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Caulfield Finish5

10/10/20 Caulfield Tips and best bets

  • Lewis-Willoughby-0224.png
  • Author: Lewis Willoughby
    Oct 08, 2020 05:03 PM
  • Photo: AAP
Tagged: Caulfield, Best bet tips, Lewis Willoughby

Best Plays for Guineas Day

The Caulfield carnival lifts off on Saturday, with a marathon 10 race card scheduled for Caulfield Guineas Day. 

A mouth watering four Group One races await punters, on what looks an outstanding afternoon of racing in Melbourne. 

The track is currently rated a Good 4 and with some showers predicted on Friday, we could see the track downgraded into the Soft range. 

The rail is true the entire circuit and at this set-up, the track should play fairly as it has been in recent meetings. 

 

theGreatTipOff.com · Horse Racing Tips at Caulfield from Lewis Willoughby 10 October 2020

 

Caulfield Race 2 Tip #3 Swats That $2.20

Swats That comes into the Group 3 Thoroughbred Club Stakes third-up, following an impressive win in the Group 3 Champagne Stakes at The Valley.

The filly was forced to sit three wide on speed for that entire race, and was also forced to work soon after the jump.

She ran the fastest 1000m - 800m and 800m - 600m sectionals of the race, which demonstrates how much petrol she used up early.

Despite the tough trip, she dropped the field in an instant after entering the straight and was eased down over the line for a very dominant victory.

Even more impressive was the fact that she ran the second fastest closing sectional of the race, which also rated very well for the meeting. 

Her run first-up down the Flemington straight has proven to be a very strong form-line, as the winner September Run has saluted again and is now one of the favourites for the Coolmore Stud Stakes. 

Peak fit now and sticking to the same grade and distance, she looks to map perfectly in behind the speed from barrier 7 in a one out position. When presented, expect her to take care of this field. 

Swats That

 

Caulfield Race 7 Tip #3 Instant Celebrity $3.50 

Instant Celebrity is aiming to go from a debut victory as a two-year-old to a Group 1 winner as a three-year-old, all in her first prep of racing.

Such is the high opinion I have of this horse, I expect her to do what most horses would find near impossible. 

Third-up now from a freshen, the filly was very strong winning last start in the Group 2 Tranquil Star over 1400m here at Caulfield. 

She settled off the speed, came widest on the turn and rounded up the field with ease. She then held her winning margin late through the line in what was a very impressive Melbourne debut. 

She returns to Caulfield here and steps out to the 1600m for the first time. Based on her racing style, the mile will be very suitable for her. 

Expect her to get back in the field again here, but there looks to be a genuine speed set up front by the likes of Night Raid, Vangelic and Love Sensation. 

This strong tempo will set it up for her perfectly back in the field, and the rail position will give her ample space to come wide and storm over the top of them. 

 

Lay Of The Day - Race 5 #10 Diamond Effort $4.60

Third-up here into the Group 2 Schillaci Stakes, Diamond Effort comes here off an okay effort in the Group One Moir Stakes last time behind Pippie.

She raced impressively last prep after recording four wins back-to-back, but they were all in much weaker races than what she faces here. 

Her win first-up was good, but has to take another step here to be competitive in this race. 

The form lines of Alfa Oro, Dirty Work and even Octane all read stronger than Diamond Effort, and I have her marked much longer in the market than her current quote. 

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Author Biography

Lewis Willoughby

Lewis Willoughby

Lewis lives and breathes horse racing, focusing his form analysis on Melbourne metropolitan meetings. He's an up and coming star in the industry, featuring in Best Bets and having written for The Age and The Sun Herald, as well as guest experiences on RSN927am.

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