You will read a lot of positive comments about every runner in the 2021 Melbourne Cup, but the reality is there are only a handful of horses that have a genuine chance of winning.

To cut through the noise and get to the gist, we have rated each runner and provided you with a brutally honest assessment of your horse's chances in the big race.

 

 1. TWILIGHT PAYMENT (5)

The dominant all the way winner of last year's Melbourne Cup.

Produced a career peak in that run but is forced to carry an extra 3kg this year.

Looks like there's more pressure up front this year, so I'm happy to oppose. Can run top 10.

#WeightStopsTrains

Current Price $14

Rated Price $24.60

 

 2. INCENTIVISE (16)

The clear top rated runner. His win in the Caulfield Cup was elite!

Looks as though the 3200m is right up his alley so he could easily produced a career peak.

Barrier 16 is a massive concern. You'll have 23 other jockeys doing their best to ensure he doesn't slot in.

If Prebble finds cover, you can join the queue, if he doesn't, it could feel like the longest 3 minutes of your life.

The best horse by a long way, but needs an assertive ride.

#Freak

Current Price $2.50

Rated Price $2.90

 

 3. SPANISH MISSION (14)

Overseas raider, who has elite form lines, running 0.2-L 2nd behind Stradivarius.

But the question is, how good is Stradivarius actually going???

He failed a vet check last week, which is a serious concern and his form lines could be misleading.

I've taken a set against him, many will not!

#MissionImpossible

Current Price $9.00

Rated Price $37.00

 

 4. VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ) 

Ran a strong 7th from the back last year, but must carry an extra 1.5kg.

Gets J-Mac which is a huge plus and she will run out the 3200m.

If they go too fast up front, she can blouse them late.

#NeedForSpeed

Current Price $15

Rated Price $20.80

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 5. EXPLOSIVE JACK (4)

Draws a good gate and trained by probably the best staying trainers in Australia.

Beaten some 14-lengths in the Caulfield Cup after suffering interreference.

Does best work on soft ground, won't get that this time and looks outclassed.

#PopNoBoom

Current Price $51

Rated Price $665

 6. THE CHOSEN ONE (5)

Prior to his Caulfield Cup failure you could have found a spot for him in your top 4.

But that run was awful, with no real excuses for mine.

Can't possibly back him off that effort. 

#Lift

Current Price $61

Rated Price $73

 

 

Watch Michael Gannon and Dean Watling's early bets for Melbourne Cup week!

 

 7. DELPHI (3)

Another who flopped in the Caulfield Cup, but this one I'll be forgiving given it was on a Soft 6.

His runs prior were great and he now returns to a Good 3 surface, where he produced a career peak two back.

D Oliver sticks, which is a big push that he'll be able to bounce back.

Draws to do no work and can easily run a career peak.

#UnderTheRadar

Current Price $51

Rated Price $20.80

 

 8. OCEAN BILLY (13)

Like his name suggests, he likes it wet. 

But even if rain did come, his career best wouldn't see him run top 10.

#GetInTheSea

Current Price $101

Rated Price $106.20

 

 9. SELINO (24)

Love what the great man Chris Waller has done with this bloke.

He exploded with a career peak last preparation when 5th up in the Sydney Cup with Ron Stewart aboard.

Like clock work, he arrives here 5th up with Stewart booked to ride.

He's produced better figures this rep than last and as crazy as it seems, could easily produce a big run.

#WillSurpriseYou

Current Price $101

Rated Price $30.20

 

 10. JOHNNY GET ANGRY (22)

Give this guy a 10-length head start and he'd probably get beaten by half the field.

Not sure how much of a thrill it would be to see your horse get lapped, but each to their own.

#Spell

Current Price $101

Rated Price $999

 

 11. KNIGHTS ORDER (9)

Flopped on Saturday, which is not the ideal set-up.

Produced good figures to win Brisbane Cup on a dry track.

Blinkers come off and a repeat of his last 3200m run has him running top 10, but gee Saturday's effort was poor.

#OutOfOrder

Current Price $151

Rated Price $106

 

 12. PERSAN (11)

Comes from an astute yard and did run a cracking 5th in this race last year.

Lead up ratings aren't as good as last year, which suggest to me he'll peak here.

Was beaten 5.3-lengths by Incentivise, but meets him 1.5kg better at the weights and is drawn for a softer run.

Can close that gap and if the favourite has a horror run, then he can figure in the finish. 

#SetToPeak

Current Price $35

Rated Price $17.50

 

 13. CARIF (8)

Will run the 3200m out, but not quickly enough.

Great to see young Blaike McDougall get a ride, but this horse won't be winning.

#Next

Current Price $301

Rated Price $83.70

 

 14. MASTER OF WINE (6)

Like many before him, promised the world and has since delivered an atlas

#Pinooooooooooooooot

Current Price $101

Rated Price $139

 

 15. PONDUS (1)

He was average in the Moonee Valley Cup, but is from the right yard.

Rachel King rides well and from the inisde draw, he'll get a good run in transit.

Doubt he's good enough to be winning, but will give you a sight 

#PonderThat

Current Price $41

Rated Price $18.10

 

 16. GRAND PROMENADE (21)

Gets Kerrin McEvoy who wins this race for fun.

Astute stable and jockey, but doubt he'll overcome the draw and go to a new level.

#NotSoGrand

Current Price $20

Rated Price $45

 

 17. MIAMI BOUND (17)

Ran a bottler in the Sydney Cup over 3200m and blinkers go on first time.

If they overdo it in front, she can run into a place. Like Selino, over the odds and worth a place ticket.

#CrownBound

Current Price $151

Rated Price $41

 

18. PORT GUILLAUME (23)

Hasn't acclimatised since landing in Australia. Best O.S form is enough to run okay, but haven't seen that yet.

#WelcometoStrayaMate

Current Price $151

Rated Price $182

 

19. SHE’S IDEEL (20)

It won't be ideal if you draw her in the sweep.

Well below these

#LessThan

Current Price $101

Rated Price $141

 

20. FUTURE SCORE (15)

Rated to his career best run and is still $81.

#LimitedFuture

Current Price $301

Rated Price $81

 

21. TRALEE ROSE (12)

Has had a much better prep compared to when she tackled the 3200m in the Adelaide Cup.

Geelong Cup win was good and she peaks for this.

#Something

Current Price $17

Rated Price $17.50

 

 22. FLOATING ARTIST (10)

Clear second-pick!

Is deadest flying and should have won at both his last starts. Could easily jump out of the ground!

Teo retains the ride after two shockers. This is what dreams are made of Teo! 

#LiftNowTeo

Current Price $18

Rated Price $9.50

 

 23. GREAT HOUSE (7)

Was impressive on Saturday, but had race run to suit.

Loses J-Mac, which is a negative. Draws well and can be thereabouts.

#GoodHouse

Current Price $26

Rated Price $28.20

 

 24. SIR LUCAN (18)

Ticks the box of Southern Hemisphere 3YO. 

Boss loves the big stage, but the horse would need to grow a leg off overseas ratings.

Happy to let him go around without me. 

#Unders

Current Price $26

Rated Price $45.50

 

Melbourne Cup Tips

1. Incentivise
2. Floating Artist
3. Persan
4. Tralee Rose