06/03/21 Best Bets for Newmarket Handicap & Australian Cup
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- Author: James BeesonMar 05, 2021 11:55 AM
- Photo: AAP
Super Saturday Specials
Super Saturday at Flemington features two hot Group 1 Races with the Newmarket Handicap and WFA Australian Cup taking centre stage.
In the Newmarket, a gun filly looks to have a stranglehold on the race. After searching for angles to bet around her, I simply can't find any and must be with her even at the short quote.
Whilst in the Australia Cup, I have found one from the shrewd Waller camp who have a knack of getting them to peak for these big Group 1 races. I expect them to race a touch closer on this occasion and that should make all the difference.
Track Conditions
The Flemington track is currently rated a Good 4, with the rail out 5m for the entire circuit.
Fine conditions are predicted for the remainder of the week and on race day.
Typically at "HQ", the run-on profiles are suited and hence being midfield (or worse) with cover and getting a nice tow in could be preferred.
Track pattern may be a key factor on Saturday and punters should be mindful of adjusting their strategy if any bias is evident early.
Flemington Race 6 - Newmarket Handicap 1200m (G1 Hcp)
The Map
There looks to be good speed here, with the noted front runners sure to make it a true contest. Those down in the weights who have the ability to go forward will be applying plenty of early pressure.
Expect Indian Pacific (3), Prague (16) and Sirius Suspect (14) to all rush forward, with the former the most likely to be leading them all down the straight.
The run-on profiles tucked in behind should be advantaged here and these include Swats That (18), Elite Street (11), September Run (8) and Zoutori (4).
Those racing further back can also come into it given the right "tow", and the best hopes from the tail should be Imaging (5), Celebrity Queen (6) and Prophets Thumb (2).
The Favourite
September Run ($2.30) loves the straight (4:3-0-0), where she has never missed a place and simply thrives with the set up.
She kicked off the campaign last start with a slashing run here in the Black Caviar Lightning when charging late over the 1000m.
It was just a touch too short for her here last time and the step-up to 1200m is perfect.
The price is no spoil, however she does look to have a stranglehold on this race and could start shorter. Must go on top.
Best Racing Tips
I'm strongly in the corner of gun filly September Run with no weight (54kg).
She is an excitement machine, oozes class and maps perfectly here. Clear on top pick.
Swats That is another with plenty of quality and off the hot tempo should also receive every chance from a midfield position with cover.
He has a big boom on him and has not quite had the chance to show his true colours. This is the big stage and the stable will have him primed.
Elite Street was well supported first-up here in the Lightning and did come on well from a long way back, in a race dominated by the first few in running.
Expect a faster tempo here to suit, as will the step up to 1200m. He could be the big improver.
If they go absolutely mad up front, Imaging could be the one storming home over the top of them all late.
He has not been far away in stakes level at his past two starts and is right in this.
The Waller camp are simply too shrewd in these flagship Group 1 races, and he looks big odds here at $16.
1st September Run
2nd Swats That
3rd Elite Street
4th Imaging
Flemington Race 8 - Australia Cup 2000m (G1 WFA)
The Map
Homesman (14), Paradee (1) and Miss Siska (5) should all press forward here, with Homesman (14) the most likely to take up the running.
I would prefer to be with the midfield run-on profiles in this race, who can blend into the race and present in clean air midway down the straight.
These midfield profiles include Nonconformist (16), Fifty Stars (3), Defibrillate (4) and Shared Ambition (2). Those horses can all find premier positions around midfield with cover.
The back-marker profiles will need a solid tempo and if the speed goes on, look for Humidor (12), Steel Prince (11) and Warning (15) to be charging at the leaders late.
The Favourite
Fifty Stars ($4.60) has an excellent fitness platform now, following two solid efforts this campaign with the latest a slashing run here in the Blamey Stakes at Group 2 level.
He could not have been more impressive over 1600m here last start, when he flew late and was very strong through the line.
This race does not appear a vintage Australia Cup and given the depth is lacking, he must be a serious player.
Best Racing Tips
Shared Ambition appears to get the good tempo to suit and has the "Waller factor".
He was very good first up winning at Randwick, then arrived in Melbourne to only just miss (2 of 10) in key lead up race the Peter Young Stakes.
Ticks plenty of boxes and it would not surprise to see them hold a midfield position on this occasion.
Expect Fifty Stars to be very popular following the ultra-impressive run in the Blamey.
He won this race last year and profiles in a similar fashion in the lead up on this occasion.
Looks short enough now but does have serious claims. Leading hope.
Nonconformist is right on track following excellent lead up runs in the Peter Young Stakes and Carlyon Cup, where he was supported in betting on both occasions.
Rock hard fit now, he can be last man standing if they go fast.
Must include Defibrillate, who has won his past four and deserves a crack at the "A graders" in a big Group 1 race.
He has reeled off some jaw dropping sections at his past few and those numbers do stack up with the elite horses entered here.
Given even luck, there is no reason why he can't be fighting out the finish.
1st Shared Ambition
2nd Fifty Stars
3rd Nonconformist
4th Defibrillate
