This year’s edition of the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes presents as a strong and wide-open affair.
You can be forgiven for making a case for at least six runners.
Behemoth will be out to make it consecutive Group One victories, but will need to break a longstanding weight record with 60kg on his back.
Meanwhile, talented gallopers Banquo and Tagaloa are in with a light-weight and will be out to capitalise on carrying the minimum.
Cascadian and Superstorm are looking for 1600m, but with the speed-on expect them to be flashing out wide.
While there are multiple winning chances in a race that could see plenty of value land in the first four, there can only be one past the post first and we seek to identify the most likely.
Track Conditions
The track is currently rated a Good 4, but expect racing in the Soft range with light showers forecasted across Melbourne for the remainder of the week.
The rail is out 3m the entire circuit after being in the true position last meeting, where the track played even with no bias evident.
With this in mind, I expect the track to once again play fair.
The Map
The race will be run at a genuine tempo with Begood Toya Mother (4) to lead from Streets Of Avalon (17), while Dollar For Dollar (7) can press forward from a good draw to take up the box seat.
Banquo (6) who’s drawn to Dollar For Dollar’s inside, can score the dream run in behind the speed with cover.
Age Of Chivalry (13) maps awkwardly from the wide draw and could be caught three-wide without cover.
Behemoth (5) draws well again and maps to get a similar box seat run that saw him victorious at this track and trip last start.
The three-year-old Tagaloa (12) will be taken back and ridden with a sit and should get every chance off the hot speed. However, he may struggle to find cover and will need to loop the field in his first attempt at 1400m.
Cascadian’s (8) drawn well in barrier 8, but will once again be dictated by how he steps out of the machine. If he can jump cleanly, he’s a genuine winning hope.
Expect the Perth raider Superstorm (18) to be ridden cold from out wide and to be storming home late out wide.
Analysis & Tips
1st Banquo $12
I'm keen on the chances of the Danny O’Brien four-year-old, who gets in here with the minimum 54kgs and maps to get the dream run in transit.
His first-up run over 1100m looked plain on face value, but he improved sharply second-up in the Bobbie Lewis when narrowly beaten by Zoutori while finishing ahead of Group One winner Tofane.
Now third-up and finding 1400m will see him ready to peak at a distance that saw him narrowly edged out in the final stride by star juvenile Microphone last preparation.
His fifth in the Group One Newmarket Handicap in the autumn saw him finish alongside superstar sprinter Gytrash and class won’t be an issue here on the quick backup.
2nd Behemoth
Was a strong last start winner at this track and trip in the Memsie Stakes, where he stalked a hot speed against similar opposition.
He’s set to lug 60kgs, but he’s a big animal who can carry weight and will be peaking third-up.
Williams stays in the saddle and from barrier 5, he maps to get an identical run in transit and will be finding the line if he gets the breaks at the top of the straight.
3rd Dollar For Dollar
Presents here over the odds after two impressive runs at 1100m and 1200m.
Now third-up and finding 1400m, he's ready to peak and replicate a similar run that saw him finish a narrow second in the 2018 edition of this race.
4th Cascadian
His last start was superb, after clocking the fastest late splits of the race and now presents here third-up and ready to peak.
I’d much prefer to see him over 1600m, however if jumps well then he could come into contention.
He’s a genuine winning hope who can produce blistering late splits and will be benefited by the hot speed up front.