26/02/22 Randwick Tips for Surround Stakes & Chipping Norton Stakes

Randwick hosts the first Sydney Group 1's of the Autumn, with the running of the Surround Stakes and Chipping Norton Stakes this Saturday.

Punters have a cracking 10-race card to dive into.

There are two Group 2 races for the 2YO's early in the day, followed by the Group 3 Liverpool City Cup and the Group 2 Guy Walter for mares.

Track Conditions

The surface at Randwick is currently rated a Heavy 8, with the rail in the true position for the entire circuit.

At this set up, runners drawn midfield who can land in the running line will be at an advantage.

Randwick Race 7 - Chipping Norton Stakes 1600m (Group 1)

The Map 

• Kolding (7) can go forward and find the front, with Maximal (1) likely to push forward underneath.
• Think It Over (8) will need to be ridden positively and looks set to sit one out one back.
• Verry Elleegant (4) has drawn ideally and can sit three pairs back with Collette (3) underneath her.
• Of the runners, the only others that could potentially look to sit first half of the field would be Angel Of Truth and Mount Popa.

The Early Favourite $2.80 > $3.80

Think It Over ($3.80) was dominant first-up but has his back against the wall here.

He opened a short-priced favourite in all-in markets, but with the rain about and the chance of some regression second-up, the bookies are willing to take him on.

He'll get a peach of a ride from Nash, who will be hoping Angle Of Truth and Mount Poppa don't inject pressure in the race.

The Heavy track is my biggest query, but if he drifts beyond $5.50 and the track is drying out, he quickly becomes a bet.

Best Racing Tips 

Verry Elleegant opened a false favourite last start and wasn't suited from the inside draw over 1400m.

Put simply, she was more like a $21 shot at that set-up, especially considering she was coming of a Melbourne Cup preparation.

That said, the mile 2nd up could be deemed unsuitable as well. However, given the forecast of a Heavy 9-10 track, the 1600m will race more like 1800-2000m.

Clearly the best horse in the race and her wet track ratings suggest that she's the best wet tracker in the race.

Her second-up stats read 7:4-1-0, winning her past two second-up runs both over the Randwick Mile.

She got gifted a beautiful soft draw where she can land three pairs back in the running line. This will give her every possible chance to conserve energy before exploding at the top of the famous Randwick rise.

Collette was huge first-up and relishes Heavy tracks, with a 3:3-0-0 record.

Her second-up record is sound, but the main concern is her position in the run.

Drawn barrier 3, look for J-Mac to keep Tim Clark in a pocket for the majority of the run. 

Think It Over had his chances reduced significantly when the heavens opened. He's in career best form and if the track can make it's way back to a Soft 7, he's a huge show. 

1. Verry Elleegant
2. Collette 
3. Think It Over

Randwick Race 8 - Surround Stakes 1400m (Group 1)

The Map 

• Never Been Kissed (9) and Four Moves Ahead (18) should land in front, setting a moderate tempo.
• This moderate tempo will really favour those who can sit on-speed in the running line, such as Heresy (6), Sweet Ruby (5) and Tilianam (10).
• Favoured runners Espiona (13) and Fangirl (16) will both have a stack of work to do from back in the field. 

 

The Favourite

Espiona ($2.00) was backed if unbeatable last start, when defeated by stablemate Fangirl.

Punters are buttering up again, even though she has drawn worse this time around.

Her ratings second-up last prep, where through the roof, which has her the top rated runner.

She maps horribly and if they go to slow, she'll need a smart J-Mac ride to win.

Given she has a strong turn of foot, her chances further increase with any scratchings and the positive is, we know she handles rain affected going.

When it's all said and done, will there be better $2 shots to bet on this week? My word there will be...

 

Best Racing Tips 

Heresy gets the dream run from barrier 6 and will get first crack at the leaders. She's a query on the rain affected going, but that's a risk I'm willing to take on a $31 shot.

Her last start effort was fantastic, when finishing 1.81 lengths off Fangirl. She was blocked for a run at a crucial stage and could have finished much closer.

This looks a different race shape to my eye, I think the leaders will carve out only moderate sectionals, allowing this filly to sprint on the turn and give the favourites something to catch.

Fangirl drawn barrier 16, Bowman will be forced to once again stalk J-Mac on Espiona. I think Espiona will have to roll forward at some stage between the 800-400m which will give Hughie the perfect trail into the race.

Espiona is the best horse in the race, but will have to step up. She most definitely can, but I don't want to take $2 in hoping the pace is on and or J-Mac produces the ride of the day. 

 

1. Heresy 
2. Fangirl 
3. Espiona