30/11/19 Ascot Racing tips and best bets: Winterbottom Stakes

The one million dollar Winterbottom Stakes always attracts a number of east coast sprinters, who have endured long preparations and are looking to stretch their capacity here.

In contrast, many of the key local horses seem to specifically target the race and therefore arrive with a much more timed profile. 

I expect the fresher runners to be more suited in this race and am with one who arrives third-up after a five week break.

 Race Ascot Track Traits

The Ascot surface is currently rated a Good 4, with the rail out 4m the entire circuit and fine conditions predicted for Saturday.

Given the rail position and the drying track, there may be a slight preference to race on-speed. 

As always, a close watch is advised early to determine any fast lanes or bias. 

 Racing Market Movers

Stageman has been well supported early, firming from an opening $15 quote to now trade at $9. 

Race favourite Trekking remains rock solid at $2.80, after touching a low of $2.60.

 Key Runners

#1 Trekking $2.60 > $2.80

Looks very skinny odds at the current $2.80, however certainly looks the best horse in the race. 

He was excellent in the Everest when placing 3 of 12, and then backed that up with a close second last time out in the Redzel Stakes.

The concern here is that he gets buried back along the inside and will have to come around them all. 

I can't deny his class, but can't have him at the price considering he's deep in his prep and has some challenges to overcome. 

#3 Hey Doc $15

Was supported late ($7.50 into $6.00) first-up, when finishing 3 of 8 in the Kevin Heffernan at Sandown.   

He is one on the fresher side and can take good improvement from the return run.

The stable must have him going very well at home, to be travelling and entering at this level. Very wary.   

#5 Home Of The Brave $18

Was also close-up (2 of 8) in the Kevin Heffernan, when he raced close to speed before just missing.

He has been up for a while now and has less potential for improvement than others. Avoid. 

#7 Viridine $15

Has the services of Damien Oliver, who is always highly motivated to perform well in his home town. 

From gate 7, they should find a midfield position with cover and if the speed goes on he will be charging late.

He needs the race run to suit with a genuine tempo up front. 

#8 Valour Road $11

Is a well fancied local hope, with strong Perth and Adelaide form. 

Second-up is good and with a few of the high profile hopes now deep in their preparation, this fresher profile can surprise. 

Expect them to show good intent to find a forward position and from there, he should be very hard to run down. Top hope. 

#9 Endless Drama $21

Will suck up along the inside for a long way and just needs the breaks to come when extricating in the straight. 

He has Te Akau Shark form from two starts back in NZ, where he beat that horse at Group 2 level. 

If they overdo it up front, he could well be "last man standing". Watch betting late for a lead.   

#10 Vital Silver $8.50

Was excellent last start in the Manikato Stakes (2 of 11) behind Loving Gaby, which is form that should hold up here.

The five week freshen is perfect and he arrives less stale than many of his rivals who have been in work over a much longer time-frame.

Maps well from gate 6 and has a serious jockey in Ben Melham aboard. Goes on top. 

#12 Stageman $15 > $9.00

Has been selected by the West's best rider William Pike as his Winterbottom ride, which is an excellent lead in itself.  

The horse has been up for a very long time now and I am happy to oppose based on this.

Fresh could be best on this occasion and although the jockey/owner combination is powerful, you'll likely be taking unders due to their high profile. No.

#13 Flirtini $10

Has won her past two starts at Group 2 level here in the west, and now faces her Group 1 acid test.  

Although the wins have been impressive, I expect that she'll struggle to make the leap in grade and is an excellent risk from the wide draw in gate 12. No. 

Of The Others

#14 Misty Metal should push forward and although she appears outclassed, her on-pace profile is very valuable if they crawl.

If the track is favouring the leaders expect her to surprise a few at odds here. 

With all the Group 1 races in Perth over coming weeks, our Ascot tips page is a must to visit. It shows media form experts and pro punters with tips at Ascot alongside their validated profit statistics.