Lay Betting Tips: Who to avoid on the punt 12/7/25

Another lays masterclass from resident tipping expert Jimmy Beeson last week with both Warnie and Oh Too Good getting rolled at disgustingly short quotes.

This week, we take on two red-hot favourites at Caulfield, both of whom appear significantly over-bet and vulnerable at their current prices.

Early in the day, we’re against a Ciaron Maher-trained 2YO who was visually impressive on debut, but now draws barrier 1 and may face pressure or positioning issues if unable to lead.

Later on, cult hero ‘The Bear’ is deep into his prep and may not be as effective around Caulfield’s tighter turning circuit, especially given his draw and potential speed-map traffic.

Avoid both runners at their current short prices in betting.

Horse Racing Lays on Saturday 12/7/25

Caulfield Race 1 #2 Signature Spirit $2.10

Signature Spirit was an eye-catcher on debut when winning impressively at Bendigo, but that was on a big spacious track and things may not fall into place quite as easily around Caulfield’s tighter layout.

She now draws gate 1 and while that’s typically a plus, it could prove problematic if she’s crossed early.

With several other capable horses in this deeper field, she may lack the race-day maturity to handle being cluttered or forced to extricate from traffic.

As a young 2YO with limited ringcraft, the requirement to hold position early or risk being boxed in makes her a tactical risk, especially at a compressed quote driven by the visual win last start.

Look for the professional betting syndicates to be firmly against her late if the speed map doesn't align.

Avoid.

Caulfield Race 4 #2 Jimmy The Bear $1.60

Going to pot “The Bear”, who comes up poison odds at this stage of his prep, having already strung together multiple tough efforts.

He’s been up a while now and may be close to the end of his campaign, despite his back-to-back wins at Flemington which are sure to fuel mug money support.

From gate 3, they’ll likely feel the need to push forward to avoid being crossed, but there’s plenty of speed from Pounding and Make It Sweet.

If he’s forced to take a sit or gets cluttered, he may find himself off his ideal rhythm.

Caulfield’s layout and this speed map scenario don’t suit his style.

Even if he’s good enough on class, the setup presents enough tactical negatives to mark him down as a significant lay.

Access more betting tips for Saturday racing here.