This week, we target two over-bet favourites at Flemington, both facing the testing straight course and each appearing vulnerable at their current short quotes.
Early in the card, a Ciaron Maher-trained filly drops in grade but comes off a soft betting performance last start that casts doubt on her current form.
Later in the day, a last-start winner who steps up in grade and tackles the straight for the first time could quickly find himself out of his depth.
Jimmy Beeson nailed both his Lays last week.
Looking for some of his tips? His Early Market Movers drop Friday & produce plenty of winners.
The Ciaron Maher/Craig Williams combination has inflated the market here, with Duchess Zou over-bet as punters latch onto the stable and jockey combo.
She’s dropping back in grade after placing 3rd in the Creswick Stakes behind She’s An Artist.
However the quality of that form line is now under scrutiny, with questions around the strength of the opposition.
Importantly, she drifted heavily in betting last start ($7.50 out to $13 late), which often points to stable uncertainty or a horse not thriving at home.
Although this field lacks the class of her last assignment, the price offers no value and the risk is high in what could be a tactical affair down the straight.
Market drift expected.
Lay.
La Fracas looks to have hit his ceiling, stepping up sharply to Benchmark 86 company here after wins in significantly weaker Benchmark 70 races.
The back-to-back wins will ensure he is over-supported by recreational punters, but this is a serious jump in quality and could quickly expose any limitations.
This is his first try down the famous Flemington straight, a challenge that trips up even the most talented gallopers.
Many horses get lost on debut down the straight without the guide of a turning rail or inside horse.
Expect sharp layers to target him late on the exchange, with $3+ likely to be available by the jump.
The setup is against him.
Avoid.
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