking of Craig Williams.
Best of the Aussies!
#NoSurprisesHere
Bookies Price: $9
Rated Price: $9
14. KING OF LEOGRANCE (18)
Ran well in the Geelong Cup, finishing third behind Steel Prince and beating Ashrun home.
Drops 4.5kg from that run and is a winner over 3200m. Will relish the dry track and is a genuine top 10 chance.
Barrier 18 is less than ideal and he'll need the speed on to run home well.
#BGrader
Bookies Price: $51
Rated Price: $41
15.RUSSIAN CAMELOT (16)
Was game in a gruelling Cox Plate and ticked plenty of boxes.
The booking gun jockey Damien Oliver suggests the stable are confident he'll handle the rise to 3200m.
My concern is the rock-hard surface, given he looks more effective on a rain affected deck.
#LeaveTheSprinklersOn
Bookies Price: $13
Rated Price: $15
16. STEEL PRINCE (21)
The winner of the Geelong Cup, who ran 9th in the Cup last year.
Barrier 21 suggests he'll be ridden from the rear and if that's the case, I doubt he can match it with the A-Grader's.
#NeedsToLift
Bookies Price: $41
Rated Price: $61
17. THE CHOSEN ONE (5)
Was given no chance from the back off a slow speed in last year's Melbourne Cup and can improve.
He's since put in a huge run in the Caulfield Cup, finishing 3rd behind Verry Elleegant.
He's a genuine top 10 chance, but won't be winning.
#Next
Bookies Price: $41
Rated Price: $41
18. ASHRUN (24)
Needed the run in the Geelong Cup and was then ultra-impressive in the Hotham on Saturday.
Reports are that he's recovered well from the run. He drops 8kg for this and is reaching peak fitness.
If the pace is on, he has the ability to round most of these up in the straight.
#SneakyHope
Bookies Price: $23
Rated Price: $12
19. WARNING (8)
The winner of last year's Victoria Derby, who hasn't saluted since.
He's drawn perfectly in barrier 8 for this, but just lacks the class of his rivals.
#WarningCan'tWin
Bookies Price: $51
Rated Price: $51
20. ETAH JAMES (22)
Couldn't get close to Miami Bound in the Moonee Valley Cup, losing out by 4 lengths.
Her best effort isn't likely to see her run top 20.
#Dud
Bookies Price: $201
Rated Price: $201
21. TIGER MOTH (23)
Has all the marks of a Melbourne Cup winner. Strong European staying form, carries only 52.5kg and has an elite trainer.
The booking of Australia's best big-race jockey Kerrin McEvoy is a huge push that the horse is top-class.
The barrier draw stinks, but if anyone can overcome it, McEvoy can.
The horse dead-set picks himself!
#WinnerWinner
Bookies Price: $8
Rated Price: $7
22. OCEANEX (17)
Was towelled up by Miami Bound in the Moonee Valley Cup and just isn't up to these.
This is his first run over 3200m and from what we've seen this prep, he's making up the numbers.
#GetInTheSea
Bookies Price $81
Rated Price: $101
23. MIAMI BOUND (13)
Produced a big win last week in really good time.
Barrier 13 is ideal and I think she can sit more forward in the run and be poised to strike.
She was dominant in the VRC Oaks at this track last year and while this is a big step up, it wouldn't surprise to see her run a career peak.
With a soft run in transit, I can see her running top 5.
#AussieAussieAussie
Bookies Price: $41
Rated Price $15
24. PERSAN (20)
Impressed in the Bart Cummings and loves the Flemington track.
The draw is a dead-set disaster, but I think they'll push the button and send him forward.
Unproven over the 3200m and looks a few levels below the best.
#DoubtIt
Bookies Price: $41
Rated Price: $61
Melbourne Cup Tips
1st Tiger Moth
2nd Suprise Baby
3rd Prince Of Arran
4th Miami Bound
Every punter and tipster from Australia's racing media who posts Melbourne Cup tips appears on our dedicated page ranked by their profit.Read more
Melbourne Cup Tips
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We asked our staff to give us their Melbourne Cup tips for the big day. There are varying levels of punting experience and success amongst those who had decided on their Cup horse at the time t.....READ MORE
Melbourne Cup tips 2021: A brutally honest assessment of your horse Nov 01, 2021
You will read a lot of positive comments about every runner in the 2021 Melbourne Cup, but the reality is there are only a handful of horses that have a genuine chance of winning.
To cut through th.....READ MORE
02/11/21 Melbourne Cup Tips Oct 31, 2021
1. TWILIGHT PAYMENT (GB)
9 year old bay gelding (6-5-2013) Sire: Teofilo (IRE) Dam: Dream On Buddy (IRE)
Trainer: Joseph O'Brien (Co. Kilkenny (IRE)) Jockey: Jye McNeil 58kg Barrier:2
.....READ MORE
13/10/21 David Gately tips & early predictions for the Melbourne Cup Oct 13, 2021
Date
November 2
Distance
3200m
Track
Flemington
Class
Handicap
2020 winner
Twilight Payment ($26)
.....READ MORE
Exclusive Melbourne Cup Packages
David Gately
Deane Lester
Mark Hunter
Mick Gannon
Melbourne Cup Tips
All punters and Australian racing media tip packages on this page contain tips in the Melbourne Cup.
Profits showing for the punters and racing experts are the best profit statistics as recorded from tips placed on this site.
If you prefer FREE TIPS scroll down until you see racing experts from Australia's racing media and click the FREE TIPS button to view their selections.
02/11/21 Melbourne Cup Tips
1. TWILIGHT PAYMENT (GB)
9 year old bay gelding (6-5-2013) Sire: Teofilo (IRE) Dam: Dream On Buddy (IRE)
Trainer: Joseph O'Brien (Co. Kilkenny (IRE)) Jockey: Jye McNeil 58kg Barrier:2
Record: 36:9-11-8 Prizemoney:$5,682,805 1st Up: 9:0-5-1 2nd Up: 8:1-1-4
Rick says...
Was enormous last year when winning the Cup from the front.
Is in just as good as form this time, however he will be forced to carry an extra 2.5kgs up to 58kgs.
It is unlikely we’ll see a 9 year old carrying top weight winning, however I won’t write him off.
2. INCENTIVISE
5 year old bay gelding (22-10-2016) Sire: Shamus Award Dam: Miss Argyle (Iglesia)
Trainer: Peter G Moody (Pakenham OC) Jockey: Brett Prebble 57kg Barrier:16
Record: 12:9-0-0 Prizemoney:$4,643,300 1st Up: 3:1-0-0 2nd Up: 2:1-0-0
Rick says...
Star stayer, who has measured up to each challenge he has been presented with.
He couldn’t have been more impressive in the Caulfield Cup, making it a true staying test in the soft conditions.
Although he is carrying a big weight, this former Toowoomba trained runner appears bullet proof.
I believe he will space them to win comfortably.
3. SPANISH MISSION (USA)
6 year old bay horse (6-4-2016) Sire: Noble Mission (GB) Dam: Limonar (IRE) (Street Cry (IRE)
Trainer: Andrew Balding (Kingsclere (GB)) Jockey: Craig Williams 57kg Barrier:14
Record: 18:6-4-3 Prizemoney:$2,092,657 1st Up: 7:0-4-1 2nd Up: 4:2-0-0
Rick says...
The spruik around this import is based around his close second to Stradivarius.
He had every chance to go past the champion stayer, who wasn’t quite as good as his form 12 months earlier.
History suggests 57kgs first up isn’t the right profile for a UK based galloper.
Distance suits and is in my top 4 based on his overall staying ability.
4. VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ)
6 year old brown mare (12-10-2015) Sire: Zed (NZ) Dam: Opulence (NZ) (Danroad)
Trainer: Chris Waller (Flemington) Jockey: James McDonald 57kg Barrier:19
Record: 33:14-7-3 Prizemoney:$9,690,744 1st Up: 7:1-3-1 2nd Up: 7:4-1-0
Rick says...
Nine-time Group 1 winner who was pretty good in the Cox Plate last start, which is as good a lead up race as you can get.
Up 1.5kgs in weight from last year’s Melbourne Cup. She was back near the rear and was one of the fastest closers, though she was entitle to given she had little work to do.
Expect her to give a big sight once again.
5. EXPLOSIVE JACK (NZ)
4 year old bay horse (9-11-2017) Sire: Jakkalberry (IRE) Dam: Extra Explosive (NZ) (Ekraar (USA) Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace (Caulfield) Jockey: John Allen 54kg Barrier:4
Record: 12:5-1-2 Prizemoney:$1,814,730 1st Up: 2:1-0-0 2nd Up: 2:0-0-0 Rick says...
Rick says...
Triple Derby winner who ran a solid fifth in the Turnbull stakes.
Jack’s run in the Caulfield Cup (17th) was too bad to be true, so I am prepared to forgive that effort.
He’s got an inform jockey in John Allen and the Maher/Eustace stable is flying at the moment.
They’re racing for the top 10.
6. THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ)
6 year old bay horse (30-9-2015) Sire: Savabeel Dam: The Glitzy One (Flying Spur)
Trainer: Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman (Cambridge (NZ)) Jockey: Damian Lane 54kg Barrier:5
Record: 35:6-5-3 Prizemoney:$1,899,409 1st Up: 7:2-2-2 2nd Up: 7:1-1-0
Rick says...
Another who didn’t fire a shot in the Caulfield Cup.
He ran a career best, in last year’s Melbourne Cup, finishing fourth with 53.5kgs.
He has only 54kgs this year and could be one for the exotics again as he was ticking along OK before last start’s failure.
Watch Michael Gannon and Dean Watling's early bets for Melbourne Cup week!
7. DELPHI (IRE)
5 year old bay horse (31-1-2017) Sire: Galileo (IRE) Dam: Bye Bye Birdie (IRE) (Oasis Dream (GB)
Trainer: Anthony & Sam Freedman (Mornington) Jockey: Damien Oliver 53.5kg Barrier:3
Record: 10:5-1-0 Prizemoney:$360,841 1st Up: 4:1-0-0 2nd Up: 2:1-1-0
Rick says...
Won the Group 2 Herbert Power over 2400M, then did a bit of work to find the lead from the wide gate in the Caulfield Cup.
Didn’t finish off so if ridden with a sit on this occasion, I’m prepared to put him into the multiples at the long price.
8. OCEAN BILLY (NZ)
6 year old chestnut gelding (5-10-2015) Sire: Ocean Park (NZ) Dam: Cool Storm (NZ)
Trainer: Chris Waller (Flemington) Jockey: Damien Thornton 53.5kg Barrier:13
Record: 25:7-1-1 Prizemoney:$547,720 1st Up: 5:0-1-0 2nd Up: 5:3-0-0
Rick says...
Auckland Cup winner over this distance though hasn’t really troubled the scorers over here.
Can’t see him getting near these.
9. SELINO (GB)
6 year old bay gelding (5-5-2016) Sire: Champs Elysees (GB) Dam: Air Kiss (GB)
Trainer: Chris Waller (Flemington) Jockey: Ron Stewart 53.5kg Barrier:24
Record: 20:3-5-2 Prizemoney:$1,481,470 1st Up: 4:0-2-0 2nd Up: 4:0-1-0
Rick says...
Sydney Cup winner over this trip, who’s best run this prep was fourth in the Bart Cummings over 2520M.
He will stay the distance, though won’t have the necessary acceleration to put him in the finish.
10. JOHNNY GET ANGRY (NZ)
4 year old bay gelding (9-11-2017) Sire: Tavistock (NZ) Dam: Luminova (NZ)
Trainer: Denis Pagan (Flemington) Jockey: Lachlan King 53kg (a) Barrier:22
Record: 11:1-1-2 Prizemoney:$1,268,675 1st Up: 2:0-0-0 2nd Up: 2:0-0-1
Rick says...
Was a Cinderella story last Spring carnival, winning the Victoria Derby for former AFL dual premiership coach Denis Pagan.
He’s receiving publicity for the wrong reasons this year, with Glen Boss stating Johnny shouldn’t be in the field because of his sub-standard performances.
I’ve felt all along he was being trained for one race only this prep, and that’s The Cup.
Expect a much better run this time.
11. KNIGHTS ORDER (IRE)
7 year old bay or brown gelding (5-5-2015) Sire: So You Think (NZ) Dam: Lamanka Lass (USA)
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott (Flemington) Jockey: Daniel Stackhouse 53kg Barrier:9
Record: 21:7-0-2 Prizemoney:$473,501 1st Up: 5:0-0-0 2nd Up: 5:2-0-0
Rick says...
Led all the way to win this year’s Brisbane Cup and should pilot the field again here.
Disappointing in the Geelong Cup and Hotham Handicap at his last couple, so I can’t have him.
12. PERSAN
5 year old brown gelding (22-9-2016) Sire: Pierro Dam: Ofcourseican (Mossman)
Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace (Caulfield) Jockey: Luke Currie 53kg Barrier:11
Record: 27:7-5-3 Prizemoney:$1,404,721 1st Up: 5:1-0-2 2nd Up: 5:1-1-0
Rick says...
Is a consistent performer at any level and was only 2.45 lengths fifth, in last years Melbourne Cup, where he carried 51kgs.
Goes up 2kgsthis year but is a top four hope.
13. CARIF
6 year old brown gelding (13-9-2015) Sire: So You Think (NZ) Dam: Norzita (NZ)
Trainer: Peter & Paul Snowden (Flemington) Jockey: Blaike McDougall 52.5kg Barrier: 8
Record: 37:3-8-1 Prizemoney: $730,285 1st Up: 7:0-0-0 2nd Up: 7:1-0-1
Rick says...
Performs better over these longer trips though hasn’t got what’s required to be competitive here.
14. MASTER OF WINE (GER)
7 year old bay gelding (13-4-2015) Sire: Maxios (GB) Dam: Magma (GER)
Trainer: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes (Flemington) Jockey: Fred Kersley 52.5kg Barrier:6
Record: 28:5-5-4 Prizemoney:$900,309 1st Up: 8:2-2-1 2nd Up: 8:1-1-1
Rick says...
Had big wraps on him last year, though hasn’t reached the heights that were expected of him.
Is a distance query for mine.
15. PONDUS (GB)
6 year old bay gelding (8-2-2016) Sire: Sea The Moon (GER) Dam: Diablerette (GB)
Trainer: Robert Hickmont (Mount Macedon) Jockey: Rachel King 52.5kg Barrier:1
Record: 19:3-7-1 Prizemoney:$336,109 1st Up: 5:0-2-0 2nd Up: 5:2-2-0
Rick says..
Hasn’t produced a win in Australia in 4 attempts.
From the Lloyd Williams Mount Macedon stable who know what it takes to win a cup.
Not this year.
16. GRAND PROMENADE (GB)
6 year old bay gelding (1-3-2016) Sire: Champs Elysees (GB) Dam: Zacchera (GB)
Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace (Caulfield) Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy 52kg Barrier:21
Record: 19:8-4-2 Prizemoney:$1,009,800 1st Up: 3:0-1-1 2nd Up: 3:0-1-1
Rick says..
This bloke doesn’t put a foot wrong!
His jockey Kerrin McEvoy has won three Melbourne Cups.
He ran second in the Andrew Ramsden here over 2800M carrying 58.5 kgs and gets in here with 52 kilos.
If there was to be an upset, he could be the one.
17. MIAMI BOUND (NZ)
5 year old bay mare (7-11-2016) Sire: Reliable Man (GB) Dam: Arapaho Miss
Trainer: Danny O'Brien (Flemington) Jockey: Patrick Moloney 52kg Barrier:17
Record: 26:5-0-5 Prizemoney:$1,672,200 1st Up: 6:1-0-1 2nd Up: 5:1-0-0
Rick says..
Has placed a couple of times over the staying trips though is not going well enough.
18. PORT GUILLAUME (FR)
5 year old bay gelding (29-3-2017) Sire: Le Havre (IRE) Dam: Keira (FR)
Trainer: Ben & JD Hayes (Flemington) Jockey: Harry Coffey 52kg Barrier:23
Record: 10:4-0-0 Prizemoney:$308,688 1st Up: 3:2-0-0 2nd Up: 3:1-0-0
Rick says..
Won the Group 2 Prix Hocquart over 2500M last year.
Not going well enough.
19. SHE’S IDEEL
6 year old bay mare (5-10-2015) Sire: Dundeel (NZ) Dam: Ana’s Mail
Trainer: Bjorn Baker (Warwick Farm) Jockey: Craig Newitt 52kg Barrier:20
Record: 25:6-6-5 Prizemoney:$1,101,075 1st Up: 5:0-2-2 2nd Up: 5:0-2-1 Rick says..
Rick says..
Finished off OK in the Caulfield Cup.
Unsure about the 3200M.
20. FUTURE SCORE (IRE)
5 year old bay gelding (29-3-2017) Sire: Le Havre (IRE) Dam: Keira (FR)
Trainer: Ben & JD Hayes (Flemington) Jockey: Harry Coffey 52kg Barrier:23
Record: 10:4-0-0 Prizemoney:$308,688 1st Up: 3:2-0-0 2nd Up: 3:1-0-0
Rick says..
The listed Cranbourne Cup is his biggest success here so he won’t be troubling this field.
21. TRALEE ROSE (NZ)
5 year old bay mare (13-10-2016) Sire: Tavistock (NZ) Dam: Star of Tralee
Trainer: Symon Wilde (Warrnambool) Jockey: Dean Holland 51kg Barrier:12
Record: 15:6-4-2 Prizemoney:$744,725 1st Up: 3:1-0-1 2nd Up: 3:1-1-1 Rick says..
Rick says..
Loved the way she attacked the line in the Geelong Cup.
She has Zabeel in her bloodlines which suggests she will get the trip even though her Adelaide Cup run was below par.
I things she can push for the exacta position and run the race of a lifetime.
22. FLOATING ARTIST (GB)
6 year old bay or brown gelding (29-2-2016) Sire: Nathaniel (IRE) Dam: Miss Kenton (IRE)
Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace (Caulfield) Jockey: Teodore Nugent 50kg (a) Barrier:10
Record: 16:5-2-1 Prizemoney:$479,018 1st Up: 6:2-0-0 2nd Up: 5:1-1-0
Rick says..
He ran a bottler in the Moonee Valley Cup, a race that has produced Melbourne Cup winners.
He is one I took in early doubles, so I will be silently cheering.
Definite lightweight hope.
23. GREAT HOUSE (IRE)
5 year old bay gelding (28-12-2016) Sire: Galileo (IRE) Dam: Anja (IRE)
Trainer: Chris Waller (Flemington) Jockey: Michael Dee 50kg Barrier:7
Record: 15:5-2-3 Prizemoney:$694,290 1st Up: 3:1-1-1 2nd Up: 3:2-0-1
Rick says..
Won the Hotham Handicap on Saturday however it was an inferior edition this year.
Top 10 chance given the low weight.
24. SIR LUCAN (IRE)
4 year old bay horse (24-2-2018) Sire: Camelot (GB) Dam: Sparrow (IRE)
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott (Flemington) Jockey: Glen Boss 50kg Barrier:18
Record: 8:2-1-0 Prizemoney:$152,926 1st Up: 4:0-1-0 2nd Up: 3:2-0-0
Rick says..
Northern Hemisphere youngster who is with the Waterhouse/ Bott stable.
An unknown at this level so may be one to throw into your exotics.
History says
Horses need to be able to stay the journey and have a turn of foot over the final 300 metres. Those who have won at their last start have a great winning record in the Cup
Lightweights have an advantage over the 3200M.
Speed
Knights Order should take up the running with Twilight Payment and Delphi tucking in behind him.
Grand Promenade will come across from the outside draw and try to find some cover.
Melbourne Cup Tips
Incentivise
Tralee Rose
Floating Artist
Spanish Mission
Best roughie: Grand Promenade
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13/10/21 David Gately tips & early predictions for the Melbourne Cup
Date
November 2
Distance
3200m
Track
Flemington
Class
Handicap
2020 winner
Twilight Payment ($26)
Our look at David Gately's early tips for the Spring Carnival concludes with Australia's most famous race: the Melbourne Cup.
The famous two-mile handicap on the hallowed turf of Flemington is the pinnacle of the carnival. For punters, there's always plenty of value up for grabs in the Cup, especially in the futures markets.
With that in mind, let's see what David Gately says about the race...
Melbourne Cup tips
REALM OF FLOWERS
Good thing licked in the Sydney Cup for mine then total dominance at Flemington in the Andrew Ramsden.
She can sustain real speed at the end of marathon trips and will not be harshly weighted.
DAWN PATROL
Lightly-raced Galileo in the right stable to win this race. Just missed in G3 in his last overseas start with True Self (won Queen Elizabeth) behind him in third.
Good building runs in Australia and looks set for the race.
INCENTIVISE
No reason to say he won’t run 3200m given sustained speed/excellence on the clock at end of 2400-2500m.
But the distance is an unknown, and he will also have a weight penalty if he wins the Caulfield Cup.
PONDUS
Good second to True Self in the Queen Elizabeth and has had the preparation over here. Also, has been in great form back home since then.
Like Dawn Patrol, from the key Hickmott/Williams stable.
Melbourne Cup odds for the all-in market
Runner
Win $
Incentivise
$5
Spanish Mission
$8
Twilight Payment
$11
Away He Goes
$15
Explosive Jack
$15
Grand Promenade
$15
Verry Elleegant
$15
Realm Of Flowers
$17
Dawn Patrol
$26
Pondus
$26
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Melbourne Cup Tips from leading tipsters 2020
Melbourne Cup tip from Rick Morris
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Melbourne Cup Tip Flemington Race 7 #13 Surprise Baby $9.50
Whilst there were a couple of hard luck stories in last year's Melbourne Cup, this crowd favourite was one who had to come from last and wide out on the home turn.
He produced a withering sprint to go down by under a length.
The Paul Presker trained gelding was charging home that day and he has drawn a much better in barrier 7 this year.
He has had the perfect preparation, having only two starts since that Melbourne Cup and he was getting home hard again second-up in the Turnbull Stakes.
That effort showed he is in tip top condition and it will be no surprise to see him produce the run of a lifetime.
Now with the services of last year's Cup winning jockey Craig Williams, expect him to settle a touch closer this time. When we're in the straight and horses are starting to drop off, watch for Williams to be steering his way through the field and coming home at a rate of knots.
His superior turn of foot and ability to run two miles are the main reasons I expect Surprise Baby to win the 2020 Melbourne Cup.
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Melbourne Cup tip from Jaycin Campbell
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Melbourne Cup Tip Flemington Race 7 #13 Surprise Baby $9.50
The baby returns and is back for revenge in the 2020 Melbourne Cup, after finishing fifth beaten 0.9 lengths last year.
On that occasion, he drew barrier 20 of 24 and was asked to round the entire field up. It was an almighty effort as he lengthened a stride down the outside in doing so, running the fastest last 200m of the race.
His preparation this year has been less hyped, but I believe he is going just as well and if not better.
I'm expecting a bold run in what is a strong Cup!
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Melbourne Cup tip from Ben Beare
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Melbourne Cup Tip Flemington Race 7 #21 Tiger Moth $7.00
The international with a light-weight fits the profile of recent successful Melbourne Cup runners.
The booking of Kerrin McEvoy suggests he's the best of the internationals and he'll be very hard to beat.
Lightly raced with only four career starts, but he's clearly a stayer with above average ability.
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Melbourne Cup tip Adrian Sciglitano
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Melbourne Cup Tip Flemington Race 7 #11 Prince of Arran $12.00
In what is an open race with multiple chances over the famous Flemington two miles, I’ll swing the way of the Charlie Fellowes trained eight-year-old Prince of Arran.
The now Australian regular lines up in his third Melbourne Cup, after going agonisingly close on both occasions when third behind Cross counter in 2018 before finishing runner-up to Vow And Declare last year.
He looks to have come to Australia in career best form, having run fourth in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) only beaten a narrow 1.95-lengths behind Verry Elleegant.
His run was full of merit with the gelding able to reel off the best closing sectionals from the 800m mark, including a rapid closing burst of 11.92. This confirms that he is going better than ever.
He arrives on Cup day at peak fitness, with an identical set up which has seen him in the finish in the past.
He is proven at the 3200m (9:1:2:2), loves Flemington (3:1:1:1) where he is yet to miss a placing and all his Australian form (7:2:2:2) rates well enough to win this year’s Melbourne Cup.
He has drawn perfectly in barrier 1 to do no work in the run and they have found premiership leading Jockey Jaime Kah to take the ride, in what looks a match made in heaven.
He has the correct lead up, brings exceptional form to this year’s Melbourne Cup and can’t do anything but run well.
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Best Bet from Kurt Burns
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Melbourne Cup Tip Flemington Race 7 #21 Tiger Moth $7.00
It's hard to go past the internationals in the big one, with little-to-no weight on their backs.
The booking of Kerrin McEvoy is a positive, as he's the best staying rider in Australia in my opinion.
He's drawn a sticky gate (23), but that just means we get a better price!
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Melbourne Cup tip Lewis Willoughby
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Melbourne Cup Tip Flemington Race 7 #11 Finche $20.00
Keen to be with Finche in the 2020 Melbourne Cup, a horse who hasn't had a lot of luck this preparation but continues to race very well.
He comes into the Cup this year fourth-up, most recently finishing fifth behind Verry Elleegant in the Caulfield Cup over 2400m.
He was yet again caught three wide without cover in that race, just as he has been in every single start so far this prep.
He managed to box on very gallantly to finish only 2.5 lengths off the winner, and the way he kept fighting back through the line indicates he is a horse who is giving his all and will be very competitive up in trip now.
Rock hard fit, the booking of James McDonald is a big push within itself.
From barrier 6, I expect him to finally be able to race with cover in a position just behind the speed.
He started as favourite in the Cup last year and was only beaten 1.4 lengths on the line, so you know he is proven at the distance and intensity of a Melbourne Cup tilt.
He definitely has the scope to turn the tables on a number of rivals, and I'm happy to play him each way.
My boxed first four numbers are 1/5/11/13/19/21
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Best Bet from Dean Watling
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Melbourne Cup Tip Flemington Race 7 #21 Tiger Moth $7.00
What an outstanding edition of the Melbourne Cup, which shapes to be a cracker.
Tiger Moth is the horse I'm keen to be with. Despite having a few things against him come Cup Day, he has an untapped ability which I can't resist.
He is looking to take out the Cup in only his fifth career start, bringing the phenomenal northern hemisphere three-year-old form line.
Recent Melbourne Cup champs Cross Counter (2018) and Rekindling (2017) came here with the same profile, which speaks volumes.
What I'm most impressed by is the horse's progression in his short career.
His run in the Irish Derby back in June was outstanding, where he showed a dynamic turn of foot carrying 58.5kg to run a bold second to Santiago. That galloper then went on to run 2.25 lengths off Stradivarius in the Goodwood over 3218m. That is the right form.
Tiger Moth then went to a new level in his next start, taking out a Group 3 over 2414m by 4 lengths, exploding away from his rivals.
He'll combine with three time Melbourne Cup winner Kerrin McEvoy, which is a huge plus.
He will need a perfect ride from barrier 23, but the key to this horse is his elite acceleration which will enable him to get out of any tricky situations.
My first 4 selections are Tiger Moth, Surprise Baby, Verry Elleegant, Prince Of Arran
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3/11/20 Melbourne Cup Lays of the Day
On Derby Day we potted Octane at the $2.80 short quote, when the horse was never sighted and saved the blushes of punters who follow this column.
For Cup Day, we have found another Flemington runner that looks well under the odds as he tackles the Flemington straight again and appears unsuited by the low draw.
At Randwick, a skinny priced three-year-old colt faces a tough task to reel in the leaders off an expected slow tempo.
Flemington Race 1 #1 Ingratiating $2.40
He will be short across all totes due to the Godolphin factor and being the first favourite of the day, hence is likely to be artificially compressed from a price angle.
The debut win here at Flemington was good, however he was soft in the market ($9 out to $12) and not expected to race that well which indicates he is no superstar.
On Derby Day, the inside section of the track appeared to be least preferred for straight racing with the last winner (Fiesta) coming down the outside.
If this pattern plays out again on Tuesday, this horse will be unsuited by the inside draw in gate 2.
I expect a significant market drift late and for a wave of money to arrive for Marine One. Lay.
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Randwick Race 1 #2 Kermanding $2.40
Looks a good colt, however surely the poison $2.40 must be avoided at his first try out to 1800m.
He won at Kembla last start when racing well back in the field, before charging late.
However, that was against a rubbish field in maiden grade and this is a big step-up in class.
He is likely to race back in the field as per his normal pattern and I expect them to crawl here, with an advantage for those sprinting off the front.
There is certainly enough against to be risking him at the skinny odds on this occasion. Avoid.
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Melbourne Cup tips 2020: A brutally honest assessment of your horse
You will read a lot of positive comments about every runner in the 2020 Melbourne Cup.
However, the reality is there are only a handful of horses that have a genuine chance of winning.
To cut through the noise and get to the gist, I've rated each runner and provided you with my brutally honest assessment of your horse's chances in the big race.
1. ANTHONY VAN DYCK (3)
Was enormous in the Caulfield Cup, where he drew barrier 17 and made a long-sustained run with 58.5kg to finish within 0.2 lengths of Verry Elleegant.
He meets her 0.5kg better at the weights for this, but more importantly has drawn perfectly in barrier 3.
Hugh Bowman will be better for the one ride on him, but he'll need to be at his best given this is the first time he's raced over the two-miles.
He's the best horse in the race but under handicap conditions and with plenty of class lining up, I can't see him saluting.
#WeightStopsTrains
Bookies Price: $8
Rated Price: $17
2. AVILIUS (10)
Hasn't won since the George Main Stakes over 1600m in September of 2019.
His only attempt at the race came in 2018, which was a complete pen job.
I don't think he runs a strong 3200m and would be shocked if he finished in the top 10.
#MayNeedADefibrillator
Bookies Price: $51
Rated Price: $101
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3. VOW AND DECLARE (4)
The defending champ who has been going like a busted since last year's victory.
Has lost the services of Craig Williams, then Damien Oliver jumped off which leaves Jamie Mott with the ride.
He's proven over the 3200m, loves Flemington but will be forced to lug an extra 5kg this year.
#NeedsAMiracle
Bookies Price: $51
Rated Price: $101
4. MASTER OF REALITY (11)
Was relegated to 4th in last year's Melbourne Cup after a Frankie Dettori horror show.
He was flogged by Twilight Payment (8 lengths) three runs back, but has bounced back with some decent runs since.
I doubt he gets a picnic in front this year and I can't see him running top 10.
#RealityCheck
Bookies Price: $26
Rated Price: $51
5. SIR DRAGONET (14)
Was so impressive winning the Cox Plate.
Glen Boss is looking for his fourth Melbourne Cup victory and knows what it takes to get the job done on the first Tuesday in November.
Appears to love rain affected going and won't get that this time around.
#Bossy
Bookies Price: $9
Rated Price: $15
6. TWILIGHT PAYMENT (12)
Led them up in last year's Cup, but lacked the turn of foot when needed.
Going as well as ever but I just can't see him improving on last year's effort.
This looks a more competitive field, so I'll let him go through to the keeper.
#TooSlow
Bookies Price: $34
Rated Price: $51
7. VERRY ELLEEGANT (15)
Was very impressive in the Caulfield Cup and rises to the 3200m for the first time.
That came on a favourable Soft 6 surface, which she won't get on Tuesday.
Her record of six Group 1 wins is phenomenal but she looks vulnerable over the two-miles for the first-time, especially on a dry track.
#PrayForRain
Bookies Price: $14
Rated Price: $21
8. MUSTAJEER (2)
Is running up to his best, but he looks seriously outclassed.
Ran 23 of 24 in a weaker edition of the Cup last year and is once again making up the numbers.
#AmbulanceChaser
Bookies Price $101
Rated Price $201
9. STRATUM ALBION (9)
Willie Mullins brings this eight-year-old plodder down under.
He'll run out the 3200m and has no issue on a dry track.
The problem is, he looks as 'slow as a wet week'.
#GoHomeWillie
Bookies Price: $46
Rated Price: $101
10. DASHING WILLOUGHBY(19)
Ran last in the Caulfield Cup and would need to improve out of sight to run top 10.
He'll give a great sight for 2400m, before popping like a balloon.
#LacksSaidDash
Bookies Price: $101
Rated Price: $101
11. FINCHE (6)
Now at his third Melbourne Cup and hasn't finished any better than fourth in the great race.
The long-term booking of James McDonald suggests Chris Waller has him set to jump out of the ground.
Can take a forward position and will have no issues with a dry track. Top 5.
#Peaking
Bookies Price: $18
Rated Price $18
12. PRINCE OF ARRAN (1)
Put in an eye-catching run in the Caulfield Cup, flashing home from back in the field.
She looked the winner at the 50m mark last year and loves the Flemington two-miles.
The in-form Jamie Kah takes the ride and can get the best out of this horse.
Huge chance!
#WalkerOff
Bookies Price: $12
Rated Price: $10
13. SURPRISE BABY (7)
This has been his target since running an unlucky fifth last year.
With any luck, there will be some pace put into the race and he can use his turn of foot to fight out the finish.
Barrier 7 is perfect and so is the booking of Craig Williams.
Best of the Aussies!
#NoSurprisesHere
Bookies Price: $9
Rated Price: $9
14. KING OF LEOGRANCE (18)
Ran well in the Geelong Cup, finishing third behind Steel Prince and beating Ashrun home.
Drops 4.5kg from that run and is a winner over 3200m. Will relish the dry track and is a genuine top 10 chance.
Barrier 18 is less than ideal and he'll need the speed on to run home well.
#BGrader
Bookies Price: $51
Rated Price: $41
15.RUSSIAN CAMELOT (16)
Was game in a gruelling Cox Plate and ticked plenty of boxes.
The booking gun jockey Damien Oliver suggests the stable are confident he'll handle the rise to 3200m.
My concern is the rock-hard surface, given he looks more effective on a rain affected deck.
#LeaveTheSprinklersOn
Bookies Price: $13
Rated Price: $15
16. STEEL PRINCE (21)
The winner of the Geelong Cup, who ran 9th in the Cup last year.
Barrier 21 suggests he'll be ridden from the rear and if that's the case, I doubt he can match it with the A-Grader's.
#NeedsToLift
Bookies Price: $41
Rated Price: $61
17. THE CHOSEN ONE (5)
Was given no chance from the back off a slow speed in last year's Melbourne Cup and can improve.
He's since put in a huge run in the Caulfield Cup, finishing 3rd behind Verry Elleegant.
He's a genuine top 10 chance, but won't be winning.
#Next
Bookies Price: $41
Rated Price: $41
18. ASHRUN (24)
Needed the run in the Geelong Cup and was then ultra-impressive in the Hotham on Saturday.
Reports are that he's recovered well from the run. He drops 8kg for this and is reaching peak fitness.
If the pace is on, he has the ability to round most of these up in the straight.
#SneakyHope
Bookies Price: $23
Rated Price: $12
19. WARNING (8)
The winner of last year's Victoria Derby, who hasn't saluted since.
He's drawn perfectly in barrier 8 for this, but just lacks the class of his rivals.
#WarningCan'tWin
Bookies Price: $51
Rated Price: $51
20. ETAH JAMES (22)
Couldn't get close to Miami Bound in the Moonee Valley Cup, losing out by 4 lengths.
Her best effort isn't likely to see her run top 20.
#Dud
Bookies Price: $201
Rated Price: $201
21. TIGER MOTH (23)
Has all the marks of a Melbourne Cup winner. Strong European staying form, carries only 52.5kg and has an elite trainer.
The booking of Australia's best big-race jockey Kerrin McEvoy is a huge push that the horse is top-class.
The barrier draw stinks, but if anyone can overcome it, McEvoy can.
The horse dead-set picks himself!
#WinnerWinner
Bookies Price: $8
Rated Price: $7
22. OCEANEX (17)
Was towelled up by Miami Bound in the Moonee Valley Cup and just isn't up to these.
This is his first run over 3200m and from what we've seen this prep, he's making up the numbers.
#GetInTheSea
Bookies Price $81
Rated Price: $101
23. MIAMI BOUND (13)
Produced a big win last week in really good time.
Barrier 13 is ideal and I think she can sit more forward in the run and be poised to strike.
She was dominant in the VRC Oaks at this track last year and while this is a big step up, it wouldn't surprise to see her run a career peak.
With a soft run in transit, I can see her running top 5.
#AussieAussieAussie
Bookies Price: $41
Rated Price $15
24. PERSAN (20)
Impressed in the Bart Cummings and loves the Flemington track.
The draw is a dead-set disaster, but I think they'll push the button and send him forward.
Unproven over the 3200m and looks a few levels below the best.
#DoubtIt
Bookies Price: $41
Rated Price: $61
Melbourne Cup Tips
1st Tiger Moth
2nd Suprise Baby
3rd Prince Of Arran
4th Miami Bound
Every punter and tipster from Australia's racing media who posts Melbourne Cup tips appears on our dedicated page ranked by their profit.Read more
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You will read a lot of positive comments about every runner in the 2021 Melbourne Cup, but the reality is there are only a handful of horses that have a genuine chance of winning. To cut through th.....READ MORE
02/11/21 Melbourne Cup Tips Oct 31, 2021
1. TWILIGHT PAYMENT (GB)
9 year old bay gelding (6-5-2013) Sire: Teofilo (IRE) Dam: Dream On Buddy (IRE)
Trainer: Joseph O'Brien (Co. Kilkenny (IRE)) Jockey: Jye McNeil 58kg Barrier:2
.....READ MORE
13/10/21 David Gately tips & early predictions for the Melbourne Cup Oct 13, 2021
Date
November 2
Distance
3200m
Track
Flemington
Class
Handicap
2020 winner
Twilight Payment ($26)
.....READ MORE
Exclusive Melbourne Cup Packages
David Gately
Deane Lester
Mark Hunter
Mick Gannon
Melbourne Cup Tips
All punters and Australian racing media tip packages on this page contain tips in the Melbourne Cup.
Profits showing for the punters and racing experts are the best profit statistics as recorded from tips placed on this site.
If you prefer FREE TIPS scroll down until you see racing experts from Australia's racing media and click the FREE TIPS button to view their selections.
02/11/21 Melbourne Cup Tips
1. TWILIGHT PAYMENT (GB)
9 year old bay gelding (6-5-2013) Sire: Teofilo (IRE) Dam: Dream On Buddy (IRE)
Trainer: Joseph O'Brien (Co. Kilkenny (IRE)) Jockey: Jye McNeil 58kg Barrier:2
Record: 36:9-11-8 Prizemoney:$5,682,805 1st Up: 9:0-5-1 2nd Up: 8:1-1-4
Rick says...
Was enormous last year when winning the Cup from the front.
Is in just as good as form this time, however he will be forced to carry an extra 2.5kgs up to 58kgs.
It is unlikely we’ll see a 9 year old carrying top weight winning, however I won’t write him off.
2. INCENTIVISE
5 year old bay gelding (22-10-2016) Sire: Shamus Award Dam: Miss Argyle (Iglesia)
Trainer: Peter G Moody (Pakenham OC) Jockey: Brett Prebble 57kg Barrier:16
Record: 12:9-0-0 Prizemoney:$4,643,300 1st Up: 3:1-0-0 2nd Up: 2:1-0-0
Rick says...
Star stayer, who has measured up to each challenge he has been presented with.
He couldn’t have been more impressive in the Caulfield Cup, making it a true staying test in the soft conditions.
Although he is carrying a big weight, this former Toowoomba trained runner appears bullet proof.
I believe he will space them to win comfortably.
3. SPANISH MISSION (USA)
6 year old bay horse (6-4-2016) Sire: Noble Mission (GB) Dam: Limonar (IRE) (Street Cry (IRE)
Trainer: Andrew Balding (Kingsclere (GB)) Jockey: Craig Williams 57kg Barrier:14
Record: 18:6-4-3 Prizemoney:$2,092,657 1st Up: 7:0-4-1 2nd Up: 4:2-0-0
Rick says...
The spruik around this import is based around his close second to Stradivarius.
He had every chance to go past the champion stayer, who wasn’t quite as good as his form 12 months earlier.
History suggests 57kgs first up isn’t the right profile for a UK based galloper.
Distance suits and is in my top 4 based on his overall staying ability.
4. VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ)
6 year old brown mare (12-10-2015) Sire: Zed (NZ) Dam: Opulence (NZ) (Danroad)
Trainer: Chris Waller (Flemington) Jockey: James McDonald 57kg Barrier:19
Record: 33:14-7-3 Prizemoney:$9,690,744 1st Up: 7:1-3-1 2nd Up: 7:4-1-0
Rick says...
Nine-time Group 1 winner who was pretty good in the Cox Plate last start, which is as good a lead up race as you can get.
Up 1.5kgs in weight from last year’s Melbourne Cup. She was back near the rear and was one of the fastest closers, though she was entitle to given she had little work to do.
Expect her to give a big sight once again.
5. EXPLOSIVE JACK (NZ)
4 year old bay horse (9-11-2017) Sire: Jakkalberry (IRE) Dam: Extra Explosive (NZ) (Ekraar (USA) Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace (Caulfield) Jockey: John Allen 54kg Barrier:4
Record: 12:5-1-2 Prizemoney:$1,814,730 1st Up: 2:1-0-0 2nd Up: 2:0-0-0 Rick says...
Rick says...
Triple Derby winner who ran a solid fifth in the Turnbull stakes.
Jack’s run in the Caulfield Cup (17th) was too bad to be true, so I am prepared to forgive that effort.
He’s got an inform jockey in John Allen and the Maher/Eustace stable is flying at the moment.
They’re racing for the top 10.
6. THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ)
6 year old bay horse (30-9-2015) Sire: Savabeel Dam: The Glitzy One (Flying Spur)
Trainer: Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman (Cambridge (NZ)) Jockey: Damian Lane 54kg Barrier:5
Record: 35:6-5-3 Prizemoney:$1,899,409 1st Up: 7:2-2-2 2nd Up: 7:1-1-0
Rick says...
Another who didn’t fire a shot in the Caulfield Cup.
He ran a career best, in last year’s Melbourne Cup, finishing fourth with 53.5kgs.
He has only 54kgs this year and could be one for the exotics again as he was ticking along OK before last start’s failure.
Watch Michael Gannon and Dean Watling's early bets for Melbourne Cup week!
7. DELPHI (IRE)
5 year old bay horse (31-1-2017) Sire: Galileo (IRE) Dam: Bye Bye Birdie (IRE) (Oasis Dream (GB)
Trainer: Anthony & Sam Freedman (Mornington) Jockey: Damien Oliver 53.5kg Barrier:3
Record: 10:5-1-0 Prizemoney:$360,841 1st Up: 4:1-0-0 2nd Up: 2:1-1-0
Rick says...
Won the Group 2 Herbert Power over 2400M, then did a bit of work to find the lead from the wide gate in the Caulfield Cup.
Didn’t finish off so if ridden with a sit on this occasion, I’m prepared to put him into the multiples at the long price.
8. OCEAN BILLY (NZ)
6 year old chestnut gelding (5-10-2015) Sire: Ocean Park (NZ) Dam: Cool Storm (NZ)
Trainer: Chris Waller (Flemington) Jockey: Damien Thornton 53.5kg Barrier:13
Record: 25:7-1-1 Prizemoney:$547,720 1st Up: 5:0-1-0 2nd Up: 5:3-0-0
Rick says...
Auckland Cup winner over this distance though hasn’t really troubled the scorers over here.
Can’t see him getting near these.
9. SELINO (GB)
6 year old bay gelding (5-5-2016) Sire: Champs Elysees (GB) Dam: Air Kiss (GB)
Trainer: Chris Waller (Flemington) Jockey: Ron Stewart 53.5kg Barrier:24
Record: 20:3-5-2 Prizemoney:$1,481,470 1st Up: 4:0-2-0 2nd Up: 4:0-1-0
Rick says...
Sydney Cup winner over this trip, who’s best run this prep was fourth in the Bart Cummings over 2520M.
He will stay the distance, though won’t have the necessary acceleration to put him in the finish.
10. JOHNNY GET ANGRY (NZ)
4 year old bay gelding (9-11-2017) Sire: Tavistock (NZ) Dam: Luminova (NZ)
Trainer: Denis Pagan (Flemington) Jockey: Lachlan King 53kg (a) Barrier:22
Record: 11:1-1-2 Prizemoney:$1,268,675 1st Up: 2:0-0-0 2nd Up: 2:0-0-1
Rick says...
Was a Cinderella story last Spring carnival, winning the Victoria Derby for former AFL dual premiership coach Denis Pagan.
He’s receiving publicity for the wrong reasons this year, with Glen Boss stating Johnny shouldn’t be in the field because of his sub-standard performances.
I’ve felt all along he was being trained for one race only this prep, and that’s The Cup.
Expect a much better run this time.
11. KNIGHTS ORDER (IRE)
7 year old bay or brown gelding (5-5-2015) Sire: So You Think (NZ) Dam: Lamanka Lass (USA)
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott (Flemington) Jockey: Daniel Stackhouse 53kg Barrier:9
Record: 21:7-0-2 Prizemoney:$473,501 1st Up: 5:0-0-0 2nd Up: 5:2-0-0
Rick says...
Led all the way to win this year’s Brisbane Cup and should pilot the field again here.
Disappointing in the Geelong Cup and Hotham Handicap at his last couple, so I can’t have him.
12. PERSAN
5 year old brown gelding (22-9-2016) Sire: Pierro Dam: Ofcourseican (Mossman)
Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace (Caulfield) Jockey: Luke Currie 53kg Barrier:11
Record: 27:7-5-3 Prizemoney:$1,404,721 1st Up: 5:1-0-2 2nd Up: 5:1-1-0
Rick says...
Is a consistent performer at any level and was only 2.45 lengths fifth, in last years Melbourne Cup, where he carried 51kgs.
Goes up 2kgsthis year but is a top four hope.
13. CARIF
6 year old brown gelding (13-9-2015) Sire: So You Think (NZ) Dam: Norzita (NZ)
Trainer: Peter & Paul Snowden (Flemington) Jockey: Blaike McDougall 52.5kg Barrier: 8
Record: 37:3-8-1 Prizemoney: $730,285 1st Up: 7:0-0-0 2nd Up: 7:1-0-1
Rick says...
Performs better over these longer trips though hasn’t got what’s required to be competitive here.
14. MASTER OF WINE (GER)
7 year old bay gelding (13-4-2015) Sire: Maxios (GB) Dam: Magma (GER)
Trainer: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes (Flemington) Jockey: Fred Kersley 52.5kg Barrier:6
Record: 28:5-5-4 Prizemoney:$900,309 1st Up: 8:2-2-1 2nd Up: 8:1-1-1
Rick says...
Had big wraps on him last year, though hasn’t reached the heights that were expected of him.
Is a distance query for mine.
15. PONDUS (GB)
6 year old bay gelding (8-2-2016) Sire: Sea The Moon (GER) Dam: Diablerette (GB)
Trainer: Robert Hickmont (Mount Macedon) Jockey: Rachel King 52.5kg Barrier:1
Record: 19:3-7-1 Prizemoney:$336,109 1st Up: 5:0-2-0 2nd Up: 5:2-2-0
Rick says..
Hasn’t produced a win in Australia in 4 attempts.
From the Lloyd Williams Mount Macedon stable who know what it takes to win a cup.
Not this year.
16. GRAND PROMENADE (GB)
6 year old bay gelding (1-3-2016) Sire: Champs Elysees (GB) Dam: Zacchera (GB)
Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace (Caulfield) Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy 52kg Barrier:21
Record: 19:8-4-2 Prizemoney:$1,009,800 1st Up: 3:0-1-1 2nd Up: 3:0-1-1
Rick says..
This bloke doesn’t put a foot wrong!
His jockey Kerrin McEvoy has won three Melbourne Cups.
He ran second in the Andrew Ramsden here over 2800M carrying 58.5 kgs and gets in here with 52 kilos.
If there was to be an upset, he could be the one.
17. MIAMI BOUND (NZ)
5 year old bay mare (7-11-2016) Sire: Reliable Man (GB) Dam: Arapaho Miss
Trainer: Danny O'Brien (Flemington) Jockey: Patrick Moloney 52kg Barrier:17
Record: 26:5-0-5 Prizemoney:$1,672,200 1st Up: 6:1-0-1 2nd Up: 5:1-0-0
Rick says..
Has placed a couple of times over the staying trips though is not going well enough.
18. PORT GUILLAUME (FR)
5 year old bay gelding (29-3-2017) Sire: Le Havre (IRE) Dam: Keira (FR)
Trainer: Ben & JD Hayes (Flemington) Jockey: Harry Coffey 52kg Barrier:23
Record: 10:4-0-0 Prizemoney:$308,688 1st Up: 3:2-0-0 2nd Up: 3:1-0-0
Rick says..
Won the Group 2 Prix Hocquart over 2500M last year.
Not going well enough.
19. SHE’S IDEEL
6 year old bay mare (5-10-2015) Sire: Dundeel (NZ) Dam: Ana’s Mail
Trainer: Bjorn Baker (Warwick Farm) Jockey: Craig Newitt 52kg Barrier:20
Record: 25:6-6-5 Prizemoney:$1,101,075 1st Up: 5:0-2-2 2nd Up: 5:0-2-1 Rick says..
Rick says..
Finished off OK in the Caulfield Cup.
Unsure about the 3200M.
20. FUTURE SCORE (IRE)
5 year old bay gelding (29-3-2017) Sire: Le Havre (IRE) Dam: Keira (FR)
Trainer: Ben & JD Hayes (Flemington) Jockey: Harry Coffey 52kg Barrier:23
Record: 10:4-0-0 Prizemoney:$308,688 1st Up: 3:2-0-0 2nd Up: 3:1-0-0
Rick says..
The listed Cranbourne Cup is his biggest success here so he won’t be troubling this field.
21. TRALEE ROSE (NZ)
5 year old bay mare (13-10-2016) Sire: Tavistock (NZ) Dam: Star of Tralee
Trainer: Symon Wilde (Warrnambool) Jockey: Dean Holland 51kg Barrier:12
Record: 15:6-4-2 Prizemoney:$744,725 1st Up: 3:1-0-1 2nd Up: 3:1-1-1 Rick says..
Rick says..
Loved the way she attacked the line in the Geelong Cup.
She has Zabeel in her bloodlines which suggests she will get the trip even though her Adelaide Cup run was below par.
I things she can push for the exacta position and run the race of a lifetime.
22. FLOATING ARTIST (GB)
6 year old bay or brown gelding (29-2-2016) Sire: Nathaniel (IRE) Dam: Miss Kenton (IRE)
Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace (Caulfield) Jockey: Teodore Nugent 50kg (a) Barrier:10
Record: 16:5-2-1 Prizemoney:$479,018 1st Up: 6:2-0-0 2nd Up: 5:1-1-0
Rick says..
He ran a bottler in the Moonee Valley Cup, a race that has produced Melbourne Cup winners.
He is one I took in early doubles, so I will be silently cheering.
Definite lightweight hope.
23. GREAT HOUSE (IRE)
5 year old bay gelding (28-12-2016) Sire: Galileo (IRE) Dam: Anja (IRE)
Trainer: Chris Waller (Flemington) Jockey: Michael Dee 50kg Barrier:7
Record: 15:5-2-3 Prizemoney:$694,290 1st Up: 3:1-1-1 2nd Up: 3:2-0-1
Rick says..
Won the Hotham Handicap on Saturday however it was an inferior edition this year.
Top 10 chance given the low weight.
24. SIR LUCAN (IRE)
4 year old bay horse (24-2-2018) Sire: Camelot (GB) Dam: Sparrow (IRE)
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott (Flemington) Jockey: Glen Boss 50kg Barrier:18
Record: 8:2-1-0 Prizemoney:$152,926 1st Up: 4:0-1-0 2nd Up: 3:2-0-0
Rick says..
Northern Hemisphere youngster who is with the Waterhouse/ Bott stable.
An unknown at this level so may be one to throw into your exotics.
History says
Horses need to be able to stay the journey and have a turn of foot over the final 300 metres. Those who have won at their last start have a great winning record in the Cup
Lightweights have an advantage over the 3200M.
Speed
Knights Order should take up the running with Twilight Payment and Delphi tucking in behind him.
Grand Promenade will come across from the outside draw and try to find some cover.
Melbourne Cup Tips
Incentivise
Tralee Rose
Floating Artist
Spanish Mission
Best roughie: Grand Promenade
Read more
13/10/21 David Gately tips & early predictions for the Melbourne Cup
Date
November 2
Distance
3200m
Track
Flemington
Class
Handicap
2020 winner
Twilight Payment ($26)
Our look at David Gately's early tips for the Spring Carnival concludes with Australia's most famous race: the Melbourne Cup.
The famous two-mile handicap on the hallowed turf of Flemington is the pinnacle of the carnival. For punters, there's always plenty of value up for grabs in the Cup, especially in the futures markets.
With that in mind, let's see what David Gately says about the race...
Melbourne Cup tips
REALM OF FLOWERS
Good thing licked in the Sydney Cup for mine then total dominance at Flemington in the Andrew Ramsden.
She can sustain real speed at the end of marathon trips and will not be harshly weighted.
DAWN PATROL
Lightly-raced Galileo in the right stable to win this race. Just missed in G3 in his last overseas start with True Self (won Queen Elizabeth) behind him in third.
Good building runs in Australia and looks set for the race.
INCENTIVISE
No reason to say he won’t run 3200m given sustained speed/excellence on the clock at end of 2400-2500m.
But the distance is an unknown, and he will also have a weight penalty if he wins the Caulfield Cup.
PONDUS
Good second to True Self in the Queen Elizabeth and has had the preparation over here. Also, has been in great form back home since then.
Like Dawn Patrol, from the key Hickmott/Williams stable.
Melbourne Cup odds for the all-in market
Runner
Win $
Incentivise
$5
Spanish Mission
$8
Twilight Payment
$11
Away He Goes
$15
Explosive Jack
$15
Grand Promenade
$15
Verry Elleegant
$15
Realm Of Flowers
$17
Dawn Patrol
$26
Pondus
$26
Read more
Melbourne Cup Tips from leading tipsters 2020
Melbourne Cup tip from Rick Morris
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Melbourne Cup Tip Flemington Race 7 #13 Surprise Baby $9.50
Whilst there were a couple of hard luck stories in last year's Melbourne Cup, this crowd favourite was one who had to come from last and wide out on the home turn.
He produced a withering sprint to go down by under a length.
The Paul Presker trained gelding was charging home that day and he has drawn a much better in barrier 7 this year.
He has had the perfect preparation, having only two starts since that Melbourne Cup and he was getting home hard again second-up in the Turnbull Stakes.
That effort showed he is in tip top condition and it will be no surprise to see him produce the run of a lifetime.
Now with the services of last year's Cup winning jockey Craig Williams, expect him to settle a touch closer this time. When we're in the straight and horses are starting to drop off, watch for Williams to be steering his way through the field and coming home at a rate of knots.
His superior turn of foot and ability to run two miles are the main reasons I expect Surprise Baby to win the 2020 Melbourne Cup.
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Melbourne Cup tip from Jaycin Campbell
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Melbourne Cup Tip Flemington Race 7 #13 Surprise Baby $9.50
The baby returns and is back for revenge in the 2020 Melbourne Cup, after finishing fifth beaten 0.9 lengths last year.
On that occasion, he drew barrier 20 of 24 and was asked to round the entire field up. It was an almighty effort as he lengthened a stride down the outside in doing so, running the fastest last 200m of the race.
His preparation this year has been less hyped, but I believe he is going just as well and if not better.
I'm expecting a bold run in what is a strong Cup!
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Melbourne Cup tip from Ben Beare
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Melbourne Cup Tip Flemington Race 7 #21 Tiger Moth $7.00
The international with a light-weight fits the profile of recent successful Melbourne Cup runners.
The booking of Kerrin McEvoy suggests he's the best of the internationals and he'll be very hard to beat.
Lightly raced with only four career starts, but he's clearly a stayer with above average ability.
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Melbourne Cup tip Adrian Sciglitano
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Melbourne Cup Tip Flemington Race 7 #11 Prince of Arran $12.00
In what is an open race with multiple chances over the famous Flemington two miles, I’ll swing the way of the Charlie Fellowes trained eight-year-old Prince of Arran.
The now Australian regular lines up in his third Melbourne Cup, after going agonisingly close on both occasions when third behind Cross counter in 2018 before finishing runner-up to Vow And Declare last year.
He looks to have come to Australia in career best form, having run fourth in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) only beaten a narrow 1.95-lengths behind Verry Elleegant.
His run was full of merit with the gelding able to reel off the best closing sectionals from the 800m mark, including a rapid closing burst of 11.92. This confirms that he is going better than ever.
He arrives on Cup day at peak fitness, with an identical set up which has seen him in the finish in the past.
He is proven at the 3200m (9:1:2:2), loves Flemington (3:1:1:1) where he is yet to miss a placing and all his Australian form (7:2:2:2) rates well enough to win this year’s Melbourne Cup.
He has drawn perfectly in barrier 1 to do no work in the run and they have found premiership leading Jockey Jaime Kah to take the ride, in what looks a match made in heaven.
He has the correct lead up, brings exceptional form to this year’s Melbourne Cup and can’t do anything but run well.
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Best Bet from Kurt Burns
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Melbourne Cup Tip Flemington Race 7 #21 Tiger Moth $7.00
It's hard to go past the internationals in the big one, with little-to-no weight on their backs.
The booking of Kerrin McEvoy is a positive, as he's the best staying rider in Australia in my opinion.
He's drawn a sticky gate (23), but that just means we get a better price!
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Melbourne Cup tip Lewis Willoughby
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Lewis steered punters into September Run paying $4.30 at Flemington on Saturday!
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Melbourne Cup Tip Flemington Race 7 #11 Finche $20.00
Keen to be with Finche in the 2020 Melbourne Cup, a horse who hasn't had a lot of luck this preparation but continues to race very well.
He comes into the Cup this year fourth-up, most recently finishing fifth behind Verry Elleegant in the Caulfield Cup over 2400m.
He was yet again caught three wide without cover in that race, just as he has been in every single start so far this prep.
He managed to box on very gallantly to finish only 2.5 lengths off the winner, and the way he kept fighting back through the line indicates he is a horse who is giving his all and will be very competitive up in trip now.
Rock hard fit, the booking of James McDonald is a big push within itself.
From barrier 6, I expect him to finally be able to race with cover in a position just behind the speed.
He started as favourite in the Cup last year and was only beaten 1.4 lengths on the line, so you know he is proven at the distance and intensity of a Melbourne Cup tilt.
He definitely has the scope to turn the tables on a number of rivals, and I'm happy to play him each way.
My boxed first four numbers are 1/5/11/13/19/21
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Melbourne Cup Tip Flemington Race 7 #21 Tiger Moth $7.00
What an outstanding edition of the Melbourne Cup, which shapes to be a cracker.
Tiger Moth is the horse I'm keen to be with. Despite having a few things against him come Cup Day, he has an untapped ability which I can't resist.
He is looking to take out the Cup in only his fifth career start, bringing the phenomenal northern hemisphere three-year-old form line.
Recent Melbourne Cup champs Cross Counter (2018) and Rekindling (2017) came here with the same profile, which speaks volumes.
What I'm most impressed by is the horse's progression in his short career.
His run in the Irish Derby back in June was outstanding, where he showed a dynamic turn of foot carrying 58.5kg to run a bold second to Santiago. That galloper then went on to run 2.25 lengths off Stradivarius in the Goodwood over 3218m. That is the right form.
Tiger Moth then went to a new level in his next start, taking out a Group 3 over 2414m by 4 lengths, exploding away from his rivals.
He'll combine with three time Melbourne Cup winner Kerrin McEvoy, which is a huge plus.
He will need a perfect ride from barrier 23, but the key to this horse is his elite acceleration which will enable him to get out of any tricky situations.
My first 4 selections are Tiger Moth, Surprise Baby, Verry Elleegant, Prince Of Arran
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3/11/20 Melbourne Cup Lays of the Day
On Derby Day we potted Octane at the $2.80 short quote, when the horse was never sighted and saved the blushes of punters who follow this column.
For Cup Day, we have found another Flemington runner that looks well under the odds as he tackles the Flemington straight again and appears unsuited by the low draw.
At Randwick, a skinny priced three-year-old colt faces a tough task to reel in the leaders off an expected slow tempo.
Flemington Race 1 #1 Ingratiating $2.40
He will be short across all totes due to the Godolphin factor and being the first favourite of the day, hence is likely to be artificially compressed from a price angle.
The debut win here at Flemington was good, however he was soft in the market ($9 out to $12) and not expected to race that well which indicates he is no superstar.
On Derby Day, the inside section of the track appeared to be least preferred for straight racing with the last winner (Fiesta) coming down the outside.
If this pattern plays out again on Tuesday, this horse will be unsuited by the inside draw in gate 2.
I expect a significant market drift late and for a wave of money to arrive for Marine One. Lay.
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Randwick Race 1 #2 Kermanding $2.40
Looks a good colt, however surely the poison $2.40 must be avoided at his first try out to 1800m.
He won at Kembla last start when racing well back in the field, before charging late.
However, that was against a rubbish field in maiden grade and this is a big step-up in class.
He is likely to race back in the field as per his normal pattern and I expect them to crawl here, with an advantage for those sprinting off the front.
There is certainly enough against to be risking him at the skinny odds on this occasion. Avoid.
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Melbourne Cup tips 2020: A brutally honest assessment of your horse
You will read a lot of positive comments about every runner in the 2020 Melbourne Cup.
However, the reality is there are only a handful of horses that have a genuine chance of winning.
To cut through the noise and get to the gist, I've rated each runner and provided you with my brutally honest assessment of your horse's chances in the big race.
1. ANTHONY VAN DYCK (3)
Was enormous in the Caulfield Cup, where he drew barrier 17 and made a long-sustained run with 58.5kg to finish within 0.2 lengths of Verry Elleegant.
He meets her 0.5kg better at the weights for this, but more importantly has drawn perfectly in barrier 3.
Hugh Bowman will be better for the one ride on him, but he'll need to be at his best given this is the first time he's raced over the two-miles.
He's the best horse in the race but under handicap conditions and with plenty of class lining up, I can't see him saluting.
#WeightStopsTrains
Bookies Price: $8
Rated Price: $17
2. AVILIUS (10)
Hasn't won since the George Main Stakes over 1600m in September of 2019.
His only attempt at the race came in 2018, which was a complete pen job.
I don't think he runs a strong 3200m and would be shocked if he finished in the top 10.
#MayNeedADefibrillator
Bookies Price: $51
Rated Price: $101
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3. VOW AND DECLARE (4)
The defending champ who has been going like a busted since last year's victory.
Has lost the services of Craig Williams, then Damien Oliver jumped off which leaves Jamie Mott with the ride.
He's proven over the 3200m, loves Flemington but will be forced to lug an extra 5kg this year.
#NeedsAMiracle
Bookies Price: $51
Rated Price: $101
4. MASTER OF REALITY (11)
Was relegated to 4th in last year's Melbourne Cup after a Frankie Dettori horror show.
He was flogged by Twilight Payment (8 lengths) three runs back, but has bounced back with some decent runs since.
I doubt he gets a picnic in front this year and I can't see him running top 10.
#RealityCheck
Bookies Price: $26
Rated Price: $51
5. SIR DRAGONET (14)
Was so impressive winning the Cox Plate.
Glen Boss is looking for his fourth Melbourne Cup victory and knows what it takes to get the job done on the first Tuesday in November.
Appears to love rain affected going and won't get that this time around.
#Bossy
Bookies Price: $9
Rated Price: $15
6. TWILIGHT PAYMENT (12)
Led them up in last year's Cup, but lacked the turn of foot when needed.
Going as well as ever but I just can't see him improving on last year's effort.
This looks a more competitive field, so I'll let him go through to the keeper.
#TooSlow
Bookies Price: $34
Rated Price: $51
7. VERRY ELLEEGANT (15)
Was very impressive in the Caulfield Cup and rises to the 3200m for the first time.
That came on a favourable Soft 6 surface, which she won't get on Tuesday.
Her record of six Group 1 wins is phenomenal but she looks vulnerable over the two-miles for the first-time, especially on a dry track.
#PrayForRain
Bookies Price: $14
Rated Price: $21
8. MUSTAJEER (2)
Is running up to his best, but he looks seriously outclassed.
Ran 23 of 24 in a weaker edition of the Cup last year and is once again making up the numbers.
#AmbulanceChaser
Bookies Price $101
Rated Price $201
9. STRATUM ALBION (9)
Willie Mullins brings this eight-year-old plodder down under.
He'll run out the 3200m and has no issue on a dry track.
The problem is, he looks as 'slow as a wet week'.
#GoHomeWillie
Bookies Price: $46
Rated Price: $101
10. DASHING WILLOUGHBY(19)
Ran last in the Caulfield Cup and would need to improve out of sight to run top 10.
He'll give a great sight for 2400m, before popping like a balloon.
#LacksSaidDash
Bookies Price: $101
Rated Price: $101
11. FINCHE (6)
Now at his third Melbourne Cup and hasn't finished any better than fourth in the great race.
The long-term booking of James McDonald suggests Chris Waller has him set to jump out of the ground.
Can take a forward position and will have no issues with a dry track. Top 5.
#Peaking
Bookies Price: $18
Rated Price $18
12. PRINCE OF ARRAN (1)
Put in an eye-catching run in the Caulfield Cup, flashing home from back in the field.
She looked the winner at the 50m mark last year and loves the Flemington two-miles.
The in-form Jamie Kah takes the ride and can get the best out of this horse.
Huge chance!
#WalkerOff
Bookies Price: $12
Rated Price: $10
13. SURPRISE BABY (7)
This has been his target since running an unlucky fifth last year.
With any luck, there will be some pace put into the race and he can use his turn of foot to fight out the finish.
Barrier 7 is perfect and so is the booking of Craig Williams.
Best of the Aussies!
#NoSurprisesHere
Bookies Price: $9
Rated Price: $9
14. KING OF LEOGRANCE (18)
Ran well in the Geelong Cup, finishing third behind Steel Prince and beating Ashrun home.
Drops 4.5kg from that run and is a winner over 3200m. Will relish the dry track and is a genuine top 10 chance.
Barrier 18 is less than ideal and he'll need the speed on to run home well.
#BGrader
Bookies Price: $51
Rated Price: $41
15.RUSSIAN CAMELOT (16)
Was game in a gruelling Cox Plate and ticked plenty of boxes.
The booking gun jockey Damien Oliver suggests the stable are confident he'll handle the rise to 3200m.
My concern is the rock-hard surface, given he looks more effective on a rain affected deck.
#LeaveTheSprinklersOn
Bookies Price: $13
Rated Price: $15
16. STEEL PRINCE (21)
The winner of the Geelong Cup, who ran 9th in the Cup last year.
Barrier 21 suggests he'll be ridden from the rear and if that's the case, I doubt he can match it with the A-Grader's.
#NeedsToLift
Bookies Price: $41
Rated Price: $61
17. THE CHOSEN ONE (5)
Was given no chance from the back off a slow speed in last year's Melbourne Cup and can improve.
He's since put in a huge run in the Caulfield Cup, finishing 3rd behind Verry Elleegant.
He's a genuine top 10 chance, but won't be winning.
#Next
Bookies Price: $41
Rated Price: $41
18. ASHRUN (24)
Needed the run in the Geelong Cup and was then ultra-impressive in the Hotham on Saturday.
Reports are that he's recovered well from the run. He drops 8kg for this and is reaching peak fitness.
If the pace is on, he has the ability to round most of these up in the straight.
#SneakyHope
Bookies Price: $23
Rated Price: $12
19. WARNING (8)
The winner of last year's Victoria Derby, who hasn't saluted since.
He's drawn perfectly in barrier 8 for this, but just lacks the class of his rivals.
#WarningCan'tWin
Bookies Price: $51
Rated Price: $51
20. ETAH JAMES (22)
Couldn't get close to Miami Bound in the Moonee Valley Cup, losing out by 4 lengths.
Her best effort isn't likely to see her run top 20.
#Dud
Bookies Price: $201
Rated Price: $201
21. TIGER MOTH (23)
Has all the marks of a Melbourne Cup winner. Strong European staying form, carries only 52.5kg and has an elite trainer.
The booking of Australia's best big-race jockey Kerrin McEvoy is a huge push that the horse is top-class.
The barrier draw stinks, but if anyone can overcome it, McEvoy can.
The horse dead-set picks himself!
#WinnerWinner
Bookies Price: $8
Rated Price: $7
22. OCEANEX (17)
Was towelled up by Miami Bound in the Moonee Valley Cup and just isn't up to these.
This is his first run over 3200m and from what we've seen this prep, he's making up the numbers.
#GetInTheSea
Bookies Price $81
Rated Price: $101
23. MIAMI BOUND (13)
Produced a big win last week in really good time.
Barrier 13 is ideal and I think she can sit more forward in the run and be poised to strike.
She was dominant in the VRC Oaks at this track last year and while this is a big step up, it wouldn't surprise to see her run a career peak.
With a soft run in transit, I can see her running top 5.
#AussieAussieAussie
Bookies Price: $41
Rated Price $15
24. PERSAN (20)
Impressed in the Bart Cummings and loves the Flemington track.
The draw is a dead-set disaster, but I think they'll push the button and send him forward.
Unproven over the 3200m and looks a few levels below the best.
#DoubtIt
Bookies Price: $41
Rated Price: $61
Melbourne Cup Tips
1st Tiger Moth
2nd Suprise Baby
3rd Prince Of Arran
4th Miami Bound
Every punter and tipster from Australia's racing media who posts Melbourne Cup tips appears on our dedicated page ranked by their profit.Read more
Melbourne Cup Tips
All punters and Australian racing media tip packages on this page contain tips in the Melbourne Cup.
Profits showing for the punters and racing experts are the best profit statistics as recorded from tips placed on this site.
If you prefer FREE TIPS scroll down until you see racing experts from Australia's racing media and click the FREE TIPS button to view their selections.
1. TWILIGHT PAYMENT (GB) 9 year old bay gelding (6-5-2013) Sire: Teofilo (IRE) Dam: Dream On Buddy (IRE) Trainer: Joseph O'Brien (Co. Kilkenny (IRE)) Jockey: Jye McNeil 58kg Barrier:2 .....READ MORE
13/10/21 David Gately tips & early predictions for the Melbourne Cup Oct 13, 2021
Date
November 2
Distance
3200m
Track
Flemington
Class
Handicap
2020 winner
Twilight Payment ($26)
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Date November 2 Distance 3200m Track Flemington Class Handicap 2020 winner Twilight Payment ($26) .....READ MORE
Exclusive Melbourne Cup Packages
Melbourne Cup Tips
All punters and Australian racing media tip packages on this page contain tips in the Melbourne Cup.
Profits showing for the punters and racing experts are the best profit statistics as recorded from tips placed on this site.
If you prefer FREE TIPS scroll down until you see racing experts from Australia's racing media and click the FREE TIPS button to view their selections.
02/11/21 Melbourne Cup Tips |
|
1. TWILIGHT PAYMENT (GB)
9 year old bay gelding (6-5-2013) Sire: Teofilo (IRE) Dam: Dream On Buddy (IRE)
Trainer: Joseph O'Brien (Co. Kilkenny (IRE)) Jockey: Jye McNeil 58kg Barrier:2
Record: 36:9-11-8 Prizemoney:$5,682,805 1st Up: 9:0-5-1 2nd Up: 8:1-1-4
Rick says...
Was enormous last year when winning the Cup from the front.
Is in just as good as form this time, however he will be forced to carry an extra 2.5kgs up to 58kgs.
It is unlikely we’ll see a 9 year old carrying top weight winning, however I won’t write him off.
2. INCENTIVISE
5 year old bay gelding (22-10-2016) Sire: Shamus Award Dam: Miss Argyle (Iglesia)
Trainer: Peter G Moody (Pakenham OC) Jockey: Brett Prebble 57kg Barrier:16
Record: 12:9-0-0 Prizemoney:$4,643,300 1st Up: 3:1-0-0 2nd Up: 2:1-0-0
Rick says...
Star stayer, who has measured up to each challenge he has been presented with.
He couldn’t have been more impressive in the Caulfield Cup, making it a true staying test in the soft conditions.
Although he is carrying a big weight, this former Toowoomba trained runner appears bullet proof.
I believe he will space them to win comfortably.
3. SPANISH MISSION (USA)
6 year old bay horse (6-4-2016) Sire: Noble Mission (GB) Dam: Limonar (IRE) (Street Cry (IRE)
Trainer: Andrew Balding (Kingsclere (GB)) Jockey: Craig Williams 57kg Barrier:14
Record: 18:6-4-3 Prizemoney:$2,092,657 1st Up: 7:0-4-1 2nd Up: 4:2-0-0
Rick says...
The spruik around this import is based around his close second to Stradivarius.
He had every chance to go past the champion stayer, who wasn’t quite as good as his form 12 months earlier.
History suggests 57kgs first up isn’t the right profile for a UK based galloper.
Distance suits and is in my top 4 based on his overall staying ability.
4. VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ)
6 year old brown mare (12-10-2015) Sire: Zed (NZ) Dam: Opulence (NZ) (Danroad)
Trainer: Chris Waller (Flemington) Jockey: James McDonald 57kg Barrier:19
Record: 33:14-7-3 Prizemoney:$9,690,744 1st Up: 7:1-3-1 2nd Up: 7:4-1-0
Rick says...
Nine-time Group 1 winner who was pretty good in the Cox Plate last start, which is as good a lead up race as you can get.
Up 1.5kgs in weight from last year’s Melbourne Cup. She was back near the rear and was one of the fastest closers, though she was entitle to given she had little work to do.
Expect her to give a big sight once again.
5. EXPLOSIVE JACK (NZ)
4 year old bay horse (9-11-2017) Sire: Jakkalberry (IRE) Dam: Extra Explosive (NZ) (Ekraar (USA) Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace (Caulfield) Jockey: John Allen 54kg Barrier:4
Record: 12:5-1-2 Prizemoney:$1,814,730 1st Up: 2:1-0-0 2nd Up: 2:0-0-0 Rick says...
Rick says...
Triple Derby winner who ran a solid fifth in the Turnbull stakes.
Jack’s run in the Caulfield Cup (17th) was too bad to be true, so I am prepared to forgive that effort.
He’s got an inform jockey in John Allen and the Maher/Eustace stable is flying at the moment.
They’re racing for the top 10.
6. THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ)
6 year old bay horse (30-9-2015) Sire: Savabeel Dam: The Glitzy One (Flying Spur)
Trainer: Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman (Cambridge (NZ)) Jockey: Damian Lane 54kg Barrier:5
Record: 35:6-5-3 Prizemoney:$1,899,409 1st Up: 7:2-2-2 2nd Up: 7:1-1-0
Rick says...
Another who didn’t fire a shot in the Caulfield Cup.
He ran a career best, in last year’s Melbourne Cup, finishing fourth with 53.5kgs.
He has only 54kgs this year and could be one for the exotics again as he was ticking along OK before last start’s failure.
Watch Michael Gannon and Dean Watling's early bets for Melbourne Cup week!
7. DELPHI (IRE)
5 year old bay horse (31-1-2017) Sire: Galileo (IRE) Dam: Bye Bye Birdie (IRE) (Oasis Dream (GB)
Trainer: Anthony & Sam Freedman (Mornington) Jockey: Damien Oliver 53.5kg Barrier:3
Record: 10:5-1-0 Prizemoney:$360,841 1st Up: 4:1-0-0 2nd Up: 2:1-1-0
Rick says...
Won the Group 2 Herbert Power over 2400M, then did a bit of work to find the lead from the wide gate in the Caulfield Cup.
Didn’t finish off so if ridden with a sit on this occasion, I’m prepared to put him into the multiples at the long price.
8. OCEAN BILLY (NZ)
6 year old chestnut gelding (5-10-2015) Sire: Ocean Park (NZ) Dam: Cool Storm (NZ)
Trainer: Chris Waller (Flemington) Jockey: Damien Thornton 53.5kg Barrier:13
Record: 25:7-1-1 Prizemoney:$547,720 1st Up: 5:0-1-0 2nd Up: 5:3-0-0
Rick says...
Auckland Cup winner over this distance though hasn’t really troubled the scorers over here.
Can’t see him getting near these.
9. SELINO (GB)
6 year old bay gelding (5-5-2016) Sire: Champs Elysees (GB) Dam: Air Kiss (GB)
Trainer: Chris Waller (Flemington) Jockey: Ron Stewart 53.5kg Barrier:24
Record: 20:3-5-2 Prizemoney:$1,481,470 1st Up: 4:0-2-0 2nd Up: 4:0-1-0
Rick says...
Sydney Cup winner over this trip, who’s best run this prep was fourth in the Bart Cummings over 2520M.
He will stay the distance, though won’t have the necessary acceleration to put him in the finish.
10. JOHNNY GET ANGRY (NZ)
4 year old bay gelding (9-11-2017) Sire: Tavistock (NZ) Dam: Luminova (NZ)
Trainer: Denis Pagan (Flemington) Jockey: Lachlan King 53kg (a) Barrier:22
Record: 11:1-1-2 Prizemoney:$1,268,675 1st Up: 2:0-0-0 2nd Up: 2:0-0-1
Rick says...
Was a Cinderella story last Spring carnival, winning the Victoria Derby for former AFL dual premiership coach Denis Pagan.
He’s receiving publicity for the wrong reasons this year, with Glen Boss stating Johnny shouldn’t be in the field because of his sub-standard performances.
I’ve felt all along he was being trained for one race only this prep, and that’s The Cup.
Expect a much better run this time.
11. KNIGHTS ORDER (IRE)
7 year old bay or brown gelding (5-5-2015) Sire: So You Think (NZ) Dam: Lamanka Lass (USA)
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott (Flemington) Jockey: Daniel Stackhouse 53kg Barrier:9
Record: 21:7-0-2 Prizemoney:$473,501 1st Up: 5:0-0-0 2nd Up: 5:2-0-0
Rick says...
Led all the way to win this year’s Brisbane Cup and should pilot the field again here.
Disappointing in the Geelong Cup and Hotham Handicap at his last couple, so I can’t have him.
12. PERSAN
5 year old brown gelding (22-9-2016) Sire: Pierro Dam: Ofcourseican (Mossman)
Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace (Caulfield) Jockey: Luke Currie 53kg Barrier:11
Record: 27:7-5-3 Prizemoney:$1,404,721 1st Up: 5:1-0-2 2nd Up: 5:1-1-0
Rick says...
Is a consistent performer at any level and was only 2.45 lengths fifth, in last years Melbourne Cup, where he carried 51kgs.
Goes up 2kgsthis year but is a top four hope.
13. CARIF
6 year old brown gelding (13-9-2015) Sire: So You Think (NZ) Dam: Norzita (NZ)
Trainer: Peter & Paul Snowden (Flemington) Jockey: Blaike McDougall 52.5kg Barrier: 8
Record: 37:3-8-1 Prizemoney: $730,285 1st Up: 7:0-0-0 2nd Up: 7:1-0-1
Rick says...
Performs better over these longer trips though hasn’t got what’s required to be competitive here.
14. MASTER OF WINE (GER)
7 year old bay gelding (13-4-2015) Sire: Maxios (GB) Dam: Magma (GER)
Trainer: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes (Flemington) Jockey: Fred Kersley 52.5kg Barrier:6
Record: 28:5-5-4 Prizemoney:$900,309 1st Up: 8:2-2-1 2nd Up: 8:1-1-1
Rick says...
Had big wraps on him last year, though hasn’t reached the heights that were expected of him.
Is a distance query for mine.
15. PONDUS (GB)
6 year old bay gelding (8-2-2016) Sire: Sea The Moon (GER) Dam: Diablerette (GB)
Trainer: Robert Hickmont (Mount Macedon) Jockey: Rachel King 52.5kg Barrier:1
Record: 19:3-7-1 Prizemoney:$336,109 1st Up: 5:0-2-0 2nd Up: 5:2-2-0
Rick says..
Hasn’t produced a win in Australia in 4 attempts.
From the Lloyd Williams Mount Macedon stable who know what it takes to win a cup.
Not this year.
16. GRAND PROMENADE (GB)
6 year old bay gelding (1-3-2016) Sire: Champs Elysees (GB) Dam: Zacchera (GB)
Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace (Caulfield) Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy 52kg Barrier:21
Record: 19:8-4-2 Prizemoney:$1,009,800 1st Up: 3:0-1-1 2nd Up: 3:0-1-1
Rick says..
This bloke doesn’t put a foot wrong!
His jockey Kerrin McEvoy has won three Melbourne Cups.
He ran second in the Andrew Ramsden here over 2800M carrying 58.5 kgs and gets in here with 52 kilos.
If there was to be an upset, he could be the one.
17. MIAMI BOUND (NZ)
5 year old bay mare (7-11-2016) Sire: Reliable Man (GB) Dam: Arapaho Miss
Trainer: Danny O'Brien (Flemington) Jockey: Patrick Moloney 52kg Barrier:17
Record: 26:5-0-5 Prizemoney:$1,672,200 1st Up: 6:1-0-1 2nd Up: 5:1-0-0
Rick says..
Has placed a couple of times over the staying trips though is not going well enough.
18. PORT GUILLAUME (FR)
5 year old bay gelding (29-3-2017) Sire: Le Havre (IRE) Dam: Keira (FR)
Trainer: Ben & JD Hayes (Flemington) Jockey: Harry Coffey 52kg Barrier:23
Record: 10:4-0-0 Prizemoney:$308,688 1st Up: 3:2-0-0 2nd Up: 3:1-0-0
Rick says..
Won the Group 2 Prix Hocquart over 2500M last year.
Not going well enough.
19. SHE’S IDEEL
6 year old bay mare (5-10-2015) Sire: Dundeel (NZ) Dam: Ana’s Mail
Trainer: Bjorn Baker (Warwick Farm) Jockey: Craig Newitt 52kg Barrier:20
Record: 25:6-6-5 Prizemoney:$1,101,075 1st Up: 5:0-2-2 2nd Up: 5:0-2-1 Rick says..
Rick says..
Finished off OK in the Caulfield Cup.
Unsure about the 3200M.
20. FUTURE SCORE (IRE)
5 year old bay gelding (29-3-2017) Sire: Le Havre (IRE) Dam: Keira (FR)
Trainer: Ben & JD Hayes (Flemington) Jockey: Harry Coffey 52kg Barrier:23
Record: 10:4-0-0 Prizemoney:$308,688 1st Up: 3:2-0-0 2nd Up: 3:1-0-0
Rick says..
The listed Cranbourne Cup is his biggest success here so he won’t be troubling this field.
21. TRALEE ROSE (NZ)
5 year old bay mare (13-10-2016) Sire: Tavistock (NZ) Dam: Star of Tralee
Trainer: Symon Wilde (Warrnambool) Jockey: Dean Holland 51kg Barrier:12
Record: 15:6-4-2 Prizemoney:$744,725 1st Up: 3:1-0-1 2nd Up: 3:1-1-1 Rick says..
Rick says..
Loved the way she attacked the line in the Geelong Cup.
She has Zabeel in her bloodlines which suggests she will get the trip even though her Adelaide Cup run was below par.
I things she can push for the exacta position and run the race of a lifetime.
22. FLOATING ARTIST (GB)
6 year old bay or brown gelding (29-2-2016) Sire: Nathaniel (IRE) Dam: Miss Kenton (IRE)
Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace (Caulfield) Jockey: Teodore Nugent 50kg (a) Barrier:10
Record: 16:5-2-1 Prizemoney:$479,018 1st Up: 6:2-0-0 2nd Up: 5:1-1-0
Rick says..
He ran a bottler in the Moonee Valley Cup, a race that has produced Melbourne Cup winners.
He is one I took in early doubles, so I will be silently cheering.
Definite lightweight hope.
23. GREAT HOUSE (IRE)
5 year old bay gelding (28-12-2016) Sire: Galileo (IRE) Dam: Anja (IRE)
Trainer: Chris Waller (Flemington) Jockey: Michael Dee 50kg Barrier:7
Record: 15:5-2-3 Prizemoney:$694,290 1st Up: 3:1-1-1 2nd Up: 3:2-0-1
Rick says..
Won the Hotham Handicap on Saturday however it was an inferior edition this year.
Top 10 chance given the low weight.
24. SIR LUCAN (IRE)
4 year old bay horse (24-2-2018) Sire: Camelot (GB) Dam: Sparrow (IRE)
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott (Flemington) Jockey: Glen Boss 50kg Barrier:18
Record: 8:2-1-0 Prizemoney:$152,926 1st Up: 4:0-1-0 2nd Up: 3:2-0-0
Rick says..
Northern Hemisphere youngster who is with the Waterhouse/ Bott stable.
An unknown at this level so may be one to throw into your exotics.
History says
Horses need to be able to stay the journey and have a turn of foot over the final 300 metres. Those who have won at their last start have a great winning record in the Cup
Lightweights have an advantage over the 3200M.
Speed
Knights Order should take up the running with Twilight Payment and Delphi tucking in behind him.
Grand Promenade will come across from the outside draw and try to find some cover.
Melbourne Cup Tips
Incentivise
Tralee Rose
Floating Artist
Spanish Mission
Best roughie: Grand Promenade
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13/10/21 David Gately tips & early predictions for the Melbourne Cup |
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Date
November 2
Distance
3200m
Track
Flemington
Class
Handicap
2020 winner
Twilight Payment ($26)
Our look at David Gately's early tips for the Spring Carnival concludes with Australia's most famous race: the Melbourne Cup.
The famous two-mile handicap on the hallowed turf of Flemington is the pinnacle of the carnival. For punters, there's always plenty of value up for grabs in the Cup, especially in the futures markets.
With that in mind, let's see what David Gately says about the race...
Melbourne Cup tips
REALM OF FLOWERS
Good thing licked in the Sydney Cup for mine then total dominance at Flemington in the Andrew Ramsden.
She can sustain real speed at the end of marathon trips and will not be harshly weighted.
DAWN PATROL
Lightly-raced Galileo in the right stable to win this race. Just missed in G3 in his last overseas start with True Self (won Queen Elizabeth) behind him in third.
Good building runs in Australia and looks set for the race.
INCENTIVISE
No reason to say he won’t run 3200m given sustained speed/excellence on the clock at end of 2400-2500m.
But the distance is an unknown, and he will also have a weight penalty if he wins the Caulfield Cup.
PONDUS
Good second to True Self in the Queen Elizabeth and has had the preparation over here. Also, has been in great form back home since then.
Like Dawn Patrol, from the key Hickmott/Williams stable.
Melbourne Cup odds for the all-in market
Runner
Win $
Incentivise
$5
Spanish Mission
$8
Twilight Payment
$11
Away He Goes
$15
Explosive Jack
$15
Grand Promenade
$15
Verry Elleegant
$15
Realm Of Flowers
$17
Dawn Patrol
$26
Pondus
$26
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Melbourne Cup Tips from leading tipsters 2020 |
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Melbourne Cup tip from Rick Morris
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Melbourne Cup Tip Flemington Race 7 #13 Surprise Baby $9.50
Whilst there were a couple of hard luck stories in last year's Melbourne Cup, this crowd favourite was one who had to come from last and wide out on the home turn.
He produced a withering sprint to go down by under a length.
The Paul Presker trained gelding was charging home that day and he has drawn a much better in barrier 7 this year.
He has had the perfect preparation, having only two starts since that Melbourne Cup and he was getting home hard again second-up in the Turnbull Stakes.
That effort showed he is in tip top condition and it will be no surprise to see him produce the run of a lifetime.
Now with the services of last year's Cup winning jockey Craig Williams, expect him to settle a touch closer this time. When we're in the straight and horses are starting to drop off, watch for Williams to be steering his way through the field and coming home at a rate of knots.
His superior turn of foot and ability to run two miles are the main reasons I expect Surprise Baby to win the 2020 Melbourne Cup.
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Melbourne Cup tip from Jaycin Campbell
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Melbourne Cup Tip Flemington Race 7 #13 Surprise Baby $9.50
The baby returns and is back for revenge in the 2020 Melbourne Cup, after finishing fifth beaten 0.9 lengths last year.
On that occasion, he drew barrier 20 of 24 and was asked to round the entire field up. It was an almighty effort as he lengthened a stride down the outside in doing so, running the fastest last 200m of the race.
His preparation this year has been less hyped, but I believe he is going just as well and if not better.
I'm expecting a bold run in what is a strong Cup!
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Melbourne Cup tip from Ben Beare
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Melbourne Cup Tip Flemington Race 7 #21 Tiger Moth $7.00
The international with a light-weight fits the profile of recent successful Melbourne Cup runners.
The booking of Kerrin McEvoy suggests he's the best of the internationals and he'll be very hard to beat.
Lightly raced with only four career starts, but he's clearly a stayer with above average ability.
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Melbourne Cup tip Adrian Sciglitano
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Melbourne Cup Tip Flemington Race 7 #11 Prince of Arran $12.00
In what is an open race with multiple chances over the famous Flemington two miles, I’ll swing the way of the Charlie Fellowes trained eight-year-old Prince of Arran.
The now Australian regular lines up in his third Melbourne Cup, after going agonisingly close on both occasions when third behind Cross counter in 2018 before finishing runner-up to Vow And Declare last year.
He looks to have come to Australia in career best form, having run fourth in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) only beaten a narrow 1.95-lengths behind Verry Elleegant.
His run was full of merit with the gelding able to reel off the best closing sectionals from the 800m mark, including a rapid closing burst of 11.92. This confirms that he is going better than ever.
He arrives on Cup day at peak fitness, with an identical set up which has seen him in the finish in the past.
He is proven at the 3200m (9:1:2:2), loves Flemington (3:1:1:1) where he is yet to miss a placing and all his Australian form (7:2:2:2) rates well enough to win this year’s Melbourne Cup.
He has drawn perfectly in barrier 1 to do no work in the run and they have found premiership leading Jockey Jaime Kah to take the ride, in what looks a match made in heaven.
He has the correct lead up, brings exceptional form to this year’s Melbourne Cup and can’t do anything but run well.
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Best Bet from Kurt Burns
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Melbourne Cup Tip Flemington Race 7 #21 Tiger Moth $7.00
It's hard to go past the internationals in the big one, with little-to-no weight on their backs.
The booking of Kerrin McEvoy is a positive, as he's the best staying rider in Australia in my opinion.
He's drawn a sticky gate (23), but that just means we get a better price!
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Melbourne Cup tip Lewis Willoughby
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Melbourne Cup Tip Flemington Race 7 #11 Finche $20.00
Keen to be with Finche in the 2020 Melbourne Cup, a horse who hasn't had a lot of luck this preparation but continues to race very well.
He comes into the Cup this year fourth-up, most recently finishing fifth behind Verry Elleegant in the Caulfield Cup over 2400m.
He was yet again caught three wide without cover in that race, just as he has been in every single start so far this prep.
He managed to box on very gallantly to finish only 2.5 lengths off the winner, and the way he kept fighting back through the line indicates he is a horse who is giving his all and will be very competitive up in trip now.
Rock hard fit, the booking of James McDonald is a big push within itself.
From barrier 6, I expect him to finally be able to race with cover in a position just behind the speed.
He started as favourite in the Cup last year and was only beaten 1.4 lengths on the line, so you know he is proven at the distance and intensity of a Melbourne Cup tilt.
He definitely has the scope to turn the tables on a number of rivals, and I'm happy to play him each way.
My boxed first four numbers are 1/5/11/13/19/21
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Best Bet from Dean Watling
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Melbourne Cup Tip Flemington Race 7 #21 Tiger Moth $7.00
What an outstanding edition of the Melbourne Cup, which shapes to be a cracker.
Tiger Moth is the horse I'm keen to be with. Despite having a few things against him come Cup Day, he has an untapped ability which I can't resist.
He is looking to take out the Cup in only his fifth career start, bringing the phenomenal northern hemisphere three-year-old form line.
Recent Melbourne Cup champs Cross Counter (2018) and Rekindling (2017) came here with the same profile, which speaks volumes.
What I'm most impressed by is the horse's progression in his short career.
His run in the Irish Derby back in June was outstanding, where he showed a dynamic turn of foot carrying 58.5kg to run a bold second to Santiago. That galloper then went on to run 2.25 lengths off Stradivarius in the Goodwood over 3218m. That is the right form.
Tiger Moth then went to a new level in his next start, taking out a Group 3 over 2414m by 4 lengths, exploding away from his rivals.
He'll combine with three time Melbourne Cup winner Kerrin McEvoy, which is a huge plus.
He will need a perfect ride from barrier 23, but the key to this horse is his elite acceleration which will enable him to get out of any tricky situations.
My first 4 selections are Tiger Moth, Surprise Baby, Verry Elleegant, Prince Of Arran
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3/11/20 Melbourne Cup Lays of the Day |
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On Derby Day we potted Octane at the $2.80 short quote, when the horse was never sighted and saved the blushes of punters who follow this column.
For Cup Day, we have found another Flemington runner that looks well under the odds as he tackles the Flemington straight again and appears unsuited by the low draw.
At Randwick, a skinny priced three-year-old colt faces a tough task to reel in the leaders off an expected slow tempo.
Flemington Race 1 #1 Ingratiating $2.40
He will be short across all totes due to the Godolphin factor and being the first favourite of the day, hence is likely to be artificially compressed from a price angle.
The debut win here at Flemington was good, however he was soft in the market ($9 out to $12) and not expected to race that well which indicates he is no superstar.
On Derby Day, the inside section of the track appeared to be least preferred for straight racing with the last winner (Fiesta) coming down the outside.
If this pattern plays out again on Tuesday, this horse will be unsuited by the inside draw in gate 2.
I expect a significant market drift late and for a wave of money to arrive for Marine One. Lay.
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Randwick Race 1 #2 Kermanding $2.40
Looks a good colt, however surely the poison $2.40 must be avoided at his first try out to 1800m.
He won at Kembla last start when racing well back in the field, before charging late.
However, that was against a rubbish field in maiden grade and this is a big step-up in class.
He is likely to race back in the field as per his normal pattern and I expect them to crawl here, with an advantage for those sprinting off the front.
There is certainly enough against to be risking him at the skinny odds on this occasion. Avoid.
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Melbourne Cup tips 2020: A brutally honest assessment of your horse |
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You will read a lot of positive comments about every runner in the 2020 Melbourne Cup.
However, the reality is there are only a handful of horses that have a genuine chance of winning.
To cut through the noise and get to the gist, I've rated each runner and provided you with my brutally honest assessment of your horse's chances in the big race.
1. ANTHONY VAN DYCK (3)
Was enormous in the Caulfield Cup, where he drew barrier 17 and made a long-sustained run with 58.5kg to finish within 0.2 lengths of Verry Elleegant.
He meets her 0.5kg better at the weights for this, but more importantly has drawn perfectly in barrier 3.
Hugh Bowman will be better for the one ride on him, but he'll need to be at his best given this is the first time he's raced over the two-miles.
He's the best horse in the race but under handicap conditions and with plenty of class lining up, I can't see him saluting.
#WeightStopsTrains
Bookies Price: $8
Rated Price: $17
2. AVILIUS (10)
Hasn't won since the George Main Stakes over 1600m in September of 2019.
His only attempt at the race came in 2018, which was a complete pen job.
I don't think he runs a strong 3200m and would be shocked if he finished in the top 10.
#MayNeedADefibrillator
Bookies Price: $51
Rated Price: $101
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3. VOW AND DECLARE (4)
The defending champ who has been going like a busted since last year's victory.
Has lost the services of Craig Williams, then Damien Oliver jumped off which leaves Jamie Mott with the ride.
He's proven over the 3200m, loves Flemington but will be forced to lug an extra 5kg this year.
#NeedsAMiracle
Bookies Price: $51
Rated Price: $101
4. MASTER OF REALITY (11)
Was relegated to 4th in last year's Melbourne Cup after a Frankie Dettori horror show.
He was flogged by Twilight Payment (8 lengths) three runs back, but has bounced back with some decent runs since.
I doubt he gets a picnic in front this year and I can't see him running top 10.
#RealityCheck
Bookies Price: $26
Rated Price: $51
5. SIR DRAGONET (14)
Was so impressive winning the Cox Plate.
Glen Boss is looking for his fourth Melbourne Cup victory and knows what it takes to get the job done on the first Tuesday in November.
Appears to love rain affected going and won't get that this time around.
#Bossy
Bookies Price: $9
Rated Price: $15
6. TWILIGHT PAYMENT (12)
Led them up in last year's Cup, but lacked the turn of foot when needed.
Going as well as ever but I just can't see him improving on last year's effort.
This looks a more competitive field, so I'll let him go through to the keeper.
#TooSlow
Bookies Price: $34
Rated Price: $51
7. VERRY ELLEEGANT (15)
Was very impressive in the Caulfield Cup and rises to the 3200m for the first time.
That came on a favourable Soft 6 surface, which she won't get on Tuesday.
Her record of six Group 1 wins is phenomenal but she looks vulnerable over the two-miles for the first-time, especially on a dry track.
#PrayForRain
Bookies Price: $14
Rated Price: $21
8. MUSTAJEER (2)
Is running up to his best, but he looks seriously outclassed.
Ran 23 of 24 in a weaker edition of the Cup last year and is once again making up the numbers.
#AmbulanceChaser
Bookies Price $101
Rated Price $201
9. STRATUM ALBION (9)
Willie Mullins brings this eight-year-old plodder down under.
He'll run out the 3200m and has no issue on a dry track.
The problem is, he looks as 'slow as a wet week'.
#GoHomeWillie
Bookies Price: $46
Rated Price: $101
10. DASHING WILLOUGHBY(19)
Ran last in the Caulfield Cup and would need to improve out of sight to run top 10.
He'll give a great sight for 2400m, before popping like a balloon.
#LacksSaidDash
Bookies Price: $101
Rated Price: $101
11. FINCHE (6)
Now at his third Melbourne Cup and hasn't finished any better than fourth in the great race.
The long-term booking of James McDonald suggests Chris Waller has him set to jump out of the ground.
Can take a forward position and will have no issues with a dry track. Top 5.
#Peaking
Bookies Price: $18
Rated Price $18
12. PRINCE OF ARRAN (1)
Put in an eye-catching run in the Caulfield Cup, flashing home from back in the field.
She looked the winner at the 50m mark last year and loves the Flemington two-miles.
The in-form Jamie Kah takes the ride and can get the best out of this horse.
Huge chance!
#WalkerOff
Bookies Price: $12
Rated Price: $10
13. SURPRISE BABY (7)
This has been his target since running an unlucky fifth last year.
With any luck, there will be some pace put into the race and he can use his turn of foot to fight out the finish.
Barrier 7 is perfect and so is the booking of Craig Williams.
Best of the Aussies!
#NoSurprisesHere
Bookies Price: $9
Rated Price: $9
14. KING OF LEOGRANCE (18)
Ran well in the Geelong Cup, finishing third behind Steel Prince and beating Ashrun home.
Drops 4.5kg from that run and is a winner over 3200m. Will relish the dry track and is a genuine top 10 chance.
Barrier 18 is less than ideal and he'll need the speed on to run home well.
#BGrader
Bookies Price: $51
Rated Price: $41
15.RUSSIAN CAMELOT (16)
Was game in a gruelling Cox Plate and ticked plenty of boxes.
The booking gun jockey Damien Oliver suggests the stable are confident he'll handle the rise to 3200m.
My concern is the rock-hard surface, given he looks more effective on a rain affected deck.
#LeaveTheSprinklersOn
Bookies Price: $13
Rated Price: $15
16. STEEL PRINCE (21)
The winner of the Geelong Cup, who ran 9th in the Cup last year.
Barrier 21 suggests he'll be ridden from the rear and if that's the case, I doubt he can match it with the A-Grader's.
#NeedsToLift
Bookies Price: $41
Rated Price: $61
17. THE CHOSEN ONE (5)
Was given no chance from the back off a slow speed in last year's Melbourne Cup and can improve.
He's since put in a huge run in the Caulfield Cup, finishing 3rd behind Verry Elleegant.
He's a genuine top 10 chance, but won't be winning.
#Next
Bookies Price: $41
Rated Price: $41
18. ASHRUN (24)
Needed the run in the Geelong Cup and was then ultra-impressive in the Hotham on Saturday.
Reports are that he's recovered well from the run. He drops 8kg for this and is reaching peak fitness.
If the pace is on, he has the ability to round most of these up in the straight.
#SneakyHope
Bookies Price: $23
Rated Price: $12
19. WARNING (8)
The winner of last year's Victoria Derby, who hasn't saluted since.
He's drawn perfectly in barrier 8 for this, but just lacks the class of his rivals.
#WarningCan'tWin
Bookies Price: $51
Rated Price: $51
20. ETAH JAMES (22)
Couldn't get close to Miami Bound in the Moonee Valley Cup, losing out by 4 lengths.
Her best effort isn't likely to see her run top 20.
#Dud
Bookies Price: $201
Rated Price: $201
21. TIGER MOTH (23)
Has all the marks of a Melbourne Cup winner. Strong European staying form, carries only 52.5kg and has an elite trainer.
The booking of Australia's best big-race jockey Kerrin McEvoy is a huge push that the horse is top-class.
The barrier draw stinks, but if anyone can overcome it, McEvoy can.
The horse dead-set picks himself!
#WinnerWinner
Bookies Price: $8
Rated Price: $7
22. OCEANEX (17)
Was towelled up by Miami Bound in the Moonee Valley Cup and just isn't up to these.
This is his first run over 3200m and from what we've seen this prep, he's making up the numbers.
#GetInTheSea
Bookies Price $81
Rated Price: $101
23. MIAMI BOUND (13)
Produced a big win last week in really good time.
Barrier 13 is ideal and I think she can sit more forward in the run and be poised to strike.
She was dominant in the VRC Oaks at this track last year and while this is a big step up, it wouldn't surprise to see her run a career peak.
With a soft run in transit, I can see her running top 5.
#AussieAussieAussie
Bookies Price: $41
Rated Price $15
24. PERSAN (20)
Impressed in the Bart Cummings and loves the Flemington track.
The draw is a dead-set disaster, but I think they'll push the button and send him forward.
Unproven over the 3200m and looks a few levels below the best.
#DoubtIt
Bookies Price: $41
Rated Price: $61
Melbourne Cup Tips
1st Tiger Moth
2nd Suprise Baby
3rd Prince Of Arran
4th Miami Bound
Every punter and tipster from Australia's racing media who posts Melbourne Cup tips appears on our dedicated page ranked by their profit. Read more
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