Sandown Hillside plays host to a competitive Saturday program of racing, with nine races over the course of the day.
The track is currently rated a heavy 9 and with more rain predicted, horses will face a properly wet racing surface.
The rail is out 8m the entire circuit and at this set-up, we could see runners come as wide as the outside fence in search of better going.
This ex-NZ filly has been completely missed by the market, coming here on her Australian debut for the new Ben & JD Hayes stable.
I am a massive fan of backing NZ horses first-up in Australia. The stats show they have a very good win/place strike rate and are never far away from saluting.
This filly was last seen winning at Otaki on the 6th of May over 1400m on a bottomless wet track.
On that occasion, she scored comfortably as favourite.
Her heavy track stats are strong. She has two wins from four starts and was only beaten 5 lengths in a Group 3 at Hastings on a wet surface.
She will have heaps of residual fitness from her NZ campaign and strikes a very winnable BM78.
She will go up against her own age and sex, is drawn perfectly in barrier four, only carries 56kg and gets the services of L Nolen.
This is a massive push that they are here to win.
A number of horses in the market have no exposed heavy track form which is a concern, and at the huge double-figure price, she looks a great bet.
Continuing the theme of long priced each-way bets, I think Nerone is a sneaky chance here in the penultimate race of the day.
He is racing very well of late, winning two of his last four.
This form includes a last-start win at Echuca over 1200m, on a very heavy track.
He also ran third in a very competitive BM64 during the Bool carnival behind Rights Of Man who has run well again since.
Two from two undefeated on heavy going is a massive advantage over his rivals here, as well as being rock hard fit and only carrying 52kg after the claim.
Obviously, this is a harder event than others that he has contested of late, but there is a lot in his favour as mentioned above to warrant him being a genuine chance.
The wide draw is actually suitable here. It will allow him to settle wide with cover, avoid interference and find the best going late in the race.
Have to be having something on at the win and place at this price, and he should give you a good sight for your money.