Melbourne Cup tips 2020: A brutally honest assessment of your horse

You will read a lot of positive comments about every runner in the 2020 Melbourne Cup.

However, the reality is there are only a handful of horses that have a genuine chance of winning.

To cut through the noise and get to the gist, I've rated each runner and provided you with my brutally honest assessment of your horse's chances in the big race.

 

1. ANTHONY VAN DYCK (3)

Was enormous in the Caulfield Cup, where he drew barrier 17 and made a long-sustained run with 58.5kg to finish within 0.2 lengths of Verry Elleegant.

He meets her 0.5kg better at the weights for this, but more importantly has drawn perfectly in barrier 3.

Hugh Bowman will be better for the one ride on him, but he'll need to be at his best given this is the first time he's raced over the two-miles. 

He's the best horse in the race but under handicap conditions and with plenty of class lining up, I can't see him saluting.

#WeightStopsTrains

Bookies Price: $8

Rated Price: $17

 

2. AVILIUS (10)

Hasn't won since the George Main Stakes over 1600m in September of 2019.

His only attempt at the race came in 2018, which was a complete pen job. 

I don't think he runs a strong 3200m and would be shocked if he finished in the top 10.

#MayNeedADefibrillator

Bookies Price: $51

Rated Price: $101

 

 

3. VOW AND DECLARE (4)

The defending champ who has been going like a busted since last year's victory. 

Has lost the services of Craig Williams, then Damien Oliver jumped off which leaves Jamie Mott with the ride. 

He's proven over the 3200m, loves Flemington but will be forced to lug an extra 5kg this year. 

#NeedsAMiracle

Bookies Price: $51

Rated Price: $101

 

4. MASTER OF REALITY (11)

Was relegated to 4th in last year's Melbourne Cup after a Frankie Dettori horror show. 

He was flogged by Twilight Payment (8 lengths) three runs back, but has bounced back with some decent runs since.

I doubt he gets a picnic in front this year and I can't see him running top 10.

#RealityCheck

Bookies Price: $26

Rated Price: $51

 

5. SIR DRAGONET (14)

Was so impressive winning the Cox Plate.

Glen Boss is looking for his fourth Melbourne Cup victory and knows what it takes to get the job done on the first Tuesday in November. 

Appears to love rain affected going and won't get that this time around.

#Bossy

Bookies Price: $9

Rated Price: $15

 

 

6. TWILIGHT PAYMENT (12)

Led them up in last year's Cup, but lacked the turn of foot when needed.

Going as well as ever but I just can't see him improving on last year's effort. 

This looks a more competitive field, so I'll let him go through to the keeper.

#TooSlow

Bookies Price: $34

Rated Price: $51

 

7. VERRY ELLEEGANT (15)

Was very impressive in the Caulfield Cup and rises to the 3200m for the first time. 

That came on a favourable Soft 6 surface, which she won't get on Tuesday.

Her record of six Group 1 wins is phenomenal but she looks vulnerable over the two-miles for the first-time, especially on a dry track.

#PrayForRain

Bookies Price: $14

Rated Price: $21

 

8. MUSTAJEER (2)

Is running up to his best, but he looks seriously outclassed.

Ran 23 of 24 in a weaker edition of the Cup last year and is once again making up the numbers.

#AmbulanceChaser

Bookies Price $101

Rated Price $201

 

9. STRATUM ALBION (9)

Willie Mullins brings this eight-year-old plodder down under.

He'll run out the 3200m and has no issue on a dry track.

The problem is, he looks as 'slow as a wet week'.

#GoHomeWillie

Bookies Price: $46

Rated Price: $101

 

10. DASHING WILLOUGHBY(19) 

Ran last in the Caulfield Cup and would need to improve out of sight to run top 10. 

He'll give a great sight for 2400m, before popping like a balloon. 

#LacksSaidDash

Bookies Price: $101

Rated Price: $101

 

11. FINCHE (6)

Now at his third Melbourne Cup and hasn't finished any better than fourth in the great race. 

The long-term booking of James McDonald suggests Chris Waller has him set to jump out of the ground.

Can take a forward position and will have no issues with a dry track. Top 5.

#Peaking

Bookies Price: $18

Rated Price $18

 

12. PRINCE OF ARRAN (1)

Put in an eye-catching run in the Caulfield Cup, flashing home from back in the field. 

She looked the winner at the 50m mark last year and loves the Flemington two-miles.

The in-form Jamie Kah takes the ride and can get the best out of this horse.

Huge chance!

#WalkerOff

Bookies Price: $12

Rated Price: $10

 

13. SURPRISE BABY (7)

This has been his target since running an unlucky fifth last year. 

With any luck, there will be some pace put into the race and he can use his turn of foot to fight out the finish.

Barrier 7 is perfect and so is the booking of Craig Williams.

Best of the Aussies!

#NoSurprisesHere

Bookies Price: $9

Rated Price: $9

 

14. KING OF LEOGRANCE (18)

Ran well in the Geelong Cup, finishing third behind Steel Prince and beating Ashrun home. 

Drops 4.5kg from that run and is a winner over 3200m. Will relish the dry track and is a genuine top 10 chance.

Barrier 18 is less than ideal and he'll need the speed on to run home well.

#BGrader

Bookies Price: $51

Rated Price: $41

 

15.RUSSIAN CAMELOT (16)

Was game in a gruelling Cox Plate and ticked plenty of boxes. 

The booking gun jockey Damien Oliver suggests the stable are confident he'll handle the rise to 3200m.

My concern is the rock-hard surface, given he looks more effective on a rain affected deck. 

#LeaveTheSprinklersOn

Bookies Price: $13

Rated Price: $15

 

16. STEEL PRINCE (21)

The winner of the Geelong Cup, who ran 9th in the Cup last year. 

Barrier 21 suggests he'll be ridden from the rear and if that's the case, I doubt he can match it with the A-Grader's.

#NeedsToLift

Bookies Price: $41

Rated Price: $61

 

17. THE CHOSEN ONE (5)

Was given no chance from the back off a slow speed in last year's Melbourne Cup and can improve. 

He's since put in a huge run in the Caulfield Cup, finishing 3rd behind Verry Elleegant. 

He's a genuine top 10 chance, but won't be winning.

#Next

Bookies Price: $41

Rated Price: $41

 

18. ASHRUN (24)

Needed the run in the Geelong Cup and was then ultra-impressive in the Hotham on Saturday. 

Reports are that he's recovered well from the run. He drops 8kg for this and is reaching peak fitness. 

If the pace is on, he has the ability to round most of these up in the straight.

#SneakyHope

Bookies Price: $23

Rated Price: $12

 

19. WARNING (8)

The winner of last year's Victoria Derby, who hasn't saluted since.

He's drawn perfectly in barrier 8 for this, but just lacks the class of his rivals.

#WarningCan'tWin

Bookies Price: $51

Rated Price: $51

 

20. ETAH JAMES (22)

Couldn't get close to Miami Bound in the Moonee Valley Cup, losing out by 4 lengths.

Her best effort isn't likely to see her run top 20.

#Dud

Bookies Price: $201

Rated Price: $201

 

21. TIGER MOTH (23)

Has all the marks of a Melbourne Cup winner. Strong European staying form, carries only 52.5kg and has an elite trainer.

The booking of Australia's best big-race jockey Kerrin McEvoy is a huge push that the horse is top-class.

The barrier draw stinks, but if anyone can overcome it, McEvoy can.

The horse dead-set picks himself!

#WinnerWinner

Bookies Price: $8

Rated Price: $7

 

22. OCEANEX (17)

Was towelled up by Miami Bound in the Moonee Valley Cup and just isn't up to these.

This is his first run over 3200m and from what we've seen this prep, he's making up the numbers.

#GetInTheSea

Bookies Price $81

Rated Price: $101

 

23. MIAMI BOUND (13)

Produced a big win last week in really good time.

Barrier 13 is ideal and I think she can sit more forward in the run and be poised to strike.

She was dominant in the VRC Oaks at this track last year and while this is a big step up, it wouldn't surprise to see her run a career peak.

With a soft run in transit, I can see her running top 5.

#AussieAussieAussie

Bookies Price: $41

Rated Price $15

 

24. PERSAN (20)

Impressed in the Bart Cummings and loves the Flemington track. 

The draw is a dead-set disaster, but I think they'll push the button and send him forward.

Unproven over the 3200m and looks a few levels below the best.

#DoubtIt

Bookies Price: $41

Rated Price: $61

 

 Melbourne Cup Tips

1st Tiger Moth

2nd Suprise Baby

3rd Prince Of Arran

4th Miami Bound

 

Every punter and tipster from Australia's racing media who posts Melbourne Cup tips appears on our dedicated page ranked by their profit.