It was another easy watch last week with both St. Lawrence and Autumn Angel flopping in their respective races at the short quotes.
The mugs will be stinging but not those who followed our advice.
This week we focus on two vulnerable favourites at Eagle Farm, who have both attracted the J Mac tax and appear excellent risks.
Midway through the card a high-profile runner has not returned well and strikes a race with good depth.
Whilst later in the card a Kiwi raider arrives second-up after travel fatigue.
With only the one run at 1400m, she looks well underdone for a stiff 1600m test here against some fit locals.
Jimmy Beeson continues to correctly highlight the dud favourites in feature races.
Looking for more of his tips? His Early Market Movers drop Friday.
Eagle Farm Race 5 #3 Yellow Brick $2.50
This gelding has been clearly priced on his early career heroics and they are well behind him now.
I have no doubts that this is a golden opportunity for bookmakers to “run over” plenty of recreational punters with this early false quote.
This is a deep field with lots of quality engaged and although he has drawn low (gate 3), if they choose to press forward he will still receive early pressure from his outside.
The J Mac tax factor is also in play, with the residual gushing following his recent Group 1 success in Japan.
This is likely to cost punters a small premium in terms of price.
I expect a significant market drift from here, where $3+ and beyond should be widely available come start time.
Avoid.
Eagle Farm Race 7 #1 La Crique $2.60
Happy to take on the gun Kiwi visitor here who looks underdone second-up and will have felt the trip coming over.
There is plenty of fit local competition engaged here, and straight to 1600m following one first-up run at 1400m is not the ideal profile to be launching into the short price.
This runner is another example of where the J Mac tax will apply.
With the market in love with her, I suspect the price will be artificially compressed.
She may look the winner when she peels from a midfield position with cover, however could hit a brick wall inside the final 100m and be swallowed up by a few of the fitter brigade.
Lay.
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