Melbourne Cup Tips 2020: horse by horse preview

 1. ANTHONY VAN DYCK (3)  $8.50

Trainer: Aidan O'Brien Jockey: Hugh Bowman 58.5kg Age: 5YO
Record: 18:6-4-3 Prizemoney:$4,090,099

Manley says: Class act who put in a huge run in the Caulfield Cup at his Australian debut, where he ran home strongly from a long way back.

Shapes as if 3200m will suit, but he hasn’t raced over 2400 metres and his dam is by sprinting influence Exceed And Excel.

 

What the trainer said (Aidan O’Brien’s travelling foreman TJ Comerford): Anthony Van Dyck is an English Derby winner and is a class horse, but he has to give a lot of weight away to Tiger Moth. He’s in good condition though.

 

 2. AVILIUS (10)  $51

Trainer: James Cummings Jockey: John Allen 57kg Age: 7YO
Record: 32:11-3-4 Prizemoney:$3,430,835

Manley says: He didn’t have a lot of luck in the Caulfield Cup, as he was held up in the straight and charged home to finish sixth when he got clear air.

Needs it wet though to produce his best. He finished 22^nd two years ago, but forget that run as he almost fell coming out of the straight the first time.

 

What the trainer said: “He’s not a two miler but Melbourne Cup are often won by horses that aren’t necessarily two milers. He can relax and he’s raced like a true stayer this time in and he’s got the acceleration you need to win a Melbourne Cup.”

 

 

 3. VOW AND DECLARE (4)  $51

Trainer: Danny O'Brien Jockey: Jamie Mott 57kg Age: 6YO
Record: 19:4-3-3 Prizemoney:$5,875,930

Manley says: He’s striving to become one of the immortals and make it two Melbourne Cups in a row.

Last year he was ridden superbly by Craig Williams, who took him to the front in the early stages from barrier 21. This time he has barrier 4, but has to carry 5kgs more. He’s not without a chance.

 

What the trainer said: “He’s fit and very well. I’m expecting an improved run on a dry track over 3200 metres. I’m confident he’ll run well.”

 

 4. MASTER OF REALITY (11)  $26

Trainer: Joseph O'Brien Jockey: Ben Melham 56kg Age: 6YO
Record: 17:4-3-2 Prizemoney: $691,100

Manley says: He finished second in last year’s Melbourne Cup, but was relegated to 4th after a protest.

Last start winner of a listed race at Down Royal. Lead-in form not as strong as last year. Place at best.

 

What the trainer said (Joseph O’Brien’s travelling foreman Mark Power): “He's in perfect condition. We’ll probably roll forward from there. Horses outside of us, Miami Bound and Sir Dragonet, we probably couldn’t ask for a better draw.”

 

 5. SIR DRAGONET (14)  $10 

Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace Jockey: Glen Boss 55.5kg Age: 5YO
Record: 10:3-4-0 Prizemoney: $3,641,570

Manley says: His Cox Plate win reeked of class and also of that of a horse who is crying out for more ground. He had a nice run in transit, but he surged clear in the straight and was strong after the line.

Has Glen Boss on who is aiming for a fourth Melbourne Cup. He was only a length behind Anthony Van Dyck in the 2018 English Derby. One of the best chances.

 

What the trainer said: “I’m rapt with him. He’s ready to go. He’s our number one seed.

 

 6. TWILIGHT PAYMENT (12)  $26

Trainer: Joseph O'Brien Jockey: Jye McNeil 55.5kg Age: 8YO
Record: 30:7-10-6 Prizemoney:$858,071

Manley says: Irish visitor who worked across from an outside draw to lead last year and then tired.

His lead-in form is better at home with two wins at the Curragh followed by a third in the Irish St Leger.

 

 7. VERRY ELLEEGANT (15)  $11

Trainer: Chris Waller Jockey: Mark Zahra 55.5kg Age: 5YO
Record: 24:11-5-1 Prizemoney: $6,896,044

Manley says: Six-time Group One winner who is Australia’s best stayer.

She’s in superb form with wins in the Turnbull Stakes and the Caulfield Cup at her last two starts.

She shrugged off Anthony Van Dyck’s challenge in the Caulfield Cup, which underlines how good she is. One of the best chances.

 

What the trainer said: “The Caulfield Cup is traditionally the best form race for the Melbourne Cup and she won that race. She shouldn’t have any problems with the distance.”

 

 8. MUSTAJEER (2)  $81

Trainer: Kris Lees (Newcastle) Jockey: Michael Rodd 55kg Age: 8YO
Record: 29:5-5-3 Prizemoney: $1,965,726

Manley says: Wasn’t disgraced in the Caulfield Cup, but he’d be a major surprise. Finished 23^rd last year.

 

What the trainer said: “He has trained on well in Melbourne and he will go into the race a fit horse.”

 

 9. STRATUM ALBION (9)  $41

Trainer: Willie Mullins Jockey: Jordan Childs 55kg Age: 8YO
Record: 29:6-8-2 Prizemoney: $642,372

Manley says: Encouraging run last start when second in the Lonsdale Cup after a series of jumps races. That’s often a good lead-in race and Willie Mullins as he showed with Max Dynamite is astute when tackling this race.

 

What the trainer said (Willie Mullins' foreman Dave Casey): “We’ve been delighted with him. He did his last work yesterday. He’s got a decent enough draw so hoping for a bit of luck with him on Tuesday.”

 

 10. DASHING WILLOUGHBY(19)  $81

Trainer: Andrew Balding Jockey: Michael Walker 54.5kg Age: 5YO
Record: 14:4-2-1 Prizemoney: $387,346

Manley says: Shocker in the Caulfield Cup when he finished last after leading. His previous form at home was strong, including a win over 3,264 metres at Sandown Park over Cross Counter. Possible improver at odds. Maybe one for a first four.

 

What the jockey said: “He’s improved a lot body wise and physically. He will run his true race.”

 

11. FINCHE (6)  $17

Trainer: Chris Waller Jockey: James McDonald 54.5kg Age: 7YO
Record: 18:4-1-5 Prizemoney: $1,295,266

Manley says: He’s racing really well. Only inches away from Verry Elleegant when third in the Turnbull Stakes, and then didn’t have a lot luck when seventh behind her in the Caulfield Cup after being trapped wide.

Only 1.4 lengths away in last year’s Melbourne Cup when seventh, where he also didn’t have things go his way. He won’t be far away.

 

What the trainer said: “Finche hasn’t had much luck in his two Melbourne Cup runs. The effort told last year, when he just had to do a bit too much work and, from memory, it wasn’t much better the year before.”

 

 12. PRINCE OF ARRAN (1)  $10

Trainer: Charlie Fellowes Jockey: Jamie Kah 54.5kg Age: 8YO
Record: 44:6-8-8 Prizemoney: $3,117,440

Manley says: Enormous run in the Caulfield Cup, as he gave away a huge start and flew home out wide. He produced the fastest last 200m of the race, coming home in 11.92 seconds which was also the 11^th fastest for the day.

Also, he’s finished third and second in this race over the past two years.

 

What the trainer said (Charlie Fellowes' foreman Aleed Beech): "Barrier one gives Jamie more options and makes life easier. It’s better than drawing out as we have for the past two years. He’s feeling great in himself.”

 

 13. SURPRISE BABY (7)  $9

Trainer: Paul Preusker Jockey: Craig Williams 54.5kg Age: 5YO
Record: 13:5-2-1 Prizemoney: $998,735

Manley says: Been out of sight up in Horsham and he also hasn’t started since the Turnbull Stakes when he finished on strongly.

Huge run in last year’s Melbourne Cup, when he should have won. He’s a better horse a year later and has Craig Williams on. He’s the one to beat.

 

What the trainer said: “He’s a more mature and furnished horse. In the Turnbull Stakes, Craig said he settled on the fence which is something he’s never done before and it gives us another string to our bow. He’s got the miles in his legs.”

 

 14. KING OF LEOGRANCE (18)  $41

Trainer: Danny O'Brien Jockey: Damian Lane 53.5kg Age: 6YO
Record: 15:5-3-3 Prizemoney:$588,038

Manley says: Danny O’Brien will have him spot on for this. He was in the wrong spot and possibly ran out of condition when third in the Geelong Cup.

He won the Adelaide Cup third-up last preparation over 3200 metres. Looks over the odds.

 

What the trainer said: “He’s improved out of the Geelong Cup where he needed the run. He’s proven over 3200m and he’ll run well.”

 

15.RUSSIAN CAMELOT (16)  $13

Trainer: Danny O'Brien Jockey: Damien Oliver 53.5kg Age: 4YO
Record: 9:4-3-1 Prizemoney: $1,466,225

Manley says: He’s an exciting proposition. He had a tough run in the Cox Plate, when he worked forward and that run will have brought him on for this.

His best win was in the SA Derby, when they rode him conservatively which is the plan here. He’s right in the race.

 

What the trainer said: “He couldn’t be better. He’s thrived since his tough run in the Cox Plate. I think two miles will suit him. He’ll settle mid-field and should be able to finish on strongly. He’s my number one seed.”

 

 16. STEEL PRINCE (21)  $34

Trainer: Anthony & Sam Freedman Jockey: William Pike 53.5kg Age: 7YO
Record: 26:9-5-3 Prizemoney:$1,064,412

Manley says: Tough win in the Geelong Cup last start and he’s in better form than last year, when he finished ninth. Shouldn’t be too far away from the action.

 

What the trainer said: “He hasn’t missed a beat since his Geelong Cup win. He’ll need some luck from the barrier but we’ve got a good rider on him.”

 

 17. THE CHOSEN ONE (5)  $41

Trainers: Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman Jockey: Daniel Stackhouse 53.5kg Age: 5YO
Record: 26:6-3-2 Prizemoney: $1,315,509

Manley says: Put in almost the best run of his career when third in the Caulfield Cup.

He finished second in the Sydney Cup earlier this year and he’s trained by a canny Kiwi trainer. He finished 17^th last year. Place claims.

 

What the trainer said: “He has performed well over the journey before, including finishing second in the Sydney Cup (Gr.1, 3200m) this year. This is a couple of levels up, but it does give you confidence knowing that he should be somewhere in midfield and near the rail getting a good run if we can use that barrier draw. He’s spot on and should get every chance.”

 

 18. ASHRUN (24)  $20

Trainer: Andreas Wohler Jockey: Declan Bates 53kg Age: 5YO
Record: 13:4-2-1 Prizemoney:$315,819

Manley says: Sprinted in the 11^th fastest last 400 metres to gain a run in this with his win in the Hotham carrying 61kgs.

In most years, that would catapult him right into calculations but this is a strong Melbourne Cup. He won’t be far away.

 

What the trainer said: “He recovered really well and he’s eaten up since Saturday. The way he ran yesterday then he should have a chance of being in very good money.”

 

 19. WARNING (8)  $41

Trainer: Anthony & Sam Freedman Jockey: Luke Currie 53kg Age: 4YO
Record: 16:2-1-3 Prizemoney: $1,507,900

Manley says: He runs his best races at Flemington and his sixth in the Turnbull Stakes was an eye-catcher, before a disappointing run in the Caulfield Cup. Could bounce back, but may need it wet.

 

What the trainer said: “He’s been working well. He’s sound, fit and well.”

 

 20. ETAH JAMES (22)  $101

Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace Jockey: Billy Egan 52.5kg Age: 8YO
Record: 32:8-2-1 Prizemoney: $1,248,994

Manley says: Not disgraced when fourth in the Moonee Valley Cup in a better run. She won the Sydney Cup three starts ago over 3200 metres. Still, this looks a big task.

 

What the trainer said: “She’s dappled up and looking really great. She’s improved since the Moonee Valley Cup and she’s really coming to hand. She’ll run a big race.”

 

 21. TIGER MOTH (23)  $8.50

Trainer: Aidan O'Brien Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy 52.5kg Age: 3YO
Record: 4:2-1-1 Prizemoney:$352,409

Manley says: He’s following in the Cross Counter and Rekindling blueprint, as he’s a northern hemisphere three-year-old taking on this race with no weight.

Two starts ago, he finished second in the Irish Derby before he won at Group 3 level at Leopardstown last start. He’s the one to beat.

 

What the trainer said (Aidan O’Brien's foreman TJ Comerford): “Tiger Moth is drawn 23, so he’ll have to be able to negotiate from out there - I’m sure Kerrin McEvoy will have a plan.”

“We probably don’t know enough about the three-year-old, really, but I do know that he’s going well enough while here and he’s doing everything right and he’s enjoying himself - he’s fresh and he’s well and he’s fit. I just think they’re two good chances.”

 

 22. OCEANEX (17)  $71

Trainer: Mick Price & Michael Kent (Jnr) Jockey: Dean Yendall 51.5kg Age: 5YO
Record: 22:6-4-4 Prizemoney: $721,970

Manley says: Rounded off her preparation for the Melbourne Cup with a sound third in the Moonee Valley Cup, where she was left in front too early.

She won a start in this with her victory in the Andrew Ramsden Stakes in May. Last year’s Ramsden form stood up in the Melbourne Cup. Place claims.

 

What the trainer said: “We’ve had the luxury of knowing she was in the Cup and she’ll peak on the day. She loves Flemington and the distance should suit. She should finish in the top half of the field.”

 

 23. MIAMI BOUND (13)  $34

Trainer: Danny O'Brien  Jockey: Daniel Moor 51kg Age: 4YO
Record: 14:5-0-2 Prizemoney: $1,228,000

Manley says: It was a strong and authoritative win in the Moonee Valley Cup, which signalled a return to form.

Does she need it wet? Or, is she right back to her best which may not be good enough anyway? Not for me.

 

What the trainer said: “She’s flying. She was super at Moonee Valley and she’s going as well as any of my other horses. She won the Oaks on a good track at Flemington and I think 3200 metres will be a big plus for her.”

 

 24. PERSAN (20)  $34

Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace Jockey: Michael Dee 51kg Age: 4YO
Record: 19:6-4-1 Prizemoney: $656,971

Manley says: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace have had this stayer in all year and taken him from maiden grade into a Melbourne Cup.

He’s got to have a place chance.

 

What the trainer said: “He’s got a beautiful weight. He’s ready for it.”

 

Manley's Melbourne Cup Tips

1st Surprise Baby

2nd Tiger Moth

3rd Russian Camelot

4th Verry Elleegant

 

Next best chances: Sir Dragonet, Anthony Van Dyck, Prince Of Arran, Vow And Declare, Ashrun

Best roughie: King Of Leogrance