Saturday racing Lays of the Day 24 November 2018
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- Author: James BeesonNov 22, 2018 06:59 PM
One Up, One Down & Both Unders
This week we feature two lay selections that are at polar opposites of the class trajectory.
One is making the leap to stronger grade and faces significant challenges, whilst the other is dropping back down from ultra top level and will encounter difficulty for different reasons.
Both should be avoided at their current quote in betting. Lay.
Rosehill Race 4 #2 Sky Boy $3.30
Expect a cricket ball to smash into Skyboy’s picket fence here, where he is forced to jump up in grade again to benchmark 88 level.
The three win picket fence will sucker plenty of the mug punters in, without considering the level of depth in the race.
Many of his rivals here have performed at stakes level including Savacool, Etymology, Fierce Impact and Astoria.
That alone is a significant challenge for a horse that has not been beyond benchmark grade.
Most speed maps have the field only crawling along at a moderate tempo. However, riders will be keen to find a position close to speed and in a moving line, considering the nature of the Rosehill 1800m and tight home turn.
Expect them to go faster than predicted, which won’t favour the likely leaders, including Skyboy.
No doubting he looks a horse with upside, however the price looks well under the odds and a market drift is expected as we approach start time. Avoid.
Ballarat Race 10 #1 Jungle Edge $5.50
With no rain predicted I have to take on the favourite in the last here, who looks a mugs bet at the current $5.50.
Granted he holds a class edge on most of these, however there is plenty against in this including a Good 4 surface and wide draw (gate 12).
He has been able to overcome a wide gate in the past, however on this occasion there is blistering speed drawn inside.
Both Working From Home and Chamois Road are likely to punch up underneath, and there will be further pressure wider from Snitzcraft.
This will make it awfully difficult for Jungle Edge to take up his preferred on-speed dictating role.
Weight also looks a massive negative for him here, after being asked to lump 62.5kg (59.5kg post claim).
When you tally up all the hurdles he will almost need a miracle to be winning this. Lay.
