Lay Betting Tips: who to avoid on the punt 23/11/24

It was another classic weekend of Jimmy Beeson's Saturday Lays with both short favourites getting rolled.

This week’s lay selections focus on two runners that appear to be severely overbet based on recent performances, where punters have latched on and compressed their prices.

At Kembla Grange, a last-start winner from the Godolphin stable has been well-supported in the market, despite having to travel back from Melbourne to face a deep field of seasoned competitors.

Meanwhile at Cranbourne, a mare coming off a luckless run last start has seen her odds heavily backed by punters.

However, her price looks inflated and appears to be driven by recreational money rather than genuine value.

Horse Racing Lays on Saturday

Kembla Grange Race 3 #4 Pisanello $2.80

There’s a clear case of recency bias here, with Pisanello heavily backed throughout the week after a strong last-start win.

That victory was the result of a significant stable tip, as the horse had reportedly been working well at home.

However it’s often amateur punters who dive in at rock-bottom odds after an initial betting move, and this appears to be one such occasion.

The memory of that recent win is likely fresh in the minds of recreational backers.

Pisanello faces a field of seasoned competitors here and from gate 1 he’s likely to find himself buried well back on the inside in a tricky speed map scenario.

By the time he gets clear to run on, the leaders could already be off and gone.

At the current price which feels artificially compressed due to his recent heroics, he looks poor value.

Avoid.

Cranbourne Race 10 #8 Oh Too Good $1.50

Oh Too Good is another runner coming up at poison odds in a tricky race.

While she’s dropping in grade, this will be her first run at the Cranbourne circuit which can be a challenging track to navigate for newcomers.

Her last start at Flemington was commendable, placing 2nd in a field of 16 despite encountering trouble throughout the run.

However, the market tends to overrate such luckless performances and this appears to be the case here.

It’s also worth noting that her Flemington run was likely the stable’s primary target, with the mare set to peak for that performance.

This follow-up race feels high-risk, as she may now be over the top and heading in the wrong direction.

At the current prohibitive odds, she looks a lay.

I expect her price to drift back towards $2 as professional punters weigh in closer to race time.

Access more betting tips for Saturday racing here.