27/02/21 Randwick Tips for Chipping Norton & Surround Stakes
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- Author: Joshua ReedFeb 25, 2021 04:44 PM
- Photo: AAP
Crack card assembled
We head to Royal Randwick on Saturday for Chipping Norton Stakes Day, with a jam-packed nine race card giving punters plenty to get excited about.
The two main events are the Group 1 Chipping Norton Stakes and the Group 1 Surround Stakes for the three-year-old fillies.
Supporting the feature clashes are the Group 2 Skyline Stakes for the two-year-old colts and geldings, Group 2 Sweet Embraces for the two-year-old fillies as well as the Guy Walter for the mares.
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Track Assessment
At this stage, the Randwick track is rated a Soft 6. However with bad weather ominous for Sydney in the lead-up and on race day, punters can expect the surface to either remain in the Soft range or be downgraded to a Heavy.
Recent meetings here have favoured those horses positioned on-pace as a general rule, but it will pay to watch the first few races closely.
Randwick Race 6 - Group 1 Chipping Norton Stakes 1600m
The Map 
This looks a very similar race layout to when the majority of these horses last met two weeks ago in the Apollo Stakes.
Prince Fawaz (1) will look to take up the running from the inside barrier, with Kolding (2) keeping him company.
Funstar (5) has drawn a similar barrier and will likely sit behind these two, or sit outside the leader and give Kolding a cart into the race.
Verry Elleegant (4) and Toffee Tongue (6) will settle behind this group, as will the Apollo Stakes winner Colette (8) who may have to settle behind them on this occasion.
Look for Avilius (7) and Southern France (3) to settle at the rear of the field.
This leaves Master of Wine (9), who I expect to go straight to the rear of the field.
The Favourite 
Verry Elleegant ($2.60) has come up the favourite here and rightly so after her last start effort.
The Zed mare came out of the gates a touch awkward in the Apollo Stakes and when James McDonald went to improve her position, she wanted to keep going and fought McDonald before settling.
When they all started to get into gears, she had to come off the heels of Funstar so that she could maintain her momentum, but it was too late.
I expect her to reverse the result on Colette, given this time she won't be doing the chasing.
Although rain suits them both, Verry Elleegant is the better of the two and on an even playing field, she is the one that looks more likely.
Analysis and Tips 
For the reasons mentioned above, Verry Elleegant ($2.60) is my pick for the big race.
Avilius ($16.00) is a solid place chance first-up and if the track plays like it has in the past, he isn't the worst bet to run top 3.
Randwick Race 7 - Group 1 Surround Stakes 1400m
The Map
This is an intriguing race from a map perspective, as many of the on-pace runners are drawn mid-field or worse.
Every Rose (16) will push forward from her wide alley and you can expect Away Game (14) to peel across with her.
Vangelic (8) will apply early pressure from her mid-field draw and make the outside runners do some more work.
I expect Elizabeel (13) to drive forward in an attempt to secure a nice spot, along with Dame Giselle (9).
With Nash Rawiller aboard, Forbidden Love (3) will make use of the good draw and don't be surprised to see Thermosphere (5) push up and hold a better than mid-field spot.
La Mexicana (10) is usually forward also, but the tricky draw could make or break her race.
With the pace on, runners like Montefilia (11), Hungry Heart (17) and Never Talk (7) are going to relish the speed and are likely to camp themselves a touch worse than mid-field.
The remaining runners have a chance to make it harder for these other runners but regardless, they don't make it into my top 4.
The Favourite
It's a big surprise to me that Dame Giselle ($4.80) has come up the favourite in a wide open race.
The daughter of I Am Invincible was only fair in the Inglis 3Y.O, where she was comfortably beaten by Rocketing By.
I do concede that her runs last preparation in the Silver Shadow and Furious Stakes were good, but I wanted to see more from her returning this preparation.
The jump to 1400m is a concern, especially from where she is drawn.
It will take an inch perfect ride by Tommy Berry to get her home in this one.
Analysis and Tips
I've sided with a runner who is massive overs and can produce a sneaky run stepping up in distance.
Thermosphere ($18.00) is coming off two impressive outings, where she wasn't entitled to go as well as she did.
First-up she tackled some fit and genuine 1200m horses and she had the nerve to get within half a length of them in the finish.
Her last start in the Light Fingers was very good, considering where she was drawn and the work she did early on.
Nash Rawiller decided to send her forward to settle in third, before attempting to make a big run outside of Every Rose.
Nash decided to go to the inside initially, before switching back to outside of the filly where she got into a tussle with Away Game.
By then, the early work she did started to tell, yet she still managed to finish under two lengths off the winner and less than half a length from finishing in the top four.
She gets a good gate here and Rachel King will take the ride so I am expecting a huge finish, especially since she will get a better run throughout.
How she is this price is beyond me!
For a list of all the tipsters who have posted Randwick tips for Saturday's racing meet, checkout the dedicated page at theGreatTipOff.com.
