26/10/19 Horse racing tips and best bets: The Cox Plate 2019

Distance	2040m
Grade	Group 1
Track Rating	Good 4
Prizemoney	$5,000,000
Class	WFA
2018 winner	Winx ($1.24)

This year's edition of the Cox Plate certainly has a much different feel due to the absence of Winx, who now enjoys retirement. 

The field assembled should provide a more robust betting opportunity for punters than recent years, and you can expect to see a number of strong betting moves on the day.

I am with one who comes via the Epsom and looks to have plenty of upside when compared to many of these. 

 

 Moonee Valley Track Traits

The Moonee Valley surface is currently rated a Good 4, with the rail in the true position the entire circuit and some rain predicted for Saturday.

Given the rail position and a rain affected surface likely, I expect the fast draining Moonee Valley circuit to still race fair.  

As always, a close watch is advised early to determine any fast lanes or bias.

  

 Racing Market Movers

Castelvecchio has come in for strong support in early betting, firming from an opening quote of $12.00 to now trade at $7.50.

Race favourite Lys Gracieux is on the drift, easing from $3.60 to $3.80.

 

 Key Runners

  #2 Avilius $12

Won well in Sydney two starts back when dominant in the George Main Stakes over 1600m at Randwick.

He wasn't too far off them (1.7 lengths) last start in the Caulfield Stakes over 2000m and is now rock hard fit. 

Draws well in barrier 7 and trust Kerrin McEvoy will follow the right horse to give him a nice tow into it. Very wary. 

 

  #3 Kluger $18 

Arrives from Japan to tackle this first-up and is considered the lesser of the two Japanese hopes.

This would be a training performance for the ages if they happened to win, following a nine week break.

Expect a market drift. Avoid. 

 

 #5 Homesman $23

Was a huge run in the Underwood Stakes to finish 2 of 12, then did enough in the Caulfield Stakes last start when finishing sixth to show that he's still on target.

They should roll forward from the wide draw in gate 16 and if they drop anchor at any stage throughout, expect him to be there fighting out the finish. 

The current $23 in betting looks too big to my eye. The value runner. 

 

 #6 Kings Will Dream $21

Was blessed in the run last start at Flemington, when he won the Turnbull Stakes after having all the favours from a luxury midfield position.

I suspect that even with luck here, he looks a shade below a few of the absolute topliners.

Prefer others. 

 

 #7 Te Akau Shark $16

Brings strong Sydney form into this race. Pit in a bottler at his Australian debut before he was slightly unlucky in the Epsom Handicap, where excuses could be made for him not winning.

He is lightly raced (9:5-3-0) and looks to have more upside than most.

The Kiwi's are very shrewd and will have the right plan form gate 18. Expect the big syndicates to back him late. Yes. 

 

 #8 Danceteria $18

"Dancer" as the ownership group call him, is in this race up to his eyeballs!

He was outstanding winning the Group 1 in Germany, before having a slight setback when an abnormal scope forced them to abort an Australian lead-up run.

Reports are he is right back on track and showing plenty at trackwork. Include in everything. Yes. 

 

 #9 Lys Gracieux $3.60 > $3.80

No doubt she is very good, however I strongly believe we are getting well under the odds here.

Following the Japanese heroics in the Caulfield Cup, every mug and his dog will be on this horse. As a result, she's likely to be very much overbet.

The Group One credentials are strong, but I will be taking her on at the current price of $3.80. Lay.  

 

 #10 Magic Wand $14

Is Group One placed at her past two starts, both in big international races.

Trainer Aidan O'Brien is an absolute magician and if they have targeted this race, the mare must be respected.

She is very hard to assess and I expect the market to tell us everything late. If she drifts in the last two minutes of betting, the horse won't be winning. 

 

 #11 Cape Of Good Hope $12

Must be considered a good hope here following the Caulfield Stakes win first-up, where he ran on strongly from well back.

He will need to peak up again to be winning this, although he has plenty of ticks including Mark Zahra to ride.  

I have a few ahead of him, however he certainly would not surprise. Include in wider exotics. 

 

  #12 Mystic Journey $7 

It appears as though she's not suited to this distance, as evident in the Turnbull last start where she needed to show more over the the concluding stages.

Her preparation has been very disjointed, as connections have dodged wet tracks and found unsuitable races.

I'm inclined to oppose at the current price ($7), however expect her to get right out to backable odds late. Wait for a much better price on the day.

  

 

 #13 Verry Elleegant $18 

Won the Hill Stakes at Randwick last start, which led the mugs to band together and declare "she is back in business". I'm not so sure.

In a high pressure race on a busy day here, she is likely to be back to her old tricks of over-racing. Happy to risk and expect a market drift.  

 

 #14 Castelvecchio $12 > $7.50

Is all quality and will simply eat up the 2040 meter distance here. 

He has an electrifying turn of foot late and just missed behind the very smart Shadow Hero last start at Randwick.  

He just needs to handle the tighter Moonee Valley circuit to be charging late and fighting out the finish. Yes.

 

 

Of The Others

#15 Humidor loves this race and has placed in it at his past two attempts. If he gains a start, he is certainly a top 4 hope at good odds.

 

 Best Racing Tips

1^st  Te Akau Shark

2^nd  Danceteria 

3^rd  Homesman

4^th  Castelvecchio 

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